Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 824789past slate · free
refreshed 118h 35m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
gametime 7:20 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
74°F
humidity 91%
wind
2 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
31%
partly cloudy
park
BAL
open · HP→CF 28°
wind impact on total
neutralnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL
Brandon YoungRHP · BAL
xERA 2026
2.08
4.42
xwOBA 2026
0.224
0.323
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.005
0.005
xERA 2025
3.41
4.27
xwOBA 2025
0.288
0.320
Outs/TB 25-26
3.08
1.74
FIP 25-26
2.59
4.78
kwERA 25-26
1.99
4.21
K% 25-26
36.4%
18.6%
BB% 25-26
8.0%
8.7%
IP 25+26 combined
232.3
203.3
ERA actual 2026
1.89
3.65
ERA (L4)
3.38
4.43
WHIP (L4)
1.17
1.43
K% (L4)
31.4%
19.0%
BB% (L4)
10.5%
10.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.33
5.58
L4 window
08/27→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
129 (+1)
97 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.44 (+0.95)
5.16 (+0.49)
Arsenal RV/100
1.89
-0.19
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 1.89
4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.229
Cutter—+2.80xwOBA 0.250
Slider—+1.60xwOBA 0.238
Curveball—+2.10xwOBA 0.157
home arsenal — BAL
RV/100 -0.19
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.340
Split-Finger—-1.20xwOBA 0.293
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.260
Sinker—-0.70xwOBA 0.375
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.331
away · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.963
Σ match
3.057
Σ FRV
+23.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.341
0.353
+8.1
2
2B
Brice Turang
0.346
0.357
+12.5
3
C
William Contreras
0.336
0.342
-3.0
4
1B
Jake Bauers
0.379
0.394
-8.3
5
3B
Joey Ortiz
0.299
0.305
+11.5
6
DH
Christian Yelich
0.311
0.326
+0.0
7
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.316
0.334
+1.3
8
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.354
0.354
+3.6
9
RF
Sal Frelick
0.281
0.292
-1.9
home · BAL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.800
Σ match
2.132
Σ FRV
-4.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Dylan Beavers
0.297
0.222
-8.2
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.396
0.307
-2.7
3
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.320
0.228
+1.2
4
3B
Coby Mayo
0.335
0.260
-1.7
5
DH
Samuel Basallo
0.321
0.238
-3.8
6
2B
Jeremiah Jackson
0.287
0.230
-1.3
7
CF
Colton Cowser
0.315
0.264
+8.9
8
RF
Leody Taveras
0.270
0.209
-1.9
9
C
Carlos Narváez
0.259
0.174
+4.7
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
William Contreras
FRV-3.0
framing-5.2
blocking-1.1
throwing+3.4
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Carlos Narváez
FRV+4.7
framing+2.1
blocking+3.2
throwing-0.6
MIL · Jacob Misiorowski
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs PIT · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
128
136(+9)
129
Location+
100
117(+17)
102
Pitching+
128
155(+27)
132
botStf
65
69(+3)
68
botCmd
55
62(+7)
56
botOvr
63
73(+10)
66
SIERA
2.49
2.20(-0.28)
3.44
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 0.74
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BAL · Brandon Young
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs NYM · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
99(+2)
97
Location+
105
89(-16)
100
Pitching+
101
90(-11)
96
botStf
48
52(+5)
50
botCmd
55
47(-8)
52
botOvr
54
48(-6)
52
SIERA
4.67
5.63(+0.97)
5.16
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.08
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.44]
0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.08)
BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.43]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.28)
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.88
28.4
6.5
0.97
28/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.72
26.5
8.4
0.99
6/22/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.20
30.3
11.1
1.23
3/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.23
22.1
8.1
0.98
0/21/4
stable
Shane Drohan
SWING
MR
3.76
23.7
8.2
3.80
1/3/3
ramping up
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
3.88
21.8
9.9
2.46
6/10/5
ramping down
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.70
19.3
8.3
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
3.97
26.7
14.9
1.29
0/5/5
stable
Colton Gordon
MR
LR
10.38
22.0
6.0
2.33
0/0/0
ramping down
BAL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Grant Wolfram
SETUP
MR
2.65
27.1
6.9
0.80
1/13/3
stable
Yennier Cano
SETUP
SU
2.78
21.7
6.1
0.74
3/13/6
stable
Anthony Nunez
SETUP
MR
3.49
26.9
10.6
1.12
3/7/7
stable
Andrew Kittredge
SETUP
CL
3.79
18.6
5.2
0.87
10/9/11
stable
Rico Garcia
SETUP
CL
3.97
25.5
8.5
0.93
9/18/16
stable
Josh Walker
MR
MR
3.27
23.1
8.5
1.20
1/4/3
ramping down
Alex Hoppe
MR
MR
3.38
24.2
10.2
1.14
1/5/13
stable
Cam Sanders
MR
MR
3.53
28.2
15.3
1.00
3/1/5
stable
Luis De León
unknown
LR
4.13
15.6
6.2
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
3
3 MIL · 0 BAL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
MIL
3 R
6H · 1HR · 6BB · 14K · 15LOB
OBPe 0.343 · SLGe 0.345 · K% 40.0
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 K · relief 6.0 IP · 7 arms
BAL
0 R
4H · 0HR · 3BB · 8K · 12LOB
OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.129 · K% 22.9
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 3 ER · 14 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms
MIL · standout lines
big nights
William Contreras (C) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR
tough nights
Brice Turang (2B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Joey Ortiz (3B) · 0-4 | 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K
Christian Yelich (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
BAL · standout lines
tough nights
Dylan Beavers (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Pete Alonso (1B) · 0-40-for-4
Gunnar Henderson (SS) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K