Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 824546past slate · free
refreshed 123h 50m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rate Field
gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
66°F
humidity 95%
wind
10 mph
in from LF
precip
61%
light drizzle
park
CWS
open · HP→CF 38°
wind impact on total
-0.29 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.29 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Troy MeltonRHP · DET
Davis MartinRHP · CWS
xERA 2026
3.74
4.64
xwOBA 2026
0.299
0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.008
-0.011
xERA 2025
3.64
5.13
xwOBA 2025
0.297
0.347
Outs/TB 25-26
2.26
1.92
FIP 25-26
4.23
4.25
kwERA 25-26
3.94
4.11
K% 25-26
20.0%
18.4%
BB% 25-26
7.8%
7.6%
IP 25+26 combined
156.3
283.7
ERA actual 2026
2.52
3.96
ERA (L4)
6.10
3.29
WHIP (L4)
1.50
1.32
K% (L4)
14.6%
13.6%
BB% (L4)
6.2%
8.5%
IP/gm (L4)
5.17
3.42
L4 window
08/26→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/09→09/09 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
103 (+3)
89 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.72 (+1.36)
5.45 (+0.94)
Arsenal RV/100
0.50
0.25
away arsenal — DET
RV/100 0.50
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.345
Cutter—+2.80xwOBA 0.282
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.291
Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.224
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.330
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.255
home arsenal — CWS
RV/100 0.25
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.318
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.354
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.338
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.257
Cutter—+0.40xwOBA 0.409
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.302
away · DET vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.975
Σ match
3.126
Σ FRV
-21.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kevin McGonigle
0.360
0.387
-1.6
2
2B
Gleyber Torres
0.326
0.336
-1.5
3
3B
Hao-Yu Lee
0.303
0.317
-8.7
4
LF
Riley Greene
0.374
0.403
-5.4
5
C
Eduardo Valencia
0.337
0.345
+1.9
6
CF
Max Clark
0.318
0.332
+2.6
7
1B
Spencer Torkelson
0.313
0.335
-6.0
8
RF
Brett Callahan
0.303
0.319
-1.5
9
SS
John Peck
0.341
0.352
-1.1
home · CWS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.835
Σ match
2.766
Σ FRV
+2.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Sam Antonacci
0.341
0.326
-9.7
2
C
Kyle Teel
0.311
0.288
-1.6
3
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.380
0.355
-4.1
4
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.339
0.341
-2.2
5
DH
Andrew Benintendi
0.306
0.297
-1.6
6
SS
Colson Montgomery
0.301
0.299
+10.0
7
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.295
0.289
+10.8
8
RF
Braden Montgomery
0.324
0.332
+2.6
9
CF
Brenton Doyle
0.238
0.237
-1.4
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Eduardo Valencia
FRV+1.9
framing+1.6
blocking+0.5
throwing-0.1
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Kyle Teel
FRV-1.6
framing-1.9
blocking-0.8
throwing+1.1
DET · Troy Melton
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs TOR · 2.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
102(+2)
103
Location+
100
102(+1)
103
Pitching+
102
105(+3)
107
botStf
53
55(+1)
56
botCmd
55
58(+3)
57
botOvr
54
57(+3)
57
SIERA
4.36
6.80(+2.45)
5.72
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.49
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CWS · Davis Martin
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs Cleveland Guardians · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
90
84(-6)
89
Location+
92
90(-2)
83
Pitching+
83
84(+1)
74
botStf
49
50(+0)
47
botCmd
50
48(-2)
46
botOvr
48
43(-5)
45
SIERA
4.51
4.20(-0.31)
5.45
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-13 → 2026-09-09. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.89
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.