Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 824462past slate · free
refreshed 123h 54m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Great American Ball Park
gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
91°F
humidity 39%
wind
9 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
1%
mostly clear
park
CIN
open · HP→CF 24°
wind impact on total
+0.09 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
David PetersonLHP · CHC
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN
xERA 2026
4.86
5.34
xwOBA 2026
0.337
0.351
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.001
0.000
xERA 2025
4.61
—
xwOBA 2025
0.331
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.00
1.64
FIP 25-26
3.74
4.77
kwERA 25-26
4.09
4.40
K% 25-26
20.4%
17.4%
BB% 25-26
9.4%
9.1%
IP 25+26 combined
306.0
124.3
ERA actual 2026
5.11
5.79
ERA (L4)
4.74
9.87
WHIP (L4)
1.84
1.85
K% (L4)
23.3%
17.6%
BB% (L4)
14.4%
9.4%
IP/gm (L4)
4.75
4.33
L4 window
08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/28→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
90 (+1)
89 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.70 (+0.25)
5.47 (+0.16)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.60
-0.71
away arsenal — CHC
RV/100 -0.60
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.422
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.322
Slider—+1.20xwOBA 0.255
Changeup—-2.40xwOBA 0.305
Curveball—-2.50xwOBA 0.306
home arsenal — CIN
RV/100 -0.71
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.400
Slider—-2.30xwOBA 0.306
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.372
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.296
away · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.922
Σ match
3.298
Σ FRV
+54.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.375
0.424
+26.9
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.338
0.389
+7.5
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.333
0.367
+2.0
4
3B
Alex Bregman
0.322
0.361
+6.6
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.317
0.355
+5.3
6
SS
Nico Hoerner
0.322
0.349
+8.3
7
DH
Michael Conforto
0.331
0.395
-1.8
8
2B
Pedro Ramírez
0.289
0.312
+0.9
9
C
Miguel Amaya
0.295
0.344
-1.4
home · CIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.616
Σ match
3.047
Σ FRV
-3.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Dane Myers
0.312
0.343
-0.6
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.377
0.411
+4.8
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.348
0.374
-4.5
4
DH
Tyler Stephenson
0.330
0.379
-7.8
5
RF
JJ Bleday
0.339
0.372
-2.3
6
2B
Matt McLain
0.297
0.324
+3.6
7
LF
Oswaldo Cabrera
0.148
0.245
-0.7
8
C
Will Banfield
0.171
0.262
-0.2
9
3B
Ke'Bryan Hayes
0.294
0.338
+4.6
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Miguel Amaya
FRV-1.4
framing-0.1
blocking-0.7
throwing-0.0
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Will Banfield
FRV-0.2
framing-0.1
blocking-0.1
throwing—
CHC · David Peterson
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs ATL · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
89
90(+0)
90
Location+
100
102(+2)
94
Pitching+
93
97(+4)
88
botStf
52
53(+1)
51
botCmd
50
51(+1)
45
botOvr
50
51(+1)
46
SIERA
4.45
3.22(-1.23)
4.70
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.65
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CIN · Rhett Lowder
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs LAD · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
87
84(-2)
89
Location+
102
122(+20)
104
Pitching+
91
112(+21)
94
botStf
47
47(+0)
49
botCmd
55
62(+7)
55
botOvr
52
58(+6)
52
SIERA
5.31
4.75(-0.56)
5.47
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.34
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.39–0.50]
0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Javier Assad (4.29)
CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.50]
0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.90)
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
4.08
25.2
8.7
0.88
3/2/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.81
31.3
13.1
1.15
6/14/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
MR
4.10
25.5
8.7
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.89
29.1
9.0
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
5.00
16.3
7.0
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
4.03
20.9
11.1
1.12
3/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.56
18.8
7.2
4.67
2/1/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.86
17.4
8.2
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
Edward Cabrera
SP
MR
5.30
20.6
10.0
5.17
0/0/0
ramping down
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.32
25.9
6.6
0.91
24/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.67
27.4
16.3
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.76
23.9
12.8
0.95
2/21/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.87
19.2
9.4
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.05
18.8
14.7
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.51
31.3
12.9
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.84
24.3
7.2
1.00
1/10/6
stable
Zach McCambley
MR
MR
4.54
21.3
12.8
1.08
0/0/3
ramping down
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
10
9 CHC · 1 CIN
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
CHC
9 R
13H · 3HR · 4BB · 10K · 16LOB
OBPe 0.386 · SLGe 0.600 · K% 22.7
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms
CIN
1 R
4H · 1HR · 1BB · 8K · 10LOB
OBPe 0.156 · SLGe 0.226 · K% 25.0
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 9 ER · 10 K · relief 6.0 IP · 4 arms
CHC · standout lines
big nights
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 3-5 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR · 3 H · 7 TB