Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 824381past slate · free
refreshed 123h 53m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Progressive Field
gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
70°F
humidity 85%
wind
7 mph
in from CF
precip
33%
light drizzle
park
CLE
open · HP→CF 25°
wind impact on total
-0.19 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jack PerkinsRHP · ATH
Gavin WilliamsRHP · CLE
xERA 2026
4.07
3.77
xwOBA 2026
0.311
0.300
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.042
-0.007
xERA 2025
3.64
4.30
xwOBA 2025
0.297
0.321
Outs/TB 25-26
1.89
2.19
FIP 25-26
4.57
3.92
kwERA 25-26
3.62
3.10
K% 25-26
24.9%
29.0%
BB% 25-26
10.1%
9.8%
IP 25+26 combined
148.7
341.7
ERA actual 2026
6.14
3.78
ERA (L4)
3.66
4.19
WHIP (L4)
1.47
1.24
K% (L4)
26.7%
40.5%
BB% (L4)
11.6%
9.5%
IP/gm (L4)
4.92
4.83
L4 window
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/25→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (−3)
102 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.02 (−0.36)
2.46 (−0.64)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.69
0.31
away arsenal — ATH
RV/100 -0.69
4-Seam Fastball—-2.30xwOBA 0.382
Sweeper—+0.50xwOBA 0.279
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.204
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.377
Sinker—-4.30xwOBA 0.346
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.243
home arsenal — CLE
RV/100 0.31
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.225
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.301
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.270
Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.427
Cutter—-0.80xwOBA 0.401
away · ATH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.687
Σ match
2.620
Σ FRV
-23.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Henry Bolte
0.317
0.303
+3.1
2
DH
Shea Langeliers
0.362
0.353
-3.6
3
RF
Lawrence Butler
0.325
0.298
-10.6
4
3B
Zack Gelof
0.313
0.292
+0.5
5
2B
Donovan Walton
0.331
0.332
-7.1
6
1B
Tommy White
0.293
0.280
-4.6
7
SS
Alika Williams
0.242
0.243
+2.7
8
C
Jonah Heim
0.285
0.274
-6.1
9
CF
Denzel Clarke
0.219
0.246
+2.0
home · CLE vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.870
Σ match
2.877
Σ FRV
+3.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Steven Kwan
0.324
0.318
+7.0
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.329
0.333
+1.9
3
RF
Chase DeLauter
0.345
0.342
+1.7
4
DH
Jo Adell
0.326
0.323
-9.3
5
2B
Travis Bazzana
0.304
0.315
-2.7
6
1B
Nathaniel Lowe
0.338
0.329
-3.0
7
LF
Angel Martínez
0.307
0.307
+1.1
8
C
Patrick Bailey
0.305
0.307
+6.1
9
SS
Angel Genao
0.292
0.302
+0.9
defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)
Jonah Heim
FRV-6.1
framing-1.2
blocking-2.2
throwing-1.6
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Patrick Bailey
FRV+6.1
framing+4.5
blocking-1.6
throwing+3.2
ATH · Jack Perkins
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs TB · 6.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
97(-2)
96
Location+
100
98(-2)
98
Pitching+
99
100(+0)
96
botStf
55
55(+0)
53
botCmd
54
43(-11)
50
botOvr
55
48(-8)
51
SIERA
4.38
2.33(-2.05)
4.02
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.14
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CLE · Gavin Williams
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs CWS · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
105
104(-1)
102
Location+
105
107(+1)
108
Pitching+
109
114(+4)
113
botStf
57
60(+3)
59
botCmd
55
54(-1)
54
botOvr
57
58(+2)
57
SIERA
3.09
3.92(+0.83)
2.46
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.31
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.50]
0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Yunior Tur (5.04)
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]
0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.19)
ATH
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Luis Medina
SETUP
SU
3.57
29.7
12.0
1.38
0/12/10
stable
Hogan Harris
SETUP
CL
4.12
28.4
13.4
0.93
15/13/13
stable
Drew Rom
MR
MR
3.09
25.0
10.3
1.13
0/3/1
stable
Geoff Hartlieb
MR
MR
3.50
17.1
9.5
2.13
0/2/3
ramping down
Seth Johnson
MR
LR
4.29
26.9
12.7
1.13
0/0/4
stable
Elvis Alvarado
MR
CL
4.64
27.5
11.4
1.08
6/9/11
stable
Chris Roycroft
MR
MR
6.59
14.3
9.7
1.28
1/1/6
ramping up
Yunior Tur
MR
MR
8.99
18.2
15.2
2.00
0/0/0
insufficient data
Scott Blewett
unknown
MR
3.06
21.4
7.9
—
0/2/0
—
CLE
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Cade Smith
CLOSER
CL
2.28
35.6
7.8
1.05
38/0/37
stable
Erik Sabrowski
SETUP
SU
2.92
36.6
15.2
0.78
1/25/2
stable
Matt Festa
SETUP
MR
3.37
24.6
7.1
0.97
1/7/13
stable
Hunter Gaddis
SETUP
SU
3.64
22.2
8.8
0.86
1/30/2
stable
Tim Herrin
SETUP
MR
4.23
22.3
12.2
0.79
0/15/5
stable
Daniel Espino
MR
MR
4.29
37.3
11.9
1.00
0/0/1
stable
Craig Yoho
MR
MR
4.63
25.3
10.8
1.33
0/3/5
stable
Connor Brogdon
unknown
MR
6.03
21.4
4.3
—
1/4/0
—
Slade Cecconi
SP
LR
4.55
18.9
7.4
5.21
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
1
0 ATH · 1 CLE
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
ATH
0 R
6H · 0HR · 1BB · 13K · 13LOB
OBPe 0.219 · SLGe 0.226 · K% 40.6
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms
CLE
1 R
7H · 0HR · 1BB · 7K · 11LOB
OBPe 0.258 · SLGe 0.267 · K% 22.6
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 0 ER · 13 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms
ATH · standout lines
tough nights
Shea Langeliers (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Lawrence Butler (RF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, CS0-for-3 · 2 K