SEA @ COL

Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 824300past slate · free
refreshed 121h 22m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 3:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
73°F
humidity 41%
wind
8 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
clear
park
COL
open · HP→CF 0°
CFHP1B3BIN
wind impact on total
-0.19 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricKade AndersonLHP · SEATomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL
xERA 20264.246.61
xwOBA 20260.3170.384
wOBA−xwOBA 20260.028-0.020
xERA 2025—5.81
xwOBA 2025—0.366
Outs/TB 25-261.691.50
FIP 25-264.445.42
kwERA 25-263.944.26
K% 25-2619.6%14.9%
BB% 25-267.5%5.4%
IP 25+26 combined25.3299.7
ERA actual 20265.335.49
ERA (L4)5.498.57
WHIP (L4)1.471.62
K% (L4)18.8%15.3%
BB% (L4)7.1%6.1%
IP/gm (L4)4.925.25
L4 window08/29→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)96 (−0)86 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)3.94 (−1.01)5.08 (+0.11)
Arsenal RV/100-1.11-0.99

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -1.11
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-1.40xwOBA 0.368
  • Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.290
  • Changeup—-1.60xwOBA 0.268

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -0.99
  • Split-Finger—+0.00xwOBA 0.312
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.416
  • Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.445
  • Sweeper—-1.00xwOBA 0.327
  • Cutter—-2.60xwOBA 0.480
  • Slider—-2.50xwOBA 0.312
  • Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.331

away · SEA vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.899
Σ match
3.493
Σ FRV
-29.6
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1SSJ.P. Crawford0.3230.396-9.1
2LFRandy Arozarena0.3480.421-7.3
3RFDominic Canzone0.3560.444-0.0
4CCal Raleigh0.3130.393-4.9
5CFJulio Rodríguez0.3330.393-0.7
61BJosh Naylor0.3130.382+2.4
72BCole Young0.3140.384-5.0
8DHLazaro Montes0.3570.376-0.7
93BBrock Rodden0.2420.304-4.4

home · COL vs LHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.670
Σ match
2.697
Σ FRV
-7.9
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1LFJake McCarthy0.3260.335-0.9
23BConnor Norby0.3070.299-2.2
3DHHunter Goodman0.3220.334-2.1
41BTJ Rumfield0.3350.338+4.4
5CFCole Carrigg0.3090.315+0.3
62BAdael Amador0.2540.268+0.7
7CBrett Sullivan0.2860.301-5.5
8RFJordan Beck0.2510.244-3.3
9SSEzequiel Tovar0.2800.262+0.8

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh
  • FRV-4.9
  • framing-3.7
  • blocking+2.7
  • throwing-3.9

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Brett Sullivan
  • FRV-5.5
  • framing-4.5
  • blocking-0.1
  • throwing-0.9

SEA · Kade Anderson

Last outing 2026-09-14 vs LAA · 4.1 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+9699(+3)96
Location+103112(+9)105
Pitching+100109(+9)101
botStf5250(-1)50
botCmd5559(+5)57
botOvr5456(+3)54
SIERA4.952.77(-2.18)3.94

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.68

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Tomoyuki Sugano

Last outing 2026-09-14 vs SD · 5.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+8287(+5)86
Location+10396(-8)104
Pitching+8982(-7)93
botStf4543(-2)46
botCmd5455(+1)57
botOvr4951(+1)52
SIERA4.965.90(+0.94)5.08

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.65

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.47]
0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.60)
COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.48R / inningband [0.44–0.53]
0.114 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Zach Agnos (4.69)

SEA

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Andrés MuñozCLOSERCL3.0637.69.70.9328/0/29stable
José A. FerrerSETUPSU3.9517.96.50.893/13/7stable
Gabe SpeierSETUPMR4.0323.08.20.821/21/5stable
Eduard BazardoSETUPMR4.6722.97.90.940/26/2stable
Hoby MilnerSETUPMR4.6812.76.10.941/6/7stable
Seranthony DomínguezSETUPSU4.7024.912.40.8912/7/18stable
Cooper CriswellMRLR3.6519.18.31.181/3/12stable
Michael RuckerMRMR4.0625.98.21.050/1/6stable
Carlos VargasunknownMR3.0921.53.1—0/1/0—

COL

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Jordan RomanoCLOSERCL3.8525.212.60.7915/1/13stable
Jaden HillSETUPMR4.2321.313.20.832/13/4stable
Juan MejiaSETUPSU4.2720.612.91.104/9/16stable
Brennan BernardinoOPENERSU3.5618.45.70.862/13/7stable
Jimmy HergetOPENERMR5.3919.511.30.993/10/10stable
Zach AgnosSWINGMR4.4714.68.72.282/1/10stable
Mark ManfrediunknownMR3.0223.315.0—0/0/0—
Nick FrassounknownMR4.3823.67.9—0/0/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
3
2 SEA · 1 COL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

SEA

2 R

4H · 0HR · 3BB · 6K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.242 · SLGe 0.172 · K% 18.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

COL

1 R

5H · 1HR · 2BB · 10K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.313 · K% 29.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

SEA · standout lines

tough nights
  • Josh Naylor (1B) · 0-4 | CS0-for-4

COL · standout lines

big nights
  • Hunter Goodman (DH) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
tough nights
  • Connor Norby (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
  • Brett Sullivan (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks