Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 824300past slate · free
refreshed 121h 22m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Coors Field
gametime 3:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
73°F
humidity 41%
wind
8 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
clear
park
COL
open · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
-0.19 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Kade AndersonLHP · SEA
Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL
xERA 2026
4.24
6.61
xwOBA 2026
0.317
0.384
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.028
-0.020
xERA 2025
—
5.81
xwOBA 2025
—
0.366
Outs/TB 25-26
1.69
1.50
FIP 25-26
4.44
5.42
kwERA 25-26
3.94
4.26
K% 25-26
19.6%
14.9%
BB% 25-26
7.5%
5.4%
IP 25+26 combined
25.3
299.7
ERA actual 2026
5.33
5.49
ERA (L4)
5.49
8.57
WHIP (L4)
1.47
1.62
K% (L4)
18.8%
15.3%
BB% (L4)
7.1%
6.1%
IP/gm (L4)
4.92
5.25
L4 window
08/29→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (−0)
86 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.94 (−1.01)
5.08 (+0.11)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.11
-0.99
away arsenal — SEA
RV/100 -1.11
4-Seam Fastball—-1.40xwOBA 0.368
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.290
Changeup—-1.60xwOBA 0.268
home arsenal — COL
RV/100 -0.99
Split-Finger—+0.00xwOBA 0.312
4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.416
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.445
Sweeper—-1.00xwOBA 0.327
Cutter—-2.60xwOBA 0.480
Slider—-2.50xwOBA 0.312
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.331
away · SEA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.899
Σ match
3.493
Σ FRV
-29.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
J.P. Crawford
0.323
0.396
-9.1
2
LF
Randy Arozarena
0.348
0.421
-7.3
3
RF
Dominic Canzone
0.356
0.444
-0.0
4
C
Cal Raleigh
0.313
0.393
-4.9
5
CF
Julio Rodríguez
0.333
0.393
-0.7
6
1B
Josh Naylor
0.313
0.382
+2.4
7
2B
Cole Young
0.314
0.384
-5.0
8
DH
Lazaro Montes
0.357
0.376
-0.7
9
3B
Brock Rodden
0.242
0.304
-4.4
home · COL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.670
Σ match
2.697
Σ FRV
-7.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jake McCarthy
0.326
0.335
-0.9
2
3B
Connor Norby
0.307
0.299
-2.2
3
DH
Hunter Goodman
0.322
0.334
-2.1
4
1B
TJ Rumfield
0.335
0.338
+4.4
5
CF
Cole Carrigg
0.309
0.315
+0.3
6
2B
Adael Amador
0.254
0.268
+0.7
7
C
Brett Sullivan
0.286
0.301
-5.5
8
RF
Jordan Beck
0.251
0.244
-3.3
9
SS
Ezequiel Tovar
0.280
0.262
+0.8
defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)
Cal Raleigh
FRV-4.9
framing-3.7
blocking+2.7
throwing-3.9
defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)
Brett Sullivan
FRV-5.5
framing-4.5
blocking-0.1
throwing-0.9
SEA · Kade Anderson
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs LAA · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
99(+3)
96
Location+
103
112(+9)
105
Pitching+
100
109(+9)
101
botStf
52
50(-1)
50
botCmd
55
59(+5)
57
botOvr
54
56(+3)
54
SIERA
4.95
2.77(-2.18)
3.94
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.68
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
COL · Tomoyuki Sugano
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs SD · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
82
87(+5)
86
Location+
103
96(-8)
104
Pitching+
89
82(-7)
93
botStf
45
43(-2)
46
botCmd
54
55(+1)
57
botOvr
49
51(+1)
52
SIERA
4.96
5.90(+0.94)
5.08
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.65
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.