Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 824139past slate · free
refreshed 123h 50m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Daikin Park
gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
90°F
humidity 63%
wind
3 mph
in from LF
precip
1%
overcast
park
HOU
retractable · HP→CF 345°
wind impact on total
-0.01 R/Gnone in
In wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Martín PérezLHP · ATL
Hunter BrownRHP · HOU
xERA 2026
4.58
3.30
xwOBA 2026
0.328
0.282
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.033
0.017
xERA 2025
5.37
3.16
xwOBA 2025
0.354
0.278
Outs/TB 25-26
2.33
2.58
FIP 25-26
4.24
3.41
kwERA 25-26
4.47
3.17
K% 25-26
17.9%
27.9%
BB% 25-26
10.2%
9.3%
IP 25+26 combined
193.7
282.3
ERA actual 2026
3.07
3.43
ERA (L4)
2.82
3.18
WHIP (L4)
1.48
1.15
K% (L4)
15.0%
37.4%
BB% (L4)
12.0%
6.6%
IP/gm (L4)
5.58
5.67
L4 window
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/28→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
84 (−3)
104 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
6.41 (+1.89)
2.50 (−1.63)
Arsenal RV/100
0.45
0.16
away arsenal — ATL
RV/100 0.45
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.360
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.283
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.344
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.305
4-Seam Fastball—-3.00xwOBA 0.389
home arsenal — HOU
RV/100 0.16
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.223
Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.306
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.247
Slider—-2.40xwOBA 0.301
Changeup—-1.90xwOBA 0.426
away · ATL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.909
Σ match
2.635
Σ FRV
+14.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Drake Baldwin
0.368
0.340
+0.3
2
DH
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.369
0.336
-4.9
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.353
0.313
+11.0
4
CF
Michael Harris II
0.339
0.291
+11.0
5
3B
Mauricio Dubón
0.307
0.278
+3.3
6
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.280
0.249
-3.4
7
LF
Mike Yastrzemski
0.307
0.285
-1.1
8
RF
Brewer Hicklen
0.365
0.318
-0.5
9
SS
Ha-Seong Kim
0.221
0.223
-1.6
home · HOU vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.793
Σ match
2.997
Σ FRV
-4.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Jeremy Peña
0.327
0.357
-3.1
2
LF
Yordan Alvarez
0.442
0.457
-2.7
3
3B
Isaac Paredes
0.322
0.353
+2.2
4
DH
Jose Altuve
0.273
0.301
-10.0
5
C
Yainer Diaz
0.303
0.319
-4.2
6
1B
Christian Walker
0.299
0.324
+6.3
7
RF
Cam Smith
0.317
0.330
+2.2
8
2B
Nick Allen
0.250
0.267
-0.1
9
CF
Brice Matthews
0.260
0.288
+5.3
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Drake Baldwin
FRV+0.3
framing+2.9
blocking+0.5
throwing-3.1
defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)
Yainer Diaz
FRV-4.2
framing-3.6
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.2
ATL · Martín Pérez
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs CHC · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
86
77(-9)
84
Location+
102
96(-7)
100
Pitching+
92
81(-10)
86
botStf
42
44(+1)
44
botCmd
56
52(-4)
53
botOvr
48
46(-2)
46
SIERA
4.52
6.99(+2.47)
6.41
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.38
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
HOU · Hunter Brown
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs KC · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
105(+2)
104
Location+
96
102(+7)
100
Pitching+
101
110(+9)
105
botStf
52
52(-0)
51
botCmd
50
49(-1)
49
botOvr
51
51(-0)
50
SIERA
4.13
2.48(-1.66)
2.50
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.65
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
6
4 ATL · 2 HOU
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
ATL
4 R
6H · 1HR · 4BB · 14K · 13LOB
OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.303 · K% 37.8
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 2 ER · 11 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms
HOU
2 R
8H · 2HR · 2BB · 11K · 15LOB
OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.400 · K% 29.7
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 4 ER · 14 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms
ATL · standout lines
big nights
Mike Yastrzemski (LF) · 2-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR
tough nights
Matt Olson (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Brewer Hicklen (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Ha-Seong Kim (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
HOU · standout lines
big nights
Jose Altuve (DH) · 2-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Yainer Diaz (C) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
tough nights
Christian Walker (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K