Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 823975past slate · free
refreshed 121h 27m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Angel Stadium
gametime 4:07 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
80°F
humidity 57%
wind
6 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
overcast
park
LAA
open · HP→CF 58°
wind impact on total
+0.17 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.17 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Dean KremerRHP · MIN
Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA
xERA 2026
4.55
5.06
xwOBA 2026
0.327
0.343
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.009
-0.010
xERA 2025
3.88
3.53
xwOBA 2025
0.306
0.293
Outs/TB 25-26
1.84
1.75
FIP 25-26
4.30
5.58
kwERA 25-26
3.71
4.32
K% 25-26
21.0%
18.6%
BB% 25-26
6.9%
9.6%
IP 25+26 combined
249.0
105.0
ERA actual 2026
5.35
4.88
ERA (L4)
5.79
2.35
WHIP (L4)
1.45
1.09
K% (L4)
20.0%
21.5%
BB% (L4)
8.8%
8.6%
IP/gm (L4)
4.67
5.75
L4 window
08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (+5)
100 (+7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.44 (+0.10)
3.84 (−1.68)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.46
-0.47
away arsenal — MIN
RV/100 -0.46
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.392
Split-Finger—+0.20xwOBA 0.243
Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.273
Sinker—-1.60xwOBA 0.445
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.403
home arsenal — LAA
RV/100 -0.47
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.323
Sweeper—-0.20xwOBA 0.282
Split-Finger—+0.30xwOBA 0.256
Sinker—-4.70xwOBA 0.515
away · MIN vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.690
Σ match
3.051
Σ FRV
-4.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Walker Jenkins
0.319
0.330
+0.3
2
3B
Brooks Lee
0.275
0.331
-0.5
3
2B
Kody Clemens
0.335
0.368
-3.1
4
DH
Josh Bell
0.335
0.356
-1.0
5
RF
Alan Roden
0.342
0.342
-1.3
6
1B
Royce Lewis
0.307
0.372
-1.5
7
C
Victor Caratini
0.309
0.366
+0.6
8
LF
Emmanuel Rodriguez
0.343
0.335
+1.2
9
SS
Ben Ross
0.125
0.253
+0.3
home · LAA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.683
Σ match
3.036
Σ FRV
-5.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Zach Neto
0.312
0.356
-1.9
2
DH
Mike Trout
0.378
0.410
-3.9
3
LF
Wade Meckler
0.310
0.348
+2.1
4
1B
Vaughn Grissom
0.308
0.350
-5.7
5
C
Moisés Ballesteros
0.296
0.336
-2.2
6
3B
Denzer Guzman
0.269
0.301
-0.1
7
RF
Josh Lowe
0.284
0.320
+5.6
8
CF
Jose Siri
0.301
0.338
+2.2
9
2B
Christian Moore
0.225
0.277
-1.3
defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Victor Caratini
FRV+0.6
framing+2.6
blocking+1.0
throwing-3.9
defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)
Moisés Ballesteros
FRV-2.2
framing-1.7
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.2
MIN · Dean Kremer
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs NYY · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
98(+7)
96
Location+
95
93(-2)
97
Pitching+
88
81(-7)
90
botStf
45
45(-0)
45
botCmd
48
58(+9)
56
botOvr
46
49(+3)
49
SIERA
4.35
3.72(-0.62)
4.44
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.90
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
LAA · Ryan Johnson
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs SEA · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
93
105(+12)
100
Location+
91
97(+5)
102
Pitching+
86
94(+8)
101
botStf
48
51(+3)
50
botCmd
50
53(+3)
52
botOvr
51
57(+6)
55
SIERA
5.51
2.88(-2.63)
3.84
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.52
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.45)
LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.35–0.47]
0.096 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Sam Bachman (4.28)
MIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Yoendrys Gómez
CLOSER
CL
4.54
21.5
13.5
1.12
22/7/26
ramping down
Jeff Hoffman
SETUP
SU
2.35
35.3
9.8
0.94
5/22/16
stable
Kody Funderburk
SETUP
MR
3.78
21.4
12.6
0.94
1/13/1
stable
Taylor Rogers
SETUP
MR
4.30
19.6
11.7
0.82
2/9/10
stable
Andrew Morris
OPENER
MR
3.14
21.1
8.1
1.31
4/23/6
ramping down
Tommy Nance
MR
MR
3.78
26.7
9.0
1.04
0/7/4
stable
A.J. Minter
MR
SU
4.28
22.7
4.5
1.00
1/9/8
stable
Travis Adams
MR
LR
4.29
23.5
10.3
1.46
3/1/6
stable
LAA
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Sam Bachman
SETUP
MR
4.74
23.2
13.8
1.17
1/17/4
ramping down
Tayler Saucedo
MR
SU
2.40
29.6
6.2
0.56
0/9/0
stable
José Fermin
MR
MR
3.86
27.0
10.6
1.11
1/8/7
stable
Ryan Watson
MR
SU
3.88
20.7
7.6
1.61
3/8/21
stable
Mitch Farris
MR
LR
4.61
24.9
10.9
2.12
1/1/6
stable
Blake Weiman
unknown
MR
3.34
19.7
2.8
—
0/3/0
—
Ben Joyce
unknown
CL
3.55
29.5
14.8
—
5/2/0
—
Luke Murphy
unknown
MR
3.67
23.7
13.2
—
0/5/0
—
Sammy Peralta
unknown
MR
4.89
26.2
8.8
—
0/1/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
8
8 MIN · 0 LAA
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
MIN
8 R
13H · 1HR · 2BB · 9K · 15LOB
OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.436 · K% 21.4
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 0 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 2 arms
LAA
0 R
2H · 0HR · 3BB · 11K · 11LOB
OBPe 0.188 · SLGe 0.071 · K% 34.4
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 7 ER · 9 K · relief 4.3 IP · 3 arms
MIN · standout lines
big nights
Brooks Lee (3B) · 3-4 | 3 R3 H
Josh Bell (DH) · 3-4 | BB, K, 2 RBI3 H
Alan Roden (RF) · 3-5 | HR, K, 4 RBIHR · 3 H · 4 RBI