Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 823896past slate · free
refreshed 120h 25m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Dodger Stadium
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
77°F
humidity 62%
wind
4 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
overcast
park
LAD
open · HP→CF 28°
wind impact on total
+0.10 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.10 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_
opener / bulk pattern
LAD: Jack Dreyer opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF
Jack DreyerLHP · LAD
xERA 2026
4.27
3.45
xwOBA 2026
0.318
0.288
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.011
-0.011
xERA 2025
—
2.69
xwOBA 2025
—
0.257
Outs/TB 25-26
1.74
2.55
FIP 25-26
5.13
3.13
kwERA 25-26
4.21
3.30
K% 25-26
14.8%
25.9%
BB% 25-26
4.9%
8.4%
IP 25+26 combined
19.7
135.7
ERA actual 2026
4.58
3.19
ERA (L4)
6.14
6.75
WHIP (L4)
1.36
2.00
K% (L4)
12.5%
10.0%
BB% (L4)
6.2%
10.0%
IP/gm (L4)
3.67
1.00
L4 window
08/19→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/04→09/16 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
87 (+2)
96 (−7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.72 (+0.18)
5.85 (+2.22)
Arsenal RV/100
0.81
0.92
away arsenal — SF
RV/100 0.81
4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.287
Changeup—+0.10xwOBA 0.237
Slider—+0.30xwOBA 0.404
home arsenal · BULK Jack Dreyer — LAD
RV/100 0.92
4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.303
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.284
Curveball—+2.00xwOBA 0.232
away · SF vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.380
Σ match
2.335
Σ FRV
-12.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Jonah Cox
0.265
0.250
+1.8
2
RF
Jung Hoo Lee
0.314
0.271
-6.9
3
DH
Victor Bericoto
0.303
0.288
-2.4
4
C
Andrew Knizner
0.295
0.273
-5.2
5
1B
Brett Harris
0.236
0.255
+0.8
6
LF
Scott Bandura
0.153
0.249
-1.2
7
3B
Shay Whitcomb
0.255
0.240
+1.2
8
CF
Grant McCray
0.307
0.280
-2.1
9
SS
Christian Koss
0.252
0.228
+1.7
home · LAD vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.040
Σ match
2.856
Σ FRV
+5.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Mookie Betts
0.342
0.309
+6.1
2
CF
Tommy Edman
0.303
0.267
+1.8
3
RF
Teoscar Hernández
0.334
0.335
-6.1
4
1B
Freddie Freeman
0.366
0.330
+1.7
5
2B
Miguel Rojas
0.310
0.288
+1.6
6
3B
Max Muncy
0.350
0.361
+1.1
7
DH
Josue De Paula
0.442
0.396
+0.0
8
LF
Enrique Hernández
0.274
0.252
-0.8
9
C
Hunter Feduccia
0.319
0.319
-0.3
defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)
Andrew Knizner
FRV-5.2
framing-2.5
blocking-1.2
throwing-1.5
defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)
Hunter Feduccia
FRV-0.3
framing+3.3
blocking-1.2
throwing-2.3
SF · Matt Wilkinson
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs San Diego Padres · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
85
85(-0)
87
Location+
115
114(-1)
101
Pitching+
103
105(+1)
89
botStf
46
47(+1)
46
botCmd
57
49(-7)
51
botOvr
54
47(-7)
49
SIERA
5.53
4.53(-1.01)
5.72
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.25
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
LAD · Jack Dreyer
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs Cincinnati Reds · 1.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
93(-10)
96
Location+
105
78(-28)
85
Pitching+
109
77(-32)
85
botStf
57
58(+1)
58
botCmd
54
27(-27)
42
botOvr
57
34(-23)
47
SIERA
3.62
10.51(+6.88)
5.85
Last 3 outings: 2026-09-07 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 7.44
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.