Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 823570past slate · free
refreshed 123h 51m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citi Field
gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
67°F
humidity 86%
wind
10 mph
out to LF
precip
64%
light drizzle
park
NYM
open · HP→CF 21°
wind impact on total
+0.22 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.22 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI
Jonah TongRHP · NYM
xERA 2026
3.40
3.11
xwOBA 2026
0.286
0.274
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.014
0.000
xERA 2025
3.02
4.96
xwOBA 2025
0.272
0.342
Outs/TB 25-26
2.30
2.03
FIP 25-26
2.66
4.07
kwERA 25-26
2.88
3.79
K% 25-26
26.5%
23.5%
BB% 25-26
5.5%
10.1%
IP 25+26 combined
395.7
39.7
ERA actual 2026
2.93
3.43
ERA (L4)
4.97
4.00
WHIP (L4)
1.22
1.33
K% (L4)
20.2%
22.0%
BB% (L4)
5.8%
9.8%
IP/gm (L4)
6.33
4.50
L4 window
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
05/27→09/14 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
117 (+1)
96 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.30 (+1.30)
3.41 (−1.41)
Arsenal RV/100
0.51
0.73
away arsenal — PHI
RV/100 0.51
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.370
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.199
Slider—+1.00xwOBA 0.260
home arsenal — NYM
RV/100 0.73
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.327
Changeup—+3.60xwOBA 0.132
Cutter—-2.30xwOBA 0.412
away · PHI vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.908
Σ match
2.800
Σ FRV
-19.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.363
0.345
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.295
0.291
-9.4
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.382
0.397
-12.0
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.307
0.299
+10.5
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.329
0.299
-6.1
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.327
0.315
+6.4
7
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.300
0.293
-5.5
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.319
0.294
+0.0
9
CF
Justin Crawford
0.286
0.267
-2.3
home · NYM vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.966
Σ match
2.761
Σ FRV
-1.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.334
0.328
+0.8
2
LF
Juan Soto
0.413
0.372
-5.2
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.326
0.282
-1.6
4
1B
Mark Vientos
0.313
0.287
-7.0
5
RF
Carson Benge
0.340
0.324
+7.2
6
2B
Marcus Semien
0.303
0.301
-8.5
7
DH
Francisco Alvarez
0.321
0.307
+1.3
8
CF
Nick Morabito
0.322
0.306
+1.3
9
C
Luis Torrens
0.294
0.254
+9.7
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+0.0
framing-0.7
blocking-1.3
throwing+2.1
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Luis Torrens
FRV+9.7
framing+5.9
blocking+1.6
throwing+2.2
PHI · Cristopher Sánchez
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs WSH · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
116
117(+1)
117
Location+
97
83(-14)
89
Pitching+
114
101(-13)
107
botStf
57
57(+0)
59
botCmd
55
50(-5)
54
botOvr
58
50(-8)
53
SIERA
2.99
4.50(+1.51)
4.30
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.76
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYM · Jonah Tong
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs BAL · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
101(+5)
96
Location+
92
102(+9)
98
Pitching+
90
103(+12)
96
botStf
52
54(+2)
52
botCmd
49
50(+1)
52
botOvr
49
51(+2)
50
SIERA
4.82
3.29(-1.53)
3.41
Last 3 outings: 2026-06-02 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.64
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.37R / inningband [0.30–0.44]
0.087 R/PA · 0.124 R/out · worst: Max Lazar (4.71)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.