PHI @ NYM

Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 823570past slate · free
refreshed 123h 51m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citi Field

gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
67°F
humidity 86%
wind
10 mph
out to LF
precip
64%
light drizzle
park
NYM
open · HP→CF 21°
CFHP1B3BOUT
wind impact on total
+0.22 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.22 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricCristopher SánchezLHP · PHIJonah TongRHP · NYM
xERA 20263.403.11
xwOBA 20260.2860.274
wOBA−xwOBA 20260.0140.000
xERA 20253.024.96
xwOBA 20250.2720.342
Outs/TB 25-262.302.03
FIP 25-262.664.07
kwERA 25-262.883.79
K% 25-2626.5%23.5%
BB% 25-265.5%10.1%
IP 25+26 combined395.739.7
ERA actual 20262.933.43
ERA (L4)4.974.00
WHIP (L4)1.221.33
K% (L4)20.2%22.0%
BB% (L4)5.8%9.8%
IP/gm (L4)6.334.50
L4 window08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified05/27→09/14 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)117 (+1)96 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)4.30 (+1.30)3.41 (−1.41)
Arsenal RV/1000.510.73

away arsenal — PHI

RV/100 0.51
  • Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.370
  • Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.199
  • Slider—+1.00xwOBA 0.260

home arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.73
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.327
  • Changeup—+3.60xwOBA 0.132
  • Cutter—-2.30xwOBA 0.412

away · PHI vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.908
Σ match
2.800
Σ FRV
-19.1
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1DHKyle Schwarber0.3630.345-0.6
2SSTrea Turner0.2950.291-9.4
3RFBryce Harper0.3820.397-12.0
42BLuis Arraez0.3070.299+10.5
51BAlec Bohm0.3290.299-6.1
63BBryson Stott0.3270.315+6.4
7LFBrandon Marsh0.3000.293-5.5
8CJ.T. Realmuto0.3190.294+0.0
9CFJustin Crawford0.2860.267-2.3

home · NYM vs LHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.966
Σ match
2.761
Σ FRV
-1.8
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1SSFrancisco Lindor0.3340.328+0.8
2LFJuan Soto0.4130.372-5.2
33BBo Bichette0.3260.282-1.6
41BMark Vientos0.3130.287-7.0
5RFCarson Benge0.3400.324+7.2
62BMarcus Semien0.3030.301-8.5
7DHFrancisco Alvarez0.3210.307+1.3
8CFNick Morabito0.3220.306+1.3
9CLuis Torrens0.2940.254+9.7

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto
  • FRV+0.0
  • framing-0.7
  • blocking-1.3
  • throwing+2.1

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Torrens
  • FRV+9.7
  • framing+5.9
  • blocking+1.6
  • throwing+2.2

PHI · Cristopher Sánchez

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs WSH · 6.1 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+116117(+1)117
Location+9783(-14)89
Pitching+114101(-13)107
botStf5757(+0)59
botCmd5550(-5)54
botOvr5850(-8)53
SIERA2.994.50(+1.51)4.30

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.76

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYM · Jonah Tong

Last outing 2026-09-14 vs BAL · 6.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+96101(+5)96
Location+92102(+9)98
Pitching+90103(+12)96
botStf5254(+2)52
botCmd4950(+1)52
botOvr4951(+2)50
SIERA4.823.29(-1.53)3.41

Last 3 outings: 2026-06-02 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.64

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.37R / inningband [0.30–0.44]
0.087 R/PA · 0.124 R/out · worst: Max Lazar (4.71)
NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Tobias Myers (4.18)

PHI

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Jhoan DuranCLOSERCL1.4435.14.00.9432/0/35stable
Jonathan BowlanSETUPSU3.3631.96.60.932/14/2stable
José AlvaradoSETUPSU3.6626.610.40.851/16/3stable
Brooks RaleySETUPMR3.9623.29.10.891/16/5stable
Tim MayzaOPENERMR3.1824.26.51.150/2/9stable
Chase ShugartMRMR4.8626.49.11.130/0/10stable
Tanner BanksMRMR5.4921.38.51.040/2/6stable
Max LazarMRMR7.8414.38.61.330/0/1stable
Alex McFarlaneunknownMR3.2322.08.5—0/4/0—

NYM

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Kodai SengaBULKCL5.7426.713.93.397/0/1ramping down
Austin WarrenOPENERMR4.1126.210.91.350/2/9stable
Cionel PérezOPENERMR4.4622.79.21.160/6/6ramping up
Tobias MyersOPENERMR4.7417.37.11.772/3/5stable
Jonathan PintaroMRMR5.0423.611.82.470/3/2ramping up
Jack WeisenburgerunknownLR1.8326.27.1—0/0/0—
Nate LavenderunknownSU1.9732.95.7—0/10/0—
Jefry YanunknownMR4.0329.914.3—0/1/0—
Dedniel NúñezunknownSU4.3922.70.0—1/4/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
9
7 PHI · 2 NYM
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

PHI

7 R

7H · 0HR · 9BB · 8K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.313 · K% 19.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 2.7 IP · 4 arms

NYM

2 R

10H · 1HR · 0BB · 8K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.270 · SLGe 0.378 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 8 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

PHI · standout lines

tough nights
  • Bryson Stott (3B) · 0-4 | BB, R0-for-4

NYM · standout lines

big nights
  • Bo Bichette (3B) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
tough nights
  • Francisco Lindor (SS) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
  • Marcus Semien (2B) · 0-40-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks