Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 823329past slate · free
refreshed 123h 49m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
75°F
humidity 83%
wind
10 mph
out to LF
precip
26%
overcast
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
+0.17 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.17 R/G vs neutral. _PNC's riverside location + grandstand pattern creates swirl in RF; calm most days_
opener / bulk pattern
PIT: Lake Bachar opens → bulk: Carmen Mlodzinski· predicted bulk based on 2/44 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Michael WachaRHP · KC
Lake BacharRHP · opener · PIT
Carmen MlodzinskiRHP · bulk · PIT
xERA 2026
3.90
3.50
4.93
xwOBA 2026
0.305
0.290
0.339
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.005
-0.005
-0.030
xERA 2025
4.16
4.48
4.07
xwOBA 2025
0.316
0.327
0.313
Outs/TB 25-26
2.02
2.26
2.01
FIP 25-26
3.97
4.39
3.51
kwERA 25-26
3.93
3.59
3.95
K% 25-26
18.6%
25.4%
19.3%
BB% 25-26
6.4%
10.2%
7.3%
IP 25+26 combined
361.3
153.3
216.7
ERA actual 2026
3.34
3.50
3.90
ERA (L4)
2.42
2.16
9.45
WHIP (L4)
0.92
1.32
2.48
K% (L4)
22.5%
25.0%
9.9%
BB% (L4)
6.9%
13.9%
11.3%
IP/gm (L4)
6.50
2.08
3.33
L4 window
08/28→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
05/25→08/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (+2)
92 (−5)
91 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.37 (+0.90)
5.12 (+0.60)
5.93 (+1.29)
Arsenal RV/100
0.40
0.80
0.07
away arsenal — KC
RV/100 0.40
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.327
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.220
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.349
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.374
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.311
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.301
home arsenal · BULK Carmen Mlodzinski — PIT
RV/100 0.07
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.373
Split-Finger—+1.40xwOBA 0.273
Sinker—-0.70xwOBA 0.407
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.324
Sweeper—+1.20xwOBA 0.264
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.412
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.333
away · KC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.776
Σ match
3.011
Σ FRV
+11.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
Maikel Garcia
0.312
0.339
+5.2
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.377
0.395
+15.3
3
DH
Jac Caglianone
0.355
0.372
-7.7
4
1B
Salvador Perez
0.309
0.349
-9.7
5
2B
Michael Massey
0.307
0.324
+7.6
6
RF
Nick Loftin
0.293
0.316
-1.8
7
LF
John Rave
0.315
0.338
+1.4
8
C
Luke Maile
0.213
0.256
+2.5
9
CF
Tyler Tolbert
0.295
0.321
-1.1
home · PIT vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.927
Σ match
2.913
Σ FRV
-9.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.306
0.300
-3.7
2
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.329
0.347
+11.6
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.353
0.354
-4.5
4
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.352
0.354
+1.8
5
3B
Nick Gonzales
0.326
0.321
-9.4
6
DH
Ryan O'Hearn
0.316
0.314
-3.0
7
C
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.344
0.336
-0.5
8
1B
Spencer Horwitz
0.312
0.306
-3.9
9
RF
Jake Mangum
0.289
0.280
+2.3
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Luke Maile
FRV+2.5
framing+2.4
blocking+0.4
throwing-0.3
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Rafael Flores Jr.
FRV-0.5
framing+0.7
blocking-0.8
throwing-0.4
KC · Michael Wacha
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs HOU · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
101(+3)
100
Location+
102
104(+3)
96
Pitching+
100
101(+1)
95
botStf
48
46(-2)
48
botCmd
57
54(-3)
54
botOvr
53
51(-2)
51
SIERA
4.47
5.79(+1.32)
5.37
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.56
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs MIL · 2.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
87(-4)
91
Location+
105
82(-23)
107
Pitching+
96
72(-24)
98
botStf
46
46(-1)
47
botCmd
55
44(-11)
56
botOvr
51
42(-9)
52
SIERA
4.65
6.80(+2.15)
5.93
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.16
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.50R / inningband [0.45–0.54]
0.117 R/PA · 0.165 R/out · worst: Lucas Erceg (5.23)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.