Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 823247past slate · free
refreshed 121h 23m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Petco Park
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
79°F
humidity 58%
wind
8 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
SD
open · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
+0.03 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Sandy AlcantaraRHP · MIA
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD
xERA 2026
3.90
4.27
xwOBA 2026
0.305
0.318
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.000
0.014
xERA 2025
4.64
5.41
xwOBA 2025
0.332
0.355
Outs/TB 25-26
1.99
1.82
FIP 25-26
4.17
5.02
kwERA 25-26
4.09
4.38
K% 25-26
18.1%
18.3%
BB% 25-26
7.2%
9.8%
IP 25+26 combined
380.7
269.3
ERA actual 2026
3.84
4.58
ERA (L4)
8.02
4.24
WHIP (L4)
1.69
1.47
K% (L4)
11.9%
19.7%
BB% (L4)
7.9%
7.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.33
4.25
L4 window
08/29→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (−4)
94 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.99 (+1.34)
4.57 (+0.05)
Arsenal RV/100
0.45
-0.08
away arsenal — MIA
RV/100 0.45
Sinker—+1.50xwOBA 0.303
Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.282
4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.395
Cutter—+2.20xwOBA 0.291
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.278
Slider—+1.20xwOBA 0.199
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.303
home arsenal — SD
RV/100 -0.08
Cutter—+0.60xwOBA 0.307
Sinker—+2.00xwOBA 0.287
4-Seam Fastball—-0.50xwOBA 0.387
Slider—+2.10xwOBA 0.243
Changeup—-5.20xwOBA 0.401
Curveball—-2.30xwOBA 0.347
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.262
away · MIA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.673
Σ match
2.858
Σ FRV
+24.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Stowers
0.323
0.333
-3.6
2
SS
Otto Lopez
0.328
0.339
+10.4
3
RF
Griffin Conine
0.364
0.387
-1.4
4
LF
Heriberto Hernández
0.349
0.352
+0.6
5
CF
Jakob Marsee
0.314
0.328
+4.9
6
2B
Javier Sanoja
0.291
0.299
+2.6
7
3B
Graham Pauley
0.249
0.259
+1.5
8
C
Joe Mack
0.285
0.302
+9.9
9
1B
Deyvison De Los Santos
0.170
0.259
-0.6
home · SD vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.789
Σ match
2.822
Σ FRV
+32.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Fernando Tatis Jr.
0.378
0.366
+4.5
2
RF
Dustin Harris
0.320
0.313
+0.4
3
DH
Manny Machado
0.332
0.331
+7.4
4
1B
Ty France
0.335
0.334
+10.3
5
CF
Jackson Merrill
0.350
0.346
+10.6
6
SS
Xander Bogaerts
0.323
0.316
+4.3
7
3B
Jake Cronenworth
0.273
0.261
-2.0
8
LF
Samad Taylor
0.320
0.318
-1.6
9
C
Ethan Salas
0.158
0.236
-1.0
defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)
Joe Mack
FRV+9.9
framing+4.9
blocking+0.1
throwing+4.8
defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)
Ethan Salas
FRV-1.0
framing-0.9
blocking+0.0
throwing-0.1
MIA · Sandy Alcantara
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs AZ · 1.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
105(+6)
96
Location+
103
61(-42)
106
Pitching+
103
75(-28)
102
botStf
53
59(+6)
53
botCmd
56
43(-13)
54
botOvr
57
44(-12)
54
SIERA
4.65
14.37(+9.72)
5.99
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.74
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
SD · Walker Buehler
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs COL · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
95
91(-4)
94
Location+
100
104(+4)
98
Pitching+
97
90(-7)
90
botStf
48
47(-1)
46
botCmd
53
56(+3)
53
botOvr
51
53(+2)
50
SIERA
4.52
5.98(+1.47)
4.57
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.27
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
10
3 MIA · 7 SD
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
MIA
3 R
4H · 1HR · 3BB · 6K · 7LOB
OBPe 0.219 · SLGe 0.241 · K% 18.8
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 7 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 2 arms
SD
7 R
10H · 3HR · 2BB · 6K · 8LOB
OBPe 0.343 · SLGe 0.636 · K% 17.1
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms
MIA · standout lines
big nights
Javier Sanoja (3B) · 1-3 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR
tough nights
Otto Lopez (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4
SD · standout lines
big nights
Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Jake Cronenworth (2B) · 3-4 | 2 HR, 2B, K2-HR night · 3 H · 10 TB · 5 RBI