Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 823001past slate · free
refreshed 123h 17m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Busch Stadium
gametime 2:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
89°F
humidity 47%
wind
3 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
3%
partly cloudy
park
STL
open · HP→CF 4°
wind impact on total
+0.03 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jake IrvinRHP · WSH
Quinn MathewsLHP · STL
xERA 2026
5.37
3.45
xwOBA 2026
0.352
0.288
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.013
0.020
xERA 2025
5.59
—
xwOBA 2025
0.360
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.64
2.20
FIP 25-26
5.45
3.57
kwERA 25-26
4.29
3.92
K% 25-26
18.1%
22.2%
BB% 25-26
8.9%
9.9%
IP 25+26 combined
276.3
37.3
ERA actual 2026
5.51
3.62
ERA (L4)
4.50
1.93
WHIP (L4)
1.65
1.16
K% (L4)
19.4%
24.0%
BB% (L4)
11.8%
9.4%
IP/gm (L4)
5.00
5.83
L4 window
08/22→09/07 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
99 (+0)
97 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.09 (+0.50)
4.65 (−0.06)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.58
-0.25
away arsenal — WSH
RV/100 -0.58
4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.386
Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.246
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.472
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.375
Sweeper—-2.70xwOBA 0.320
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.225
home arsenal — STL
RV/100 -0.25
4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.324
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.283
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.274
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.222
away · WSH vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.932
Σ match
2.777
Σ FRV
-5.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
James Wood
0.411
0.393
-7.8
2
1B
Andrés Chaparro
0.346
0.349
-3.4
3
3B
Brady House
0.336
0.299
-2.3
4
2B
CJ Abrams
0.328
0.310
-12.3
5
RF
Dylan Crews
0.315
0.293
+2.7
6
LF
Daylen Lile
0.326
0.285
+2.2
7
C
Harry Ford
0.287
0.288
-1.7
8
CF
Jacob Young
0.316
0.313
+8.6
9
SS
Nasim Nuñez
0.267
0.247
+8.7
home · STL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.947
Σ match
3.311
Σ FRV
+16.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
JJ Wetherholt
0.350
0.399
+22.1
2
DH
Iván Herrera
0.332
0.363
-4.5
3
1B
Alec Burleson
0.375
0.441
+6.0
4
RF
Jordan Walker
0.342
0.395
-8.5
5
C
Leo Bernal
0.359
0.364
+1.1
6
SS
Thomas Saggese
0.313
0.347
+0.3
7
LF
Bryan Torres
0.293
0.342
+1.2
8
3B
José Fermín
0.293
0.331
-2.3
9
CF
Nathan Church
0.290
0.329
+1.2
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Harry Ford
FRV-1.7
framing-0.5
blocking-0.8
throwing-0.4
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Leo Bernal
FRV+1.1
framing+0.8
blocking+0.4
throwing+0.7
WSH · Jake Irvin
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs Los Angeles Angels · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
95(-3)
99
Location+
99
76(-23)
98
Pitching+
96
74(-22)
96
botStf
49
46(-3)
46
botCmd
55
47(-7)
57
botOvr
53
45(-8)
53
SIERA
4.59
4.67(+0.08)
5.09
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.57
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
STL · Quinn Mathews
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs SF · 6.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
101(+4)
97
Location+
102
96(-6)
98
Pitching+
98
101(+2)
98
botStf
49
52(+3)
50
botCmd
52
50(-2)
51
botOvr
51
49(-2)
50
SIERA
4.71
2.96(-1.76)
4.65
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.92
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.34–0.58]
0.109 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Jared Simpson (7.20)
STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.39–0.52]
0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.48)
WSH
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Brad Lord
SETUP
MR
4.33
21.4
9.0
2.15
1/7/4
stable
Richard Lovelady
OPENER
MR
5.05
18.9
13.2
0.92
4/10/11
ramping down
Will Dion
MR
MR
3.96
27.8
8.0
1.79
1/0/6
ramping down
Riley Cornelio
MR
LR
4.12
23.9
17.6
2.04
0/0/2
ramping down
Yovanny Cruz
MR
SU
4.52
21.1
14.0
1.44
0/2/1
insufficient data
Erik Tolman
unknown
CL
2.32
24.0
10.0
—
3/1/0
—
Josiah Gray
unknown
MR
3.09
0.0
0.0
—
0/0/0
—
Jack Sinclair
unknown
MR
4.14
15.6
12.5
—
1/1/0
—
Jared Simpson
unknown
MR
6.09
20.0
35.0
—
0/0/0
—
Luis Perales
unknown
MR
8.65
23.4
23.4
—
0/0/0
—
STL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Riley O'Brien
CLOSER
CL
3.95
23.4
10.6
0.99
37/1/33
stable
Justin Bruihl
SETUP
MR
3.89
15.9
8.1
1.11
0/11/5
ramping up
Ryne Stanek
SETUP
SU
4.49
24.7
11.6
0.89
2/26/5
stable
George Soriano
SETUP
MR
4.83
22.4
11.9
0.98
4/21/7
stable
Brycen Mautz
BULK
MR
5.25
25.8
15.2
3.00
0/0/1
insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo
MR
SU
3.87
18.8
11.1
1.18
1/7/10
stable
Luis Gastelum
MR
MR
4.20
28.6
7.9
1.00
0/1/1
stable
Cade Winquest
unknown
MR
3.58
29.5
11.4
—
0/1/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.