Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 822922past slate · free
refreshed 123h 52m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
85°F
humidity 62%
wind
2 mph
out to LF
precip
7%
overcast
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
+0.03 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Patrick SandovalLHP · BOS
Griffin JaxRHP · TB
xERA 2026
5.30
4.39
xwOBA 2026
0.350
0.322
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.022
-0.019
xERA 2025
—
3.26
xwOBA 2025
—
0.282
Outs/TB 25-26
1.63
2.04
FIP 25-26
3.85
3.33
kwERA 25-26
3.92
2.80
K% 25-26
23.2%
29.2%
BB% 25-26
10.9%
7.6%
IP 25+26 combined
57.7
170.3
ERA actual 2026
4.99
3.80
ERA (L4)
6.00
2.55
WHIP (L4)
1.83
1.02
K% (L4)
25.3%
25.0%
BB% (L4)
13.3%
4.2%
IP/gm (L4)
4.50
4.42
L4 window
08/28→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/02→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
99 (−3)
103 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.69 (+0.17)
4.68 (+0.23)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.15
0.31
away arsenal — BOS
RV/100 -1.15
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.201
4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.415
Slider—-1.70xwOBA 0.330
Sinker—-3.10xwOBA 0.520
Sweeper—-7.70xwOBA 0.308
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 0.31
Sweeper—+0.50xwOBA 0.323
Changeup—+0.70xwOBA 0.270
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.335
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.343
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.248
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.661
away · BOS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.778
Σ match
2.834
Σ FRV
+28.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Roman Anthony
0.350
0.351
-0.2
2
DH
Mickey Gasper
0.360
0.363
-1.9
3
C
Adley Rutschman
0.328
0.327
+11.6
4
SS
Trevor Story
0.253
0.259
-0.8
5
1B
Nick Sogard
0.312
0.322
+2.7
6
3B
Caleb Durbin
0.293
0.290
+5.1
7
CF
Jarren Duran
0.298
0.321
+4.4
8
2B
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
0.301
0.298
+4.7
9
RF
Nate Eaton
0.283
0.303
+2.4
home · TB vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.718
Σ match
3.063
Σ FRV
+5.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.347
0.400
—
2
1B
Ryan Vilade
0.334
0.383
-3.0
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.364
0.420
-7.8
4
CF
Jonny DeLuca
0.260
0.286
+10.2
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.266
0.293
+4.0
6
2B
Ben Williamson
0.290
0.320
-3.3
7
C
Nick Fortes
0.278
0.305
-0.8
8
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.328
0.370
+8.9
9
SS
Taylor Walls
0.251
0.286
-2.5
defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)
Adley Rutschman
FRV+11.6
framing+6.6
blocking+0.9
throwing+4.1
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Nick Fortes
FRV-0.8
framing-1.1
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.1
BOS · Patrick Sandoval
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs TEX · 2.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
104(+3)
99
Location+
99
103(+4)
101
Pitching+
104
98(-6)
102
botStf
50
47(-3)
50
botCmd
54
58(+4)
53
botOvr
52
55(+4)
51
SIERA
4.52
4.07(-0.46)
4.69
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.83
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Griffin Jax
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs ATH · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
112(+6)
103
Location+
100
121(+21)
112
Pitching+
109
127(+18)
115
botStf
61
58(-3)
56
botCmd
54
58(+4)
57
botOvr
58
61(+2)
59
SIERA
4.44
1.47(-2.97)
4.68
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.87
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.