Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 822844past slate · free
refreshed 121h 54m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Globe Life Field
gametime 2:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
96°F
humidity 40%
wind
5 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
overcast
park
TEX
retractable · HP→CF 7°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Spencer MilesRHP · TOR
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX
xERA 2026
2.97
3.35
xwOBA 2026
0.268
0.284
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.012
-0.008
xERA 2025
—
3.36
xwOBA 2025
—
0.286
Outs/TB 25-26
2.70
2.28
FIP 25-26
2.72
3.36
kwERA 25-26
3.36
2.59
K% 25-26
23.5%
29.3%
BB% 25-26
6.5%
5.9%
IP 25+26 combined
91.7
327.0
ERA actual 2026
2.65
3.79
ERA (L4)
2.00
1.50
WHIP (L4)
1.44
0.46
K% (L4)
17.9%
42.7%
BB% (L4)
5.1%
2.4%
IP/gm (L4)
2.25
6.00
L4 window
07/07→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/31→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
94 (−6)
110 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.15 (+0.78)
1.63 (−1.68)
Arsenal RV/100
1.51
0.77
away arsenal — TOR
RV/100 1.51
Sinker—+2.90xwOBA 0.294
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.268
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.233
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.211
home arsenal — TEX
RV/100 0.77
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.343
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.232
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.239
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.292
Sinker—-2.90xwOBA 0.355
away · TOR vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.615
Σ match
2.478
Σ FRV
+34.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Brett Bateman
0.300
0.286
+3.0
2
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.335
0.304
+5.9
3
RF
Nathan Lukes
0.286
0.276
+8.1
4
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.329
0.316
-4.0
5
DH
Sean Keys
0.240
0.257
+0.0
6
LF
Josh Smith
0.282
0.267
-2.4
7
SS
Andrés Giménez
0.273
0.240
+15.9
8
C
Brandon Valenzuela
0.310
0.296
+11.7
9
2B
Ernie Clement
0.260
0.237
-3.8
home · TEX vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.749
Σ match
2.421
Σ FRV
+14.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Wyatt Langford
0.325
0.300
+3.4
2
DH
Corey Seager
0.354
0.289
-0.8
3
3B
Josh Jung
0.349
0.293
-4.6
4
SS
Ezequiel Duran
0.303
0.266
+13.7
5
RF
Alejandro Osuna
0.298
0.253
-8.5
6
1B
Jake Burger
0.318
0.292
+4.2
7
2B
Nicky Lopez
0.264
0.241
+1.7
8
C
Danny Jansen
0.265
0.241
-3.3
9
CF
Evan Carter
0.273
0.245
+8.7
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Brandon Valenzuela
FRV+11.7
framing+7.3
blocking-0.6
throwing+5.1
defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)
Danny Jansen
FRV-3.3
framing-4.4
blocking+1.9
throwing-0.8
TOR · Spencer Miles
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs Detroit Tigers · 2.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
96(-4)
94
Location+
109
106(-3)
118
Pitching+
107
105(-2)
113
botStf
52
51(-2)
51
botCmd
58
54(-4)
60
botOvr
56
51(-5)
58
SIERA
3.36
5.43(+2.07)
4.15
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.62
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TEX · Jacob deGrom
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs BOS · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
109
104(-5)
110
Location+
108
115(+7)
117
Pitching+
118
122(+4)
126
botStf
57
55(-3)
57
botCmd
59
56(-3)
62
botOvr
61
58(-4)
64
SIERA
3.31
2.35(-0.96)
1.63
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.44
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.73)
TOR
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Louis Varland
CLOSER
CL
1.80
31.7
7.3
1.11
34/5/31
stable
Paul Sewald
CLOSER
MR
5.33
25.1
6.2
0.91
24/2/33
stable
Tyler Rogers
SETUP
SU
3.19
13.8
7.8
0.97
4/32/6
stable
Mason Fluharty
OPENER
MR
3.58
25.7
10.3
0.76
1/17/5
stable
Braydon Fisher
OPENER
MR
4.34
23.9
13.8
1.05
1/13/7
stable
Spencer Miles
SWING
SU
2.72
23.5
6.5
2.37
2/4/6
ramping up
Joe Mantiply
MR
MR
3.57
19.8
4.5
1.04
0/1/4
ramping down
Brendon Little
MOP_UP
MR
5.10
33.9
19.4
0.95
0/3/2
ramping up
José Rodríguez
unknown
MR
0.69
33.3
0.0
—
0/0/0
—
Brendan Cellucci
unknown
MR
2.09
35.7
14.3
—
0/0/0
—
Spencer Arrighetti
SP
LR
5.34
21.6
12.9
5.44
0/0/0
ramping down
TEX
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jacob Latz
CLOSER
CL
2.73
29.9
8.4
1.28
30/3/26
stable
Jakob Junis
SETUP
MR
3.77
16.8
6.4
1.12
6/18/9
stable
Chase Silseth
SETUP
SU
3.80
26.7
13.2
0.85
0/17/7
stable
Tyler Alexander
OPENER
MR
3.02
20.0
6.9
0.95
4/13/11
stable
Robert Garcia
MR
SU
4.22
20.4
14.8
0.89
0/4/1
stable
Adam Macko
MR
MR
5.05
22.2
9.6
1.04
0/5/2
stable
Trevor Williams
unknown
LR
3.55
27.3
8.2
—
0/1/0
—
Jordan Montgomery
unknown
MR
4.34
17.2
5.7
—
0/0/0
—
Nathan Eovaldi
SP
LR
4.20
24.0
5.4
6.07
0/1/0
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
9
7 TOR · 2 TEX
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
TOR
7 R
11H · 0HR · 6BB · 5K · 22LOB
OBPe 0.419 · SLGe 0.429 · K% 11.6
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 6.0 IP · 7 arms
TEX
2 R
8H · 1HR · 4BB · 7K · 17LOB
OBPe 0.316 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 18.4
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 7 ER · 5 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms
TEX · standout lines
big nights
Jake Burger (1B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
Evan Carter (CF) · 3-43 H
tough nights
Corey Seager (DH) · 0-50-for-5
Josh Jung (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Ezequiel Duran (SS) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K