Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYY @ AZ

Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 825029past slate · free

refreshed 142h 26m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Chase Field

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

100°F

humidity 17%

wind

1 mph

in from LF

precip

clear

park

retractable · HP→CF 23°

wind impact on total

neutralnone calm

Calm air — wind not a factor.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cam SchlittlerRHP · NYY	Brandon PfaadtRHP · AZ
xERA 2026	2.86	3.85
xwOBA 2026	0.263	0.303
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.020	-0.003
xERA 2025	4.10	5.30
xwOBA 2025	0.314	0.352
Outs/TB 25-26	2.66	1.76
FIP 25-26	2.89	4.14
kwERA 25-26	2.62	3.86
K% 25-26	30.5%	18.0%
BB% 25-26	7.3%	5.2%
IP 25+26 combined	257.7	300.7
ERA actual 2026	1.95	3.77
ERA (L4)	0.67	5.26
WHIP (L4)	0.56	1.29
K% (L4)	36.8%	13.6%
BB% (L4)	7.4%	4.5%
IP/gm (L4)	6.67	6.42
L4 window	08/28→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	1.34	0.65

away arsenal — NYY

RV/100 1.34

4-Seam Fastball—+2.10xwOBA 0.230
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.301
Sinker—+1.90xwOBA 0.266
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.325

home arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.65

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.313
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.334
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.329
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.309
Sweeper—+1.20xwOBA 0.209
Cutter—+2.20xwOBA 0.306

away · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.843

Σ match

2.781

Σ FRV

+11.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ben Rice	0.378	0.378	-4.7
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.341	0.320	+9.5
3	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.348	0.353	+1.5
4	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.328	0.314	-6.8
5	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.289	0.282	-1.5
6	C	Austin Wells	0.289	0.289	+7.1
7	2B	Anthony Volpe	0.296	0.285	+5.2
8	3B	Ryan McMahon	0.294	0.289	+1.2
9	CF	José Caballero	0.280	0.271	+0.4

home · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.968

Σ match

2.573

Σ FRV

+25.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.343	0.302	+1.8
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.345	0.303	+4.7
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.362	0.319	+7.8
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.329	0.279	+11.8
5	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.344	0.288	+4.8
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.293	0.273	+2.2
7	1B	Tim Tawa	0.312	0.266	+0.3
8	DH	Jesús Sánchez	0.320	0.275	-8.9
9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.320	0.268	+0.7

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+7.1
framing+6.4
blocking+2.2
throwing-1.5

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.8
framing+5.2
blocking+1.0
throwing+1.7

NYY · Cam Schlittler

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs NYM · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 113 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 56 · botCmd 44 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 1.55

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 120 · Location+ 107 · Pitching+ 124 · botStf 57 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 60 · SIERA 1.68

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Brandon Pfaadt

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs TEX · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 111 · botStf 55 · botCmd 51 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 5.26

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 92 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 114 · botStf 50 · botCmd 62 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 5.64

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.26–0.65]

0.108 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.18)

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.50]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Zac Gallen (4.66)

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.55	27.6	6.7	1.10	34/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.24	30.2	7.7	1.01	0/29/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.73	17.0	11.3	0.91	2/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	6.04	10.8	5.6	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.80	20.6	10.0	1.53	1/11/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.61	17.1	8.8	1.59	3/2/14	stable
Clarke Schmidt	unknown	MR	-2.91	50.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	3.80	27.1	12.5	—	0/2/0	—
Luis Gil	SP	MR	7.20	14.4	12.6	4.83	0/0/0	ramping up

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.31	31.6	5.7	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.71	28.5	8.9	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.78	19.4	4.5	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.25	25.7	6.2	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.70	15.9	5.2	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	4.94	20.7	9.9	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	2.57	32.5	15.0	—	0/1/0	—
Zac Gallen	SP	LR	5.35	13.6	7.5	5.16	0/0/0	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 NYY · 5 AZ

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYY

3 R

6H · 2HR · 3BB · 6K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.387 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

8.3 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms

AZ

5 R

7H · 1HR · 4BB · 10K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.387 · K% 27.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Heliot Ramos (RF) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Austin Wells (C) · 2-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Cody Bellinger (LF) · 0-40-for-4
Luis García Jr. (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
George Lombard Jr. (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Pavin Smith (PH) · 1-1 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Tim Tawa (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K