Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 824788past slate · free
refreshed 145h 35m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
gametime 4:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
80°F
humidity 49%
wind
6 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
1%
mostly clear
park
BAL
open · HP→CF 28°
wind impact on total
+0.02 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Robert GasserLHP · MIL
Trevor RogersLHP · BAL
xERA 2026
4.19
3.66
xwOBA 2026
0.315
0.296
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.007
0.014
xERA 2025
4.96
3.41
xwOBA 2025
0.342
0.288
Outs/TB 25-26
1.85
2.43
FIP 25-26
4.46
3.29
kwERA 25-26
3.72
3.40
K% 25-26
21.8%
22.9%
BB% 25-26
7.8%
6.2%
IP 25+26 combined
102.0
267.3
ERA actual 2026
4.30
4.22
ERA (L4)
4.08
4.68
WHIP (L4)
1.30
1.12
K% (L4)
22.8%
29.3%
BB% (L4)
12.7%
2.0%
IP/gm (L4)
4.42
6.25
L4 window
08/20→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/27→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
106 (−0)
99 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.14 (−0.22)
3.20 (−1.04)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.22
0.09
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 -0.22
Sweeper—-1.40xwOBA 0.263
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.258
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.366
Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.399
Changeup—-2.70xwOBA 0.384
home arsenal — BAL
RV/100 0.09
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.305
Changeup—-2.20xwOBA 0.344
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.219
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.271
Cutter—+0.50xwOBA 0.317
away · MIL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.890
Σ match
2.801
Σ FRV
+1.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.343
0.336
+7.9
2
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.355
0.330
+3.6
3
DH
William Contreras
0.336
0.316
-2.9
4
1B
Andrew Vaughn
0.330
0.339
-6.2
5
3B
Joey Ortiz
0.300
0.288
+11.3
6
C
Gary Sánchez
0.341
0.354
-5.3
7
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.317
0.278
+1.0
8
RF
Luis Lara
0.297
0.289
+0.7
9
2B
David Hamilton
0.271
0.272
-8.4
home · BAL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.740
Σ match
2.927
Σ FRV
-8.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Jeremiah Jackson
0.288
0.306
-1.4
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.395
0.410
-2.1
3
DH
Coby Mayo
0.333
0.351
-2.0
4
3B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.338
0.359
+1.0
5
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.320
0.335
+1.5
6
RF
Rece Hinds
0.170
0.231
-0.3
7
LF
Christian Franklin
0.306
0.324
-0.1
8
C
Samuel Basallo
0.322
0.336
-3.1
9
CF
Leody Taveras
0.268
0.275
-2.0
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
Gary Sánchez
FRV-5.3
framing-2.5
blocking-1.5
throwing-0.2
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Samuel Basallo
FRV-3.1
framing-5.4
blocking+0.9
throwing+2.0
MIL · Robert Gasser
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs CIN · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
107(+1)
106
Location+
95
97(+2)
97
Pitching+
96
100(+3)
97
botStf
54
54(-0)
54
botCmd
56
51(-4)
55
botOvr
56
56(-0)
57
SIERA
4.36
3.85(-0.51)
4.14
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.78
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BAL · Trevor Rogers
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs TOR · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
94(-8)
99
Location+
106
124(+18)
122
Pitching+
105
118(+13)
115
botStf
53
51(-2)
51
botCmd
59
67(+7)
66
botOvr
58
65(+6)
63
SIERA
4.24
5.01(+0.77)
3.20
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.17
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.44]
0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.08)
BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.43]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.28)
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.88
28.4
6.5
0.97
28/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.75
26.6
8.6
0.99
6/21/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.22
30.2
11.2
1.23
2/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.23
22.1
8.1
0.98
0/21/4
stable
Shane Drohan
SWING
MR
3.76
23.7
8.2
3.80
1/3/3
ramping up
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
3.88
21.8
9.9
2.46
6/10/5
ramping down
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.70
19.3
8.3
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
3.97
26.7
14.9
1.29
0/5/5
stable
Colton Gordon
MR
LR
10.38
22.0
6.0
2.33
0/0/0
ramping down
BAL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Grant Wolfram
SETUP
MR
2.65
27.1
6.9
0.80
1/13/3
stable
Yennier Cano
SETUP
SU
2.78
21.7
6.1
0.74
3/13/6
stable
Anthony Nunez
SETUP
MR
3.49
26.9
10.6
1.12
3/7/7
stable
Andrew Kittredge
SETUP
CL
3.79
18.6
5.2
0.87
10/9/11
stable
Rico Garcia
SETUP
CL
3.97
25.5
8.5
0.93
9/18/16
stable
Josh Walker
MR
MR
3.27
23.1
8.5
1.20
1/4/3
ramping down
Alex Hoppe
MR
MR
3.44
24.0
10.4
1.14
1/5/13
stable
Cam Sanders
MR
MR
3.53
28.2
15.3
1.00
3/1/5
stable
Luis De León
unknown
MR
4.13
15.6
6.2
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.