Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 824545past slate · free
refreshed 148h 28m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Rate Field
gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 98%
wind
5 mph
in from LF
precip
31%
drizzle
park
CWS
open · HP→CF 38°
wind impact on total
-0.11 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jackson JobeRHP · DET
Sean BurkeRHP · CWS
xERA 2026
4.46
3.82
xwOBA 2026
0.324
0.302
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.013
0.001
xERA 2025
4.90
4.93
xwOBA 2025
0.340
0.341
Outs/TB 25-26
1.85
1.94
FIP 25-26
5.04
4.21
kwERA 25-26
4.31
3.63
K% 25-26
20.0%
24.2%
BB% 25-26
10.9%
9.5%
IP 25+26 combined
83.7
295.3
ERA actual 2026
3.89
3.47
ERA (L4)
3.48
7.31
WHIP (L4)
1.21
2.00
K% (L4)
26.4%
19.2%
BB% (L4)
9.2%
17.9%
IP/gm (L4)
5.17
4.00
L4 window
08/25→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/21→09/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (−5)
96 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.49 (−0.69)
8.22 (+3.94)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.61
0.34
away arsenal — DET
RV/100 -0.61
4-Seam Fastball—-2.60xwOBA 0.449
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.282
Sinker—+3.40xwOBA 0.229
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.225
Changeup—-4.20xwOBA 0.312
home arsenal — CWS
RV/100 0.34
4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.274
Curveball—-0.70xwOBA 0.267
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.339
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.363
Cutter—+1.80xwOBA 0.338
away · DET vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.988
Σ match
2.975
Σ FRV
-3.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
Kevin McGonigle
0.361
0.362
-1.7
2
2B
Hao-Yu Lee
0.303
0.297
-8.1
3
1B
Colt Keith
0.335
0.340
-1.7
4
DH
Riley Greene
0.374
0.386
-6.4
5
C
Dillon Dingler
0.339
0.333
+13.3
6
CF
Max Clark
0.315
0.303
+2.8
7
RF
Ben Malgeri
0.314
0.315
+0.4
8
LF
Brett Callahan
0.297
0.300
-1.0
9
SS
John Peck
0.350
0.340
-1.1
home · CWS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.845
Σ match
2.975
Σ FRV
+2.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Sam Antonacci
0.342
0.363
-9.7
2
C
Kyle Teel
0.320
0.314
-1.7
3
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.378
0.383
-4.2
4
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.341
0.377
-2.1
5
DH
Andrew Benintendi
0.309
0.327
-1.6
6
SS
Colson Montgomery
0.302
0.292
+10.3
7
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.295
0.311
+10.9
8
RF
Braden Montgomery
0.324
0.360
+1.6
9
CF
Brenton Doyle
0.234
0.248
-1.4
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Dillon Dingler
FRV+13.3
framing+7.4
blocking+2.8
throwing+3.0
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Kyle Teel
FRV-1.7
framing-1.8
blocking-1.0
throwing+1.1
DET · Jackson Jobe
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs COL · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
96(-7)
98
Location+
101
99(-2)
97
Pitching+
105
96(-10)
98
botStf
55
52(-3)
54
botCmd
49
47(-2)
47
botOvr
53
49(-4)
49
SIERA
4.19
2.53(-1.66)
3.49
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.94
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CWS · Sean Burke
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs CLE · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
107(+8)
96
Location+
100
89(-11)
88
Pitching+
99
97(-2)
88
botStf
51
54(+3)
50
botCmd
55
49(-6)
52
botOvr
54
50(-4)
50
SIERA
4.29
4.04(-0.25)
8.22
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.73
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.