Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 824461past slate · free
refreshed 143h 37m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Great American Ball Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
87°F
humidity 54%
wind
1 mph
in from CF
precip
17%
clear
park
CIN
open · HP→CF 24°
wind impact on total
-0.01 R/Gnone calm
Calm air — wind not a factor.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Matthew BoydLHP · CHC
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN
xERA 2026
4.67
6.32
xwOBA 2026
0.331
0.377
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.018
-0.002
xERA 2025
3.74
3.51
xwOBA 2025
0.301
0.292
Outs/TB 25-26
2.16
1.87
FIP 25-26
3.91
4.55
kwERA 25-26
3.72
3.56
K% 25-26
20.4%
22.0%
BB% 25-26
6.4%
6.7%
IP 25+26 combined
294.3
253.3
ERA actual 2026
4.16
5.12
ERA (L4)
4.18
5.40
WHIP (L4)
1.23
1.38
K% (L4)
19.4%
21.1%
BB% (L4)
7.5%
11.6%
IP/gm (L4)
5.92
5.42
L4 window
08/26→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/26→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
93 (−3)
105 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.49 (+0.13)
4.89 (+0.15)
Arsenal RV/100
0.07
-1.00
away arsenal — CHC
RV/100 0.07
4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.388
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.322
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.234
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.227
home arsenal — CIN
RV/100 -1.00
4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.337
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.465
Curveball—-0.90xwOBA 0.295
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.360
away · CHC vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.924
Σ match
3.405
Σ FRV
+67.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.376
0.438
+27.2
2
3B
Alex Bregman
0.322
0.376
+6.1
3
DH
Seiya Suzuki
0.337
0.416
+7.8
4
LF
Tyrone Taylor
0.310
0.368
+1.7
5
2B
Nico Hoerner
0.321
0.370
+8.9
6
1B
Michael Busch
0.330
0.389
+2.5
7
C
Carson Kelly
0.317
0.360
+0.7
8
RF
Matt Shaw
0.305
0.332
+1.5
9
SS
Dansby Swanson
0.306
0.356
+11.3
home · CIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.880
Σ match
3.033
Σ FRV
-8.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Dane Myers
0.312
0.317
-0.2
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.376
0.427
+5.0
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.348
0.353
-4.2
4
C
Tyler Stephenson
0.331
0.343
-7.5
5
DH
Eugenio Suárez
0.298
0.319
-5.9
6
RF
Juan Brito
0.285
0.306
-1.6
7
LF
JJ Bleday
0.340
0.361
-2.3
8
2B
Matt McLain
0.298
0.306
+3.5
9
3B
Ke'Bryan Hayes
0.292
0.300
+4.6
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carson Kelly
FRV+0.7
framing+1.2
blocking+1.8
throwing-2.3
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Tyler Stephenson
FRV-7.5
framing-9.2
blocking+3.4
throwing-1.8
CHC · Matthew Boyd
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs PIT · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
90(-6)
93
Location+
107
95(-12)
102
Pitching+
101
85(-16)
93
botStf
47
46(-1)
47
botCmd
56
52(-4)
56
botOvr
52
48(-4)
51
SIERA
4.36
5.16(+0.80)
4.49
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.06
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CIN · Nick Lodolo
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs LAD · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
105
108(+3)
105
Location+
89
97(+8)
87
Pitching+
92
104(+11)
89
botStf
49
49(+0)
46
botCmd
53
57(+4)
52
botOvr
50
55(+5)
49
SIERA
4.74
5.75(+1.01)
4.89
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.86
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.40–0.50]
0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Javier Assad (4.29)
CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.51]
0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.90)
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
4.39
23.9
9.2
0.88
3/1/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.88
31.1
13.3
1.15
6/13/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
CL
4.10
25.5
8.7
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.89
29.1
9.0
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
5.00
16.3
7.0
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
4.04
21.0
11.1
1.12
2/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.54
18.9
7.0
4.67
2/0/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.86
17.4
8.2
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
Edward Cabrera
SP
MR
5.30
20.6
10.0
5.17
0/0/0
ramping down
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.32
25.9
6.6
0.91
24/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.67
27.4
16.3
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.75
23.9
12.8
0.95
2/21/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.93
18.7
9.1
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.05
18.8
14.7
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Zach McCambley
MR
MR
3.44
20.9
14.0
1.08
0/0/3
ramping down
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.51
31.3
12.9
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.84
24.3
7.2
1.00
1/10/6
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.