Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 824380past slate · free
refreshed 143h 41m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Progressive Field
gametime 6:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
70°F
humidity 77%
wind
5 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
35%
overcast
park
CLE
open · HP→CF 25°
wind impact on total
+0.04 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Jacob LopezLHP · ATH
Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE
xERA 2026
3.51
4.28
xwOBA 2026
0.290
0.318
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.051
-0.011
xERA 2025
3.64
3.64
xwOBA 2025
0.297
0.297
Outs/TB 25-26
1.87
1.95
FIP 25-26
4.70
4.45
kwERA 25-26
3.72
3.84
K% 25-26
24.2%
20.2%
BB% 25-26
10.2%
7.2%
IP 25+26 combined
207.3
359.7
ERA actual 2026
5.02
4.16
ERA (L4)
5.23
5.57
WHIP (L4)
1.50
1.48
K% (L4)
18.5%
18.3%
BB% (L4)
9.8%
10.8%
IP/gm (L4)
5.17
5.25
L4 window
08/28→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/28→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (+3)
101 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.77 (+0.68)
5.93 (+1.25)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.33
0.20
away arsenal — ATH
RV/100 -0.33
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.280
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.235
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.340
Changeup—-6.10xwOBA 0.406
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.399
home arsenal — CLE
RV/100 0.20
Cutter—+0.60xwOBA 0.329
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.337
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.353
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.230
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.314
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.303
away · ATH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.780
Σ match
2.907
Σ FRV
-23.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Henry Bolte
0.318
0.327
+3.2
2
1B
Jeff McNeil
0.301
0.317
-2.0
3
DH
Shea Langeliers
0.361
0.373
-3.6
4
RF
Lawrence Butler
0.324
0.330
-10.2
5
3B
Zack Gelof
0.314
0.327
+0.5
6
2B
Donovan Walton
0.329
0.356
-6.9
7
LF
Carlos Cortes
0.302
0.310
-7.3
8
C
Brian Serven
0.290
0.305
+0.5
9
SS
Alika Williams
0.241
0.261
+2.8
home · CLE vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.768
Σ match
2.598
Σ FRV
+8.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Steven Kwan
0.324
0.294
+7.1
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.328
0.304
+1.6
3
DH
Chase DeLauter
0.344
0.323
+1.7
4
RF
Jo Adell
0.327
0.303
-9.3
5
LF
Angel Martínez
0.304
0.312
+3.2
6
1B
David Fry
0.265
0.238
-1.7
7
2B
Travis Bazzana
0.305
0.279
-3.0
8
C
Austin Hedges
0.276
0.263
-2.0
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.295
0.281
+10.7
defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)
Brian Serven
FRV+0.5
framing-0.7
blocking+1.5
throwing-0.3
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Hedges
FRV-2.0
framing+1.2
blocking-0.9
throwing-2.3
ATH · Jacob Lopez
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs SEA · 3.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
102(+4)
102
Location+
102
116(+15)
110
Pitching+
99
115(+16)
109
botStf
49
47(-2)
49
botCmd
52
64(+12)
61
botOvr
52
59(+7)
58
SIERA
5.09
6.25(+1.16)
5.77
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.24
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CLE · Tanner Bibee
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs MIN · 6.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
101(-2)
101
Location+
100
100(-1)
94
Pitching+
101
99(-2)
93
botStf
51
52(+2)
50
botCmd
55
51(-4)
49
botOvr
54
50(-4)
49
SIERA
4.68
4.06(-0.62)
5.93
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.74
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.51]
0.103 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Yunior Tur (5.04)
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.47]
0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.06)
ATH
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Luis Medina
SETUP
SU
3.57
29.7
12.0
1.38
0/12/10
stable
Hogan Harris
SETUP
CL
4.12
28.4
13.4
0.93
15/13/13
stable
Drew Rom
MR
MR
3.25
26.7
11.7
1.13
0/3/1
stable
Geoff Hartlieb
MR
MR
3.69
16.0
10.0
2.13
0/2/3
ramping down
Seth Johnson
MR
LR
4.29
26.9
12.7
1.13
0/0/4
stable
Elvis Alvarado
MR
CL
4.64
27.5
11.4
1.08
6/9/11
stable
Chris Roycroft
MR
MR
6.41
14.5
9.7
1.28
1/1/6
ramping up
Yunior Tur
MR
MR
8.99
18.2
15.2
2.00
0/0/0
insufficient data
Scott Blewett
unknown
MR
3.06
21.4
7.9
—
0/2/0
—
CLE
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Cade Smith
CLOSER
CL
2.28
35.6
7.8
1.05
38/0/37
stable
Erik Sabrowski
SETUP
SU
2.91
36.6
15.2
0.78
1/25/2
stable
Matt Festa
SETUP
MR
3.33
25.0
6.9
0.97
1/7/13
stable
Hunter Gaddis
SETUP
SU
3.64
22.2
8.8
0.86
1/30/2
stable
Tim Herrin
SETUP
MR
4.14
22.8
11.6
0.79
0/15/5
stable
Daniel Espino
MR
MR
4.29
37.3
11.9
1.00
0/0/1
stable
Craig Yoho
MR
MR
4.63
25.3
10.8
1.33
0/3/5
stable
Connor Brogdon
unknown
MR
6.03
21.4
4.3
—
1/4/0
—
Slade Cecconi
SP
LR
4.61
18.7
7.5
5.21
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.