Baseball Daily

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today's slate

SEA @ COL

Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 824304past slate · free

refreshed 142h 28m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 31%

wind

9 mph

in from LF

precip

44%

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.15 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.15 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Bryce MillerRHP · SEA	Jose QuintanaLHP · COL
xERA 2026	3.69	5.07
xwOBA 2026	0.297	0.343
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.013	0.021
xERA 2025	5.30	5.20
xwOBA 2025	0.352	0.349
Outs/TB 25-26	1.77	1.96
FIP 25-26	4.83	4.93
kwERA 25-26	3.77	4.71
K% 25-26	21.8%	14.8%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	9.1%
IP 25+26 combined	197.7	172.7
ERA actual 2026	4.19	5.27
ERA (L4)	6.62	11.57
WHIP (L4)	1.75	2.00
K% (L4)	22.9%	11.4%
BB% (L4)	19.3%	2.9%
IP/gm (L4)	4.42	3.50
L4 window	08/23→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	05/18→05/24 (2 st) · 1/2 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.18	-1.05

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -0.18

4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.327
Split-Finger—+0.70xwOBA 0.218
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.340
Sinker—-0.80xwOBA 0.377
Sweeper—+2.40xwOBA 0.200
Cutter—-6.30xwOBA 0.488
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.172

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -1.05

4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.328
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.346
Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.395
Curveball—+0.30xwOBA 0.335
Slurve—-4.70xwOBA 0.315

away · SEA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.998

Σ match

3.211

Σ FRV

-25.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.326	0.366	-8.5
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.347	0.385	-7.3
3	RF	Dominic Canzone	0.355	0.385	-0.0
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.310	0.347	-4.0
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.333	0.373	-0.6
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.313	0.341	+2.2
7	2B	Michael Arroyo	0.380	0.355	+0.5
8	DH	Lazaro Montes	0.370	0.364	-0.8
9	3B	Weston Wilson	0.264	0.294	-6.8

home · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.784

Σ match

2.705

Σ FRV

-2.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jake McCarthy	0.327	0.326	-0.7
2	2B	Connor Norby	0.308	0.296	-2.2
3	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.336	0.324	+4.4
4	C	Hunter Goodman	0.320	0.314	-1.9
5	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.311	0.291	+0.1
6	3B	Kyle Karros	0.340	0.333	+0.4
7	DH	Mickey Moniak	0.280	0.273	+0.2
8	RF	Zac Veen	0.282	0.274	-3.4
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.280	0.273	+0.7

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-4.0
framing-3.5
blocking+2.6
throwing-3.1

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-1.9
framing+0.3
blocking-0.7
throwing-1.5

SEA · Bryce Miller

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs ATH · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 99 · Pitching+ 113 · botStf 55 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 4.06

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 108 · Pitching+ 113 · botStf 54 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 60 · SIERA 4.82

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Jose Quintana

Last outing 2026-05-24 vs AZ · 1.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 2 starts: 2026-05-18 → 2026-05-24. 1/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-05-18: Stuff+ 80 · Location+ 108 · Pitching+ 82 · botStf 34 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 44 · SIERA 4.22

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-05-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.37–0.47]

0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.60)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.49R / inningband [0.44–0.53]

0.115 R/PA · 0.162 R/out · worst: Zach Agnos (4.69)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.06	37.6	9.7	0.93	28/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.95	18.1	6.5	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.14	22.2	8.3	0.82	1/21/5	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.67	22.9	7.9	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.68	12.7	6.1	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	SU	4.70	24.9	12.4	0.89	12/7/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.49	19.6	7.2	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.06	25.9	8.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.09	23.3	3.3	—	0/0/0	—

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.85	25.2	12.6	0.79	15/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.23	21.3	13.2	0.83	2/13/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	SU	4.37	20.5	13.2	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.63	17.9	5.8	0.86	1/13/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	MR	5.39	19.5	11.3	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.47	14.6	8.7	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	3.02	23.3	15.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	4.59	23.2	7.3	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 SEA · 5 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

3 R

8H · 2HR · 2BB · 8K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.471 · K% 22.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 8 K · relief 2.7 IP · 5 arms

COL

5 R

9H · 0HR · 4BB · 8K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.351 · SLGe 0.273 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Randy Arozarena (LF) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Cal Raleigh (C) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, KHR

tough nights

J.P. Crawford (SS) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Josh Naylor (1B) · 0-40-for-4
Lazaro Montes (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

COL · standout lines

tough nights

Mickey Moniak (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4