Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 824137past slate · free
refreshed 143h 38m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Daikin Park
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
89°F
humidity 49%
wind
8 mph
out to LF
precip
0%
clear
park
HOU
retractable · HP→CF 345°
wind impact on total
+0.02 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Grant HolmesRHP · ATL
Hayden WesneskiRHP · HOU
xERA 2026
4.83
3.69
xwOBA 2026
0.336
0.297
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.025
-0.009
xERA 2025
4.55
4.30
xwOBA 2025
0.329
0.321
Outs/TB 25-26
2.06
2.03
FIP 25-26
4.55
4.15
kwERA 25-26
4.08
3.76
K% 25-26
21.3%
20.4%
BB% 25-26
10.3%
6.7%
IP 25+26 combined
256.7
80.7
ERA actual 2026
3.49
3.70
ERA (L4)
2.50
3.00
WHIP (L4)
1.17
1.00
K% (L4)
13.9%
18.8%
BB% (L4)
6.9%
7.1%
IP/gm (L4)
4.50
5.25
L4 window
08/28→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/27→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
90 (+3)
93 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.85 (+0.15)
4.70 (+0.33)
Arsenal RV/100
0.27
0.56
away arsenal — ATL
RV/100 0.27
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.298
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.382
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.410
Cutter—-1.20xwOBA 0.414
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.254
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.263
home arsenal — HOU
RV/100 0.56
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.247
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.350
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.272
Cutter—-1.40xwOBA 0.344
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.227
away · ATL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.868
Σ match
2.692
Σ FRV
+14.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Drake Baldwin
0.366
0.358
+0.3
2
RF
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.364
0.337
-5.0
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.354
0.332
+10.7
4
CF
Michael Harris II
0.340
0.324
+11.0
5
SS
Mauricio Dubón
0.308
0.283
+3.3
6
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.281
0.270
-2.8
7
LF
Mike Yastrzemski
0.307
0.279
-0.9
8
3B
Austin Riley
0.296
0.276
-0.8
9
C
Sean Murphy
0.252
0.233
-1.2
home · HOU vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.833
Σ match
3.108
Σ FRV
-7.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Jeremy Peña
0.325
0.364
-2.4
2
DH
Yordan Alvarez
0.443
0.490
-2.7
3
3B
Isaac Paredes
0.319
0.337
+2.0
4
2B
Jose Altuve
0.271
0.296
-10.0
5
C
Yainer Diaz
0.301
0.335
-4.4
6
CF
Daulton Varsho
0.284
0.300
+3.7
7
1B
Christian Walker
0.298
0.319
+6.3
8
RF
Cam Smith
0.318
0.368
+2.2
9
LF
LaMonte Wade Jr.
0.274
0.299
-2.3
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Sean Murphy
FRV-1.2
framing-0.9
blocking+0.9
throwing-1.2
defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)
Yainer Diaz
FRV-4.4
framing-3.6
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.2
ATL · Grant Holmes
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs PHI · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
87
86(-2)
90
Location+
100
89(-11)
93
Pitching+
90
83(-7)
87
botStf
49
49(-0)
49
botCmd
52
47(-5)
48
botOvr
51
47(-4)
47
SIERA
4.70
7.72(+3.02)
4.85
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.33
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
HOU · Hayden Wesneski
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs TB · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
95
85(-10)
93
Location+
100
98(-3)
102
Pitching+
96
90(-6)
95
botStf
51
49(-3)
50
botCmd
54
58(+4)
59
botOvr
53
54(+1)
55
SIERA
4.37
5.75(+1.38)
4.70
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.02
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
9
6 ATL · 3 HOU
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
ATL
6 R
11H · 2HR · 4BB · 4K · 16LOB
OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.529 · K% 10.5
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms
HOU
3 R
10H · 1HR · 1BB · 7K · 10LOB
OBPe 0.306 · SLGe 0.457 · K% 19.4
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms
ATL · standout lines
big nights
Drake Baldwin (DH) · 3-5 | 2B, K, R3 H · 4 TB
Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 2-3 | HR, 2 BB, 4 RBIHR · 4 RBI