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today's slate

MIN @ LAA

Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 823976past slate · free

refreshed 140h 59m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 9:38 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

72°F

humidity 71%

wind

6 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.17 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.17 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Joe RyanRHP · MIN	Reid DetmersLHP · LAA
xERA 2026	3.66	3.23
xwOBA 2026	0.296	0.279
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.012	-0.009
xERA 2025	3.43	3.61
xwOBA 2025	0.289	0.296
Outs/TB 25-26	1.96	2.36
FIP 25-26	3.71	3.05
kwERA 25-26	2.79	2.81
K% 25-26	27.2%	29.0%
BB% 25-26	5.4%	7.3%
IP 25+26 combined	304.7	237.7
ERA actual 2026	3.84	3.36
ERA (L4)	6.52	1.80
WHIP (L4)	1.50	0.96
K% (L4)	16.3%	28.7%
BB% (L4)	4.3%	2.1%
IP/gm (L4)	4.83	6.25
L4 window	07/29→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.21	0.96

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 0.21

4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.322
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.221
Split-Finger—+1.00xwOBA 0.273
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.195
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.399
Slider—-1.10xwOBA 0.417

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.96

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.313
Slider—+2.10xwOBA 0.217
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.318
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.306

away · MIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.794

Σ match

2.462

Σ FRV

-13.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.318	0.274	-11.1
2	LF	Austin Martin	0.307	0.270	+3.1
3	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.351	0.298	-4.7
4	DH	Josh Bell	0.333	0.312	-0.9
5	3B	Brooks Lee	0.276	0.240	-0.9
6	2B	Royce Lewis	0.307	0.245	-1.7
7	1B	Victor Caratini	0.313	0.269	+0.6
8	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.301	0.284	+0.2
9	SS	Ryan Kreidler	0.288	0.269	+2.1

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.694

Σ match

2.630

Σ FRV

+3.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.312	0.308	-2.0
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.377	0.356	-3.9
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.310	0.305	+2.1
4	2B	Vaughn Grissom	0.305	0.301	-6.4
5	1B	Moisés Ballesteros	0.301	0.294	-2.2
6	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.267	0.244	-0.2
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.287	0.279	+5.5
8	CF	Jose Siri	0.299	0.305	+2.2
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.236	0.237	+8.3

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-4.7
framing-1.1
blocking+0.1
throwing-3.7

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+8.3
framing+5.7
blocking-0.0
throwing+2.6

MIN · Joe Ryan

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs CLE · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-04 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-07: Stuff+ 111 · Location+ 69 · Pitching+ 75 · botStf 54 · botCmd 45 · botOvr 47 · SIERA 2.17

2026-08-04: Stuff+ 98 · Location+ 104 · Pitching+ 98 · botStf 46 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 4.67

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Reid Detmers

Last outing 2026-09-14 vs SEA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-14. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 104 · Location+ 112 · Pitching+ 114 · botStf 52 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 1.91

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 109 · Location+ 122 · Pitching+ 125 · botStf 52 · botCmd 67 · botOvr 65 · SIERA 1.86

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.48]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.51)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Sam Bachman (4.25)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.48	21.5	13.0	1.12	22/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.33	35.5	9.6	0.94	5/21/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.79	21.5	12.6	0.94	1/12/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.32	18.8	11.3	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.16	21.1	8.2	1.31	4/22/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.77	26.7	9.0	1.04	0/7/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	4.00	23.3	4.7	1.00	1/9/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.28	23.5	10.3	1.46	3/1/6	stable

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Bachman	SETUP	MR	4.76	23.2	13.6	1.17	1/17/4	ramping down
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.57	28.2	6.4	0.56	0/9/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.86	27.0	10.6	1.11	1/8/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	3.93	20.2	7.4	1.61	3/8/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.64	25.2	11.1	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.49	19.4	3.0	—	0/3/0	—
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	3.58	30.5	15.3	—	5/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.67	23.7	13.2	—	0/5/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	4.89	26.2	8.8	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 MIN · 6 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

5 R

11H · 1HR · 2BB · 12K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.395 · K% 26.7

Their pitching

10.7 IP · 5 ER · 12 K · relief 5.7 IP · 7 arms

LAA

6 R

11H · 2HR · 6BB · 12K · 33LOB

OBPe 0.392 · SLGe 0.452 · K% 23.5

Their pitching

11.0 IP · 5 ER · 12 K · relief 6.0 IP · 7 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Ryan Kreidler (SS) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 KHR

tough nights

Austin Martin (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K
Ryan Jeffers (C) · 0-50-for-5

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, HBPHR
Jose Siri (CF) · 2-4 | HR, BB, 2 KHR

tough nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 0-4 | BB, HBP, 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Moisés Ballesteros (C) · 0-6 | 2 K0-for-6 · 2 K