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today's slate

SF @ LAD

Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 823899past slate · free

refreshed 143h 36m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 9:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 61%

wind

8 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.14 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.14 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Yunior MarteRHP · SF	Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD
xERA 2026	3.53	2.95
xwOBA 2026	0.291	0.267
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.005	-0.005
xERA 2025	—	2.71
xwOBA 2025	—	0.258
Outs/TB 25-26	2.20	2.52
FIP 25-26	4.86	2.47
kwERA 25-26	4.79	2.16
K% 25-26	15.3%	31.4%
BB% 25-26	10.2%	4.4%
IP 25+26 combined	14.7	342.0
ERA actual 2026	2.45	2.70
ERA (L4)	—	1.73
WHIP (L4)	—	0.96
K% (L4)	—	27.3%
BB% (L4)	—	4.0%
IP/gm (L4)	—	6.50
L4 window	—	08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.94	1.15

away arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.94

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.289
Slider—+1.00xwOBA 0.289

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.15

4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.279
Changeup—+1.20xwOBA 0.232
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.313
Slider—+1.60xwOBA 0.269
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.225

away · SF vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.543

Σ match

2.230

Σ FRV

-15.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jonah Cox	0.271	0.237	+1.8
2	LF	Turner Hill	0.326	0.288	-0.4
3	DH	Victor Bericoto	0.282	0.244	-2.4
4	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.314	0.264	-6.7
5	1B	Brett Harris	0.257	0.267	+0.6
6	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.260	0.231	+0.8
7	C	Andrew Knizner	0.300	0.246	-5.2
8	2B	Osleivis Basabe	0.279	0.237	-5.3
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.254	0.215	+1.7

home · LAD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.136

Σ match

2.895

Σ FRV

-0.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Mookie Betts	0.339	0.295	+6.1
2	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.366	0.331	+1.4
3	C	Will Smith	0.380	0.340	-0.9
4	3B	Max Muncy	0.350	0.358	+1.8
5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.334	0.311	-6.0
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.334	0.318	-6.8
7	DH	Josue De Paula	0.435	0.349	+0.0
8	CF	Tommy Edman	0.302	0.277	+1.7
9	2B	Alex Freeland	0.296	0.316	+2.0

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner

FRV-5.2
framing-2.6
blocking-1.0
throwing-1.5

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith

FRV-0.9
framing-1.8
blocking+0.5
throwing+0.4

SF · Yunior Marte: no recent outing on file.

LAD · Tarik Skubal

Last outing 2026-09-14 vs CIN · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-14. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 112 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 112 · botStf 56 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 60 · SIERA 2.88

2026-09-03: Stuff+ 112 · Location+ 105 · Pitching+ 116 · botStf 55 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 3.54

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.38–0.57]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.40)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.05)

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	CL	5.56	13.0	8.6	1.01	8/6/16	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	MR	3.67	25.9	12.3	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.74	13.3	9.5	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.40	17.2	7.5	1.67	0/4/1	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	5.77	16.4	12.5	2.17	1/8/0	insufficient data
Philip Abner	MR	MR	7.81	12.0	12.0	1.87	0/1/1	stable
Trent Harris	unknown	MR	1.59	32.5	9.1	—	1/5/0	—
Matt Wilkinson	unknown	MR	5.12	14.8	4.9	—	0/0/0	—

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.15	32.1	5.8	0.94	22/13/21	stable
Edwin Díaz	CLOSER	MR	5.55	25.3	12.0	0.86	7/0/6	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	SU	3.29	29.9	13.8	0.76	3/20/6	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.56	25.6	9.1	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.55	28.1	9.1	1.01	2/11/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	4.10	23.1	9.9	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.64	28.0	6.5	1.00	1/7/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.31	15.3	12.4	0.90	0/2/4	stable
Kris Bubic	SP	MR	3.57	25.1	12.1	5.59	0/1/0	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	LR	4.21	20.3	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 SF · 10 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SF

4 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 11K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 28.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 4 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

LAD

10 R

15H · 1HR · 5BB · 4K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.465 · SLGe 0.605 · K% 9.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 11 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

SF · standout lines

big nights

Victor Bericoto (DH) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, BBHR

tough nights

Jonah Cox (2B) · 0-3 | 3 K, RBI0-for-3 · 3 K
Shay Whitcomb (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Mookie Betts (SS) · 4-4 | 3 2B, BB, 2 RBI4 H · 7 TB
Will Smith (C) · 3-5 | HR, 2 RBI, 2 RHR · 3 H
Max Muncy (3B) · 2-5 | 2 2B, RBI, R4 TB

tough nights

Freddie Freeman (1B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5