Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 823571past slate · free
refreshed 146h 26m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citi Field
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
72°F
humidity 49%
wind
5 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
partly cloudy
park
NYM
open · HP→CF 21°
wind impact on total
-0.13 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Andrew PainterRHP · PHI
Christian ScottRHP · NYM
xERA 2026
4.55
3.69
xwOBA 2026
0.327
0.297
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.015
0.004
xERA 2025
—
—
xwOBA 2025
—
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.74
2.26
FIP 25-26
4.75
3.73
kwERA 25-26
4.05
3.25
K% 25-26
19.7%
28.0%
BB% 25-26
8.5%
10.2%
IP 25+26 combined
115.3
105.3
ERA actual 2026
5.54
3.76
ERA (L4)
3.52
4.79
WHIP (L4)
1.26
1.16
K% (L4)
21.6%
25.6%
BB% (L4)
9.3%
12.8%
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
5.17
L4 window
08/28→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/22→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
104 (+1)
108 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.49 (+0.02)
4.68 (+0.34)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.44
0.34
away arsenal — PHI
RV/100 -0.44
4-Seam Fastball—-2.20xwOBA 0.397
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.338
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.308
Changeup—+3.80xwOBA 0.163
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.411
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.234
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.222
home arsenal — NYM
RV/100 0.34
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.319
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.240
Cutter—+1.80xwOBA 0.315
Curveball—-3.40xwOBA 0.248
Split-Finger—-1.50xwOBA 0.303
away · PHI vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.912
Σ match
2.749
Σ FRV
-17.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.364
0.336
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.292
0.273
-9.5
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.383
0.392
-11.1
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.307
0.298
+11.1
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.328
0.300
-6.1
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.328
0.310
+5.9
7
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.301
0.282
-5.5
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.321
0.291
+0.1
9
CF
Justin Crawford
0.288
0.267
-1.5
home · NYM vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.871
Σ match
3.037
Σ FRV
-3.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.331
0.342
+0.4
2
LF
Juan Soto
0.416
0.447
-5.5
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.325
0.338
-1.7
4
RF
Carson Benge
0.338
0.352
+7.2
5
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.320
0.344
+6.4
6
2B
Marcus Semien
0.303
0.310
-8.6
7
1B
Brett Baty
0.312
0.320
+0.3
8
C
Francisco Alvarez
0.321
0.334
+1.5
9
DH
Ronny Mauricio
0.205
0.249
-3.1
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+0.1
framing-0.8
blocking-1.2
throwing+2.1
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Francisco Alvarez
FRV+1.5
framing+2.5
blocking-2.0
throwing+1.0
PHI · Andrew Painter
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs ATL · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
98(-5)
104
Location+
102
85(-17)
103
Pitching+
106
89(-16)
106
botStf
55
56(+1)
57
botCmd
54
45(-9)
55
botOvr
55
48(-8)
57
SIERA
4.47
6.31(+1.84)
4.49
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.16
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYM · Christian Scott
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs NYY · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
110(+3)
108
Location+
98
100(+3)
101
Pitching+
103
110(+8)
111
botStf
58
60(+2)
58
botCmd
53
55(+1)
54
botOvr
57
59(+1)
58
SIERA
4.33
4.13(-0.21)
4.68
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.25
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.