Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 823330past slate · free
refreshed 143h 40m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
72°F
humidity 84%
wind
3 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
12%
overcast
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
-0.01 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Noah CameronLHP · KC
Bubba ChandlerRHP · PIT
xERA 2026
3.93
4.22
xwOBA 2026
0.306
0.316
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.010
-0.008
xERA 2025
4.10
3.66
xwOBA 2025
0.314
0.298
Outs/TB 25-26
2.17
2.25
FIP 25-26
3.89
3.91
kwERA 25-26
3.79
4.05
K% 25-26
21.1%
21.5%
BB% 25-26
7.6%
10.3%
IP 25+26 combined
304.7
178.7
ERA actual 2026
3.84
4.28
ERA (L4)
2.74
3.68
WHIP (L4)
1.04
1.23
K% (L4)
22.8%
20.2%
BB% (L4)
6.5%
10.1%
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
5.50
L4 window
08/27→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/26→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (+1)
92 (−9)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.34 (−0.99)
4.75 (−0.22)
Arsenal RV/100
0.36
-0.02
away arsenal — KC
RV/100 0.36
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.370
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.319
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.274
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.230
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.302
Sinker—-2.40xwOBA 0.405
home arsenal — PIT
RV/100 -0.02
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.339
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.304
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.276
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.363
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.289
Sweeper—+0.50xwOBA 0.205
away · KC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.844
Σ match
2.931
Σ FRV
+22.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Carter Jensen
0.312
0.314
+2.7
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.378
0.390
+15.8
3
DH
Jac Caglianone
0.353
0.381
-8.1
4
1B
Vinnie Pasquantino
0.332
0.335
+0.8
5
2B
Michael Massey
0.309
0.306
+7.5
6
3B
Nick Loftin
0.290
0.296
-1.9
7
RF
John Rave
0.318
0.335
+1.5
8
CF
Kyle Isbel
0.257
0.266
+3.5
9
LF
Isaac Collins
0.295
0.308
+1.1
home · PIT vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.925
Σ match
2.890
Σ FRV
-5.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.306
0.300
-3.7
2
DH
Oneil Cruz
0.351
0.358
+1.8
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.354
0.353
-4.2
4
C
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.341
0.329
-0.3
5
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.326
0.333
+11.6
6
3B
Nick Gonzales
0.326
0.318
-10.0
7
1B
Ryan O'Hearn
0.318
0.305
-3.0
8
RF
Ronny Simon
0.315
0.314
+0.1
9
CF
Jake Mangum
0.288
0.281
+2.2
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carter Jensen
FRV+2.7
framing+2.7
blocking-2.2
throwing+2.2
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Rafael Flores Jr.
FRV-0.3
framing+0.7
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.4
KC · Noah Cameron
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs BOS · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
101(+4)
98
Location+
105
112(+7)
113
Pitching+
105
108(+3)
111
botStf
49
47(-2)
47
botCmd
53
58(+4)
59
botOvr
52
55(+3)
55
SIERA
4.33
4.17(-0.16)
3.34
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.95
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Bubba Chandler
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs CHC · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
92(-9)
92
Location+
103
83(-20)
105
Pitching+
106
82(-24)
99
botStf
58
53(-5)
51
botCmd
54
48(-6)
55
botOvr
57
46(-11)
52
SIERA
4.97
6.94(+1.97)
4.75
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.39
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.50R / inningband [0.45–0.54]
0.117 R/PA · 0.165 R/out · worst: Lucas Erceg (5.23)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.