Baseball Daily

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today's slate

MIA @ SD

Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 823249past slate · free
refreshed 141h 59m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Petco Park

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
73°F
humidity 65%
wind
7 mph
in from RF
precip
0%
clear
park
SD
open · HP→CF 0°
CFHP1B3BIN
wind impact on total
-0.10 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricEury PérezRHP · MIACasey MizeRHP · SD
xERA 20264.103.61
xwOBA 20260.3120.294
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.0030.005
xERA 20253.233.66
xwOBA 20250.2810.298
Outs/TB 25-262.211.85
FIP 25-263.923.77
kwERA 25-263.403.51
K% 25-2626.4%21.6%
BB% 25-269.7%5.9%
IP 25+26 combined239.7273.3
ERA actual 20263.993.69
ERA (L4)10.265.03
WHIP (L4)2.221.42
K% (L4)20.7%13.5%
BB% (L4)13.8%5.6%
IP/gm (L4)4.174.92
L4 window08/28→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified08/28→09/14 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)——
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)——
Arsenal RV/1000.140.04

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.14
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.329
  • Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.343
  • Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.299
  • Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.224
  • Changeup—-1.40xwOBA 0.293
  • Curveball—+0.30xwOBA 0.323

home arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.04
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.281
  • Slider—+0.80xwOBA 0.319
  • Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.263
  • Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.360
  • Slurve—-4.60xwOBA 0.280

away · MIA vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.771
Σ match
2.655
Σ FRV
+15.9
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1SSOtto Lopez0.3270.325+10.4
2LFHeriberto Hernández0.3490.347+0.5
31BKyle Stowers0.3250.307-2.8
43BJavier Sanoja0.2920.283+2.4
52BXavier Edwards0.3120.297-1.5
6CFJakob Marsee0.3120.280+4.8
7DHAgustín Ramírez0.2860.262-4.7
8CJoe Mack0.2850.286+10.3
9RFEsteury Ruiz0.2830.268-3.4

home · SD vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.903
Σ match
2.895
Σ FRV
+37.6
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
12BFernando Tatis Jr.0.3770.370+5.0
2RFDustin Harris0.3260.320+0.4
33BManny Machado0.3330.339+7.3
41BTy France0.3350.330+9.7
5CFJackson Merrill0.3510.347+9.7
6DHLuis Campusano0.3280.325-2.0
7SSJake Cronenworth0.2730.281-2.1
8LFSamad Taylor0.3070.309-0.4
9CFreddy Fermin0.2730.273+9.9

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack
  • FRV+10.3
  • framing+5.3
  • blocking+0.1
  • throwing+4.9

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Freddy Fermin
  • FRV+9.9
  • framing+3.1
  • blocking+2.2
  • throwing+4.5

MIA · Eury Pérez

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs LAD · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-07: Stuff+ 110 · Location+ 94 · Pitching+ 106 · botStf 57 · botCmd 50 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 4.74

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 100 · Location+ 91 · Pitching+ 97 · botStf 53 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 7.77

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SD · Casey Mize

Last outing 2026-09-14 vs COL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-14. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 84 · Location+ 104 · Pitching+ 92 · botStf 47 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 2.69

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 115 · Pitching+ 101 · botStf 43 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 4.13

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.53]
0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.20)
SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]
0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.43)

MIA

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Calvin FaucherSETUPCL2.9524.612.70.983/17/7stable
Michael PetersenSETUPSU3.2129.710.81.061/25/4stable
Dax FultonBULKMR3.4423.613.62.500/0/3ramping down
Cade GibsonMRMR4.1419.29.91.280/4/7stable
Victor VodnikMRMR4.2715.812.61.084/6/12stable
Josh EknessMRMR4.8216.815.10.891/2/2stable
Tyler ZuberMRSU5.3424.06.40.871/10/5stable
Bradley BlalockunknownLR4.2623.17.7—0/0/0—
Jack RalstonunknownMR5.2926.312.3—0/3/0—

SD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Mason MillerCLOSERCL0.9648.49.31.0437/0/34stable
Adrian MorejonSETUPSU2.3230.27.21.163/26/6stable
Kyle HartSETUPMR3.5122.08.51.400/8/5stable
Bradgley RodriguezOPENERSU2.8626.46.41.092/15/5stable
Wandy PeraltaOPENERMR3.9115.67.51.170/4/14stable
David MorganMRMR3.9023.312.31.220/3/5stable
Yuki MatsuiMRMR4.1926.713.81.351/9/5ramping down
Randy VásquezSPMR4.3614.96.64.830/2/0ramping down
Griffin CanningSPLR4.6722.610.34.240/1/0ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
13
6 MIA · 7 SD
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

MIA

6 R

10H · 2HR · 9BB · 14K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.404 · SLGe 0.460 · K% 29.8

Their pitching

9.3 IP · 6 ER · 11 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

SD

7 R

11H · 2HR · 5BB · 11K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.378 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 24.4

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 6 ER · 14 K · relief 7.0 IP · 7 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights
  • Otto Lopez (SS) · 1-4 | HR, 2 BB, KHR
  • Griffin Conine (PH) · 1-1 | HR, RBI, RHR
  • Jakob Marsee (CF) · 3-4 | BB, 2 R3 H
tough nights
  • Javier Sanoja (3B) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
  • Xavier Edwards (2B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

SD · standout lines

big nights
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 1-4 | HR, HBP, KHR
  • Ty France (1B) · 3-5 | 2B, RBI, R3 H · 4 TB
  • Samad Taylor (LF) · 1-2 | HR, BB, KHR
tough nights
  • Freddy Fermin (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks