Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 823003past slate · free
refreshed 143h 39m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Busch Stadium
gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
94°F
humidity 36%
wind
2 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
overcast
park
STL
open · HP→CF 4°
wind impact on total
-0.04 R/Gnone in
In wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Andrew AlvarezLHP · WSH
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL
xERA 2026
4.19
5.27
xwOBA 2026
0.315
0.349
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.024
-0.034
xERA 2025
2.87
4.67
xwOBA 2025
0.265
0.333
Outs/TB 25-26
2.65
1.85
FIP 25-26
3.28
4.21
kwERA 25-26
3.98
4.21
K% 25-26
22.7%
16.1%
BB% 25-26
10.9%
6.2%
IP 25+26 combined
125.3
255.7
ERA actual 2026
3.35
3.83
ERA (L4)
2.45
5.56
WHIP (L4)
1.05
1.46
K% (L4)
28.4%
17.0%
BB% (L4)
12.5%
9.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.50
5.67
L4 window
08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/26→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
92 (−4)
83 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.04 (−0.02)
4.60 (+0.04)
Arsenal RV/100
0.53
0.13
away arsenal — WSH
RV/100 0.53
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.220
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.374
Slider—-0.50xwOBA 0.367
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.397
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.197
home arsenal — STL
RV/100 0.13
4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.384
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.315
Sinker—+2.40xwOBA 0.308
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.291
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.396
Sweeper—-1.80xwOBA 0.410
Slider—-1.40xwOBA 0.422
away · WSH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.859
Σ match
3.232
Σ FRV
-7.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
James Wood
0.412
0.464
-7.9
2
LF
Daylen Lile
0.326
0.376
+2.4
3
DH
Abimelec Ortiz
0.282
0.328
-0.3
4
2B
CJ Abrams
0.329
0.374
-12.5
5
CF
Dylan Crews
0.313
0.338
+1.7
6
3B
Jorbit Vivas
0.293
0.329
+3.5
7
1B
Andrés Chaparro
0.347
0.397
-3.4
8
C
Keibert Ruiz
0.289
0.326
+1.0
9
SS
Nasim Nuñez
0.268
0.301
+8.5
home · STL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.797
Σ match
2.828
Σ FRV
+10.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
José Fermín
0.291
0.301
-2.2
2
DH
Iván Herrera
0.331
0.341
-4.5
3
RF
Jordan Walker
0.344
0.344
-8.0
4
1B
Leo Bernal
0.385
0.356
+0.8
5
2B
Thomas Saggese
0.317
0.319
+0.1
6
SS
Masyn Winn
0.298
0.304
+16.4
7
CF
Nathan Church
0.290
0.294
+1.2
8
C
Pedro Pagés
0.267
0.282
+4.8
9
LF
Victor Scott II
0.274
0.287
+1.9
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Keibert Ruiz
FRV+1.0
framing+2.8
blocking+0.2
throwing-2.0
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Pedro Pagés
FRV+4.8
framing+2.7
blocking-0.1
throwing+2.1
WSH · Andrew Alvarez
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs LAA · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
92(-4)
92
Location+
100
93(-7)
98
Pitching+
100
85(-15)
96
botStf
56
51(-5)
55
botCmd
49
48(-1)
49
botOvr
52
50(-2)
51
SIERA
4.05
4.16(+0.11)
4.04
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.81
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
STL · Michael McGreevy
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs CWS · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
81
82(+0)
83
Location+
110
113(+3)
104
Pitching+
94
102(+7)
91
botStf
46
50(+3)
49
botCmd
56
59(+3)
54
botOvr
51
53(+2)
51
SIERA
4.55
3.90(-0.65)
4.60
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.17
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.34–0.58]
0.109 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Jared Simpson (7.20)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.