Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 822921past slate · free
refreshed 146h 31m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
86°F
humidity 63%
wind
12 mph
in from CF
precip
18%
clear
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.44 R/Gmoderate in
Moderate wind in: -0.44 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_
opener / bulk pattern
BOS: Brayan Bello opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Brayan BelloRHP · BOS
Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB
xERA 2026
5.27
3.85
xwOBA 2026
0.349
0.303
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.021
0.023
xERA 2025
4.48
3.43
xwOBA 2025
0.327
0.289
Outs/TB 25-26
2.12
2.20
FIP 25-26
4.17
3.99
kwERA 25-26
4.27
3.46
K% 25-26
17.5%
25.0%
BB% 25-26
8.1%
8.8%
IP 25+26 combined
271.0
334.7
ERA actual 2026
4.74
4.67
ERA (L4)
5.14
0.78
WHIP (L4)
1.50
0.61
K% (L4)
17.2%
20.2%
BB% (L4)
7.8%
4.8%
IP/gm (L4)
3.50
5.75
L4 window
08/29→09/15 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
08/26→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
91 (−2)
99 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.19 (+1.08)
4.58 (+0.09)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.01
-0.05
away arsenal · BULK Brayan Bello — BOS
RV/100 -0.01
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.370
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.273
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.455
Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.186
4-Seam Fastball—-3.90xwOBA 0.496
Curveball—-1.90xwOBA 0.378
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 -0.05
4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.339
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.268
Curveball—+0.10xwOBA 0.236
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.243
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.450
away · BOS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.858
Σ match
2.816
Σ FRV
+29.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Roman Anthony
0.351
0.362
-0.1
2
DH
Mickey Gasper
0.366
0.400
-1.9
3
C
Adley Rutschman
0.330
0.314
+11.6
4
RF
Wilyer Abreu
0.350
0.322
+4.7
5
1B
Nick Sogard
0.311
0.307
+2.7
6
SS
Trevor Story
0.254
0.240
-1.2
7
3B
Caleb Durbin
0.294
0.293
+5.5
8
CF
Jarren Duran
0.296
0.283
+4.4
9
2B
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
0.306
0.297
+4.2
home · TB vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.761
Σ match
3.105
Σ FRV
+9.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Jake Fraley
0.278
0.306
-1.0
2
1B
Jonathan Aranda
0.346
0.395
-0.9
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.364
0.406
-7.9
4
C
Liam Hicks
0.318
0.360
+2.8
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.264
0.285
+3.9
6
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.334
0.378
+9.2
7
2B
Richie Palacios
0.310
0.341
-4.0
8
CF
Cedric Mullins
0.264
0.303
+9.4
9
SS
Jorge Mateo
0.283
0.332
-1.5
defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)
Adley Rutschman
FRV+11.6
framing+6.6
blocking+0.9
throwing+4.1
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Liam Hicks
FRV+2.8
framing+0.8
blocking-0.8
throwing+1.8
BOS · Brayan Bello
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs Texas Rangers · 1.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
93
107(+14)
91
Location+
107
122(+15)
103
Pitching+
100
122(+21)
95
botStf
51
61(+10)
50
botCmd
56
58(+2)
53
botOvr
54
61(+8)
51
SIERA
4.11
0.35(-3.76)
5.19
Last 3 starts: 2026-05-17 → 2026-09-07. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.79
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Freddy Peralta
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs HOU · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
97(+1)
99
Location+
106
108(+2)
117
Pitching+
103
113(+11)
117
botStf
55
60(+6)
58
botCmd
51
49(-2)
53
botOvr
52
52(-0)
57
SIERA
4.50
5.83(+1.33)
4.58
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.35
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.33–0.46]
0.093 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.25)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.