Saturday · September 19, 2026·full·gamePk 822843past slate · free
refreshed 143h 39m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Globe Life Field
gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
94°F
humidity 37%
wind
9 mph
out to CF
precip
0%
clear
park
TEX
retractable · HP→CF 7°
wind impact on total
+0.02 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
José SorianoRHP · TOR
Cal QuantrillRHP · TEX
xERA 2026
4.40
3.90
xwOBA 2026
0.322
0.305
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.027
-0.028
xERA 2025
4.04
5.77
xwOBA 2025
0.312
0.365
Outs/TB 25-26
2.35
1.85
FIP 25-26
3.78
4.59
kwERA 25-26
4.05
4.06
K% 25-26
21.8%
17.5%
BB% 25-26
10.5%
6.3%
IP 25+26 combined
338.3
226.3
ERA actual 2026
3.56
2.90
ERA (L4)
4.32
2.88
WHIP (L4)
1.16
0.76
K% (L4)
15.5%
22.8%
BB% (L4)
6.8%
3.3%
IP/gm (L4)
6.25
6.25
L4 window
08/29→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/29→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (−2)
88 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.95 (−0.28)
4.18 (−0.31)
Arsenal RV/100
0.62
0.90
away arsenal — TOR
RV/100 0.62
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.368
Curveball—+1.40xwOBA 0.273
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.377
Split-Finger—+1.40xwOBA 0.250
Slider—+0.20xwOBA 0.252
home arsenal — TEX
RV/100 0.90
Sinker—+2.10xwOBA 0.286
4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.291
Split-Finger—+0.20xwOBA 0.269
Cutter—-1.50xwOBA 0.430
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.246
Slider—+3.80xwOBA 0.237
away · TOR vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.722
Σ match
2.744
Σ FRV
+40.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Brett Bateman
0.301
0.308
+2.9
2
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.336
0.324
+5.5
3
C
Alejandro Kirk
0.310
0.315
+9.9
4
DH
George Springer
0.306
0.327
-0.3
5
RF
Nathan Lukes
0.285
0.275
+8.0
6
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.330
0.320
-2.9
7
2B
Josh Smith
0.284
0.294
-2.6
8
SS
Andrés Giménez
0.272
0.273
+15.9
9
LF
Myles Straw
0.298
0.308
+4.2
home · TEX vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.792
Σ match
2.893
Σ FRV
+16.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Ezequiel Duran
0.305
0.314
+13.6
2
DH
Corey Seager
0.354
0.342
-0.8
3
3B
Josh Jung
0.348
0.349
-4.6
4
RF
Brandon Nimmo
0.343
0.346
-5.5
5
LF
Wyatt Langford
0.323
0.340
+3.3
6
1B
Jake Burger
0.319
0.340
+3.7
7
2B
Nicky Lopez
0.263
0.277
+1.3
8
C
Danny Jansen
0.261
0.285
-3.3
9
CF
Evan Carter
0.276
0.299
+8.6
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Alejandro Kirk
FRV+9.9
framing+7.2
blocking+3.8
throwing-1.0
defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)
Danny Jansen
FRV-3.3
framing-4.4
blocking+1.8
throwing-0.8
TOR · José Soriano
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs DET · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
96(-1)
96
Location+
105
121(+15)
118
Pitching+
105
120(+15)
112
botStf
55
54(-2)
52
botCmd
52
57(+5)
57
botOvr
55
58(+3)
58
SIERA
4.23
3.26(-0.97)
3.95
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.41
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TEX · Cal Quantrill
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs AZ · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
89
85(-4)
88
Location+
110
108(-2)
111
Pitching+
99
91(-7)
99
botStf
45
43(-2)
45
botCmd
56
63(+7)
60
botOvr
53
56(+4)
54
SIERA
4.49
3.65(-0.84)
4.18
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.64
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.68)
TOR
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Louis Varland
CLOSER
CL
1.80
31.7
7.3
1.11
34/5/31
stable
Paul Sewald
CLOSER
MR
5.33
24.8
5.8
0.91
24/2/33
stable
Tyler Rogers
SETUP
SU
3.22
13.6
7.9
0.97
4/32/6
stable
Mason Fluharty
OPENER
MR
3.57
25.7
10.3
0.76
1/17/5
stable
Braydon Fisher
OPENER
MR
4.34
23.9
13.8
1.05
1/13/7
stable
Spencer Miles
SWING
SU
2.72
23.5
6.5
2.37
2/4/6
ramping up
Joe Mantiply
MR
MR
3.57
19.8
4.5
1.04
0/1/4
ramping down
Brendon Little
MOP_UP
MR
5.10
33.9
19.4
0.95
0/3/2
ramping up
Brendan Cellucci
unknown
MR
0.42
44.4
0.0
—
0/0/0
—
José Rodríguez
unknown
MR
0.69
33.3
0.0
—
0/0/0
—
Spencer Arrighetti
SP
LR
5.34
21.6
12.9
5.44
0/0/0
ramping down
TEX
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jacob Latz
CLOSER
CL
2.75
29.8
8.5
1.28
30/3/26
stable
Jakob Junis
SETUP
MR
3.77
16.8
6.4
1.12
6/18/9
stable
Chase Silseth
SETUP
SU
3.85
26.9
13.4
0.85
0/17/7
stable
Tyler Alexander
OPENER
MR
3.02
20.0
6.9
0.95
4/13/11
stable
Robert Garcia
MR
SU
3.25
22.0
16.0
0.89
0/4/1
stable
Trevor Williams
unknown
MR
3.55
27.3
8.2
—
0/1/0
—
Jordan Montgomery
unknown
LR
4.54
18.7
5.3
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.