Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYY @ AZ

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 825032past slate · free

refreshed 167h 1m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Chase Field

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

94°F

humidity 26%

wind

5 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

retractable · HP→CF 23°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Gerrit ColeRHP · NYY	Eduardo RodriguezLHP · AZ
xERA 2026	3.85	4.24
xwOBA 2026	0.303	0.317
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.004	-0.022
xERA 2025	—	4.51
xwOBA 2025	—	0.328
Outs/TB 25-26	1.79	1.89
FIP 25-26	3.94	4.12
kwERA 25-26	3.00	4.06
K% 25-26	24.6%	19.4%
BB% 25-26	4.6%	8.2%
IP 25+26 combined	115.3	332.7
ERA actual 2026	3.67	2.62
ERA (L4)	5.96	2.70
WHIP (L4)	1.37	1.29
K% (L4)	17.2%	24.8%
BB% (L4)	2.0%	8.9%
IP/gm (L4)	5.67	5.83
L4 window	08/27→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/26→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.36	0.71

away arsenal — NYY

RV/100 0.36

4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.290
Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.291
Curveball—-1.90xwOBA 0.346
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.267
Sinker—-1.70xwOBA 0.543

home arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.71

4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.313
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.277
Cutter—-0.40xwOBA 0.338
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.343
Sinker—-1.90xwOBA 0.415

away · NYY vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.865

Σ match

2.948

Σ FRV

+5.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0.316	0.336	+6.4
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.342	0.342	+9.5
3	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.328	0.339	-5.8
4	DH	Ben Rice	0.376	0.398	-4.2
5	3B	Amed Rosario	0.312	0.296	-7.6
6	CF	Spencer Jones	0.329	0.343	-3.3
7	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.276	0.287	-1.7
8	C	Austin Wells	0.287	0.304	+7.0
9	2B	Anthony Volpe	0.299	0.304	+5.3

home · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.921

Σ match

2.824

Σ FRV

+25.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.346	0.351	+1.7
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.347	0.335	+4.7
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.363	0.341	+8.0
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.327	0.322	+11.8
5	1B	Pavin Smith	0.271	0.262	+1.4
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.293	0.293	+2.2
7	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.341	0.328	+5.3
8	DH	Jesús Sánchez	0.319	0.306	-8.9
9	CF	Tim Tawa	0.314	0.286	-0.7

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+7.0
framing+6.4
blocking+2.1
throwing-1.5

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+8.0
framing+5.2
blocking+1.1
throwing+1.7

NYY · Gerrit Cole

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs NYM · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 104 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 121 · botStf 53 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 65 · SIERA 7.20

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 105 · Location+ 110 · Pitching+ 112 · botStf 52 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 3.75

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs TEX · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 104 · Pitching+ 97 · botStf 47 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 4.19

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 99 · Location+ 99 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 47 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 5.75

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.26–0.66]

0.108 R/PA · 0.153 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.29)

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Dennis Santana (4.11)

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.55	27.6	6.7	1.10	34/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.24	30.2	7.7	1.01	0/29/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.73	17.0	11.3	0.91	2/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	6.04	10.8	5.6	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.80	20.6	10.0	1.53	1/11/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.69	16.7	9.0	1.59	3/2/14	stable
Clarke Schmidt	unknown	MR	-2.91	50.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	4.03	26.1	13.0	—	0/2/0	—
Luis Gil	SP	MR	7.42	13.2	12.3	4.83	0/0/0	ramping up

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.31	31.6	5.7	0.83	5/16/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.71	28.5	8.9	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.78	19.4	4.5	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	SU	3.25	25.7	6.2	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.71	16.0	5.2	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	4.93	20.7	9.9	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	2.57	32.5	15.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 NYY · 2 AZ

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYY

9 R

8H · 2HR · 6BB · 7K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.457 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

AZ

2 R

7H · 1HR · 1BB · 11K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 31.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 7 K · relief 3.7 IP · 3 arms

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Ben Rice (DH) · 2-3 | HR, 3B, 2 BBHR · 7 TB
George Lombard Jr. (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Spencer Jones (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Anthony Volpe (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Corbin Carroll (RF) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Lars Nootbaar (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Ketel Marte (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Gabriel Moreno (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4