Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 824790past slate · free
refreshed 168h 39m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
80°F
humidity 56%
wind
5 mph
in from RF
precip
0%
partly cloudy
park
BAL
open · HP→CF 28°
wind impact on total
-0.13 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Dustin MayRHP · MIL
Cade PovichLHP · BAL
xERA 2026
4.24
4.67
xwOBA 2026
0.317
0.331
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.008
0.014
xERA 2025
5.20
5.44
xwOBA 2025
0.349
0.356
Outs/TB 25-26
1.95
1.68
FIP 25-26
4.13
4.31
kwERA 25-26
3.81
3.75
K% 25-26
21.9%
22.7%
BB% 25-26
8.7%
8.9%
IP 25+26 combined
270.7
145.7
ERA actual 2026
4.49
4.05
ERA (L4)
3.77
2.57
WHIP (L4)
1.19
1.57
K% (L4)
24.6%
21.7%
BB% (L4)
6.6%
10.0%
IP/gm (L4)
3.58
4.67
L4 window
08/26→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/04→08/31 (3 st) · 3/3 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
104 (+4)
95 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.65 (−0.71)
4.63 (−0.53)
Arsenal RV/100
0.08
-0.29
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 0.08
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.317
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.319
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.338
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.299
Curveball—-1.00xwOBA 0.267
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.363
home arsenal — BAL
RV/100 -0.29
4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.333
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.237
Slider—-3.40xwOBA 0.408
Changeup—-2.30xwOBA 0.300
Sinker—-5.50xwOBA 0.440
away · MIL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.936
Σ match
3.060
Σ FRV
+27.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.338
0.352
+7.7
2
2B
Brice Turang
0.347
0.351
+12.6
3
C
William Contreras
0.335
0.338
-2.8
4
1B
Andrew Vaughn
0.332
0.371
-6.4
5
DH
Christian Yelich
0.312
0.316
+0.0
6
3B
Joey Ortiz
0.301
0.309
+10.9
7
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.357
0.362
+3.6
8
RF
Luis Lara
0.298
0.329
+0.7
9
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.316
0.332
+0.9
home · BAL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.877
Σ match
2.969
Σ FRV
-8.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Dylan Beavers
0.296
0.294
-8.2
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.394
0.405
-2.8
3
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.318
0.326
+1.5
4
3B
Coby Mayo
0.328
0.327
-2.1
5
C
Samuel Basallo
0.324
0.335
-3.2
6
DH
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.342
0.350
+1.0
7
CF
Colton Cowser
0.315
0.350
+8.9
8
2B
Jeremiah Jackson
0.291
0.305
-1.5
9
RF
Leody Taveras
0.269
0.277
-2.2
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
William Contreras
FRV-2.8
framing-5.2
blocking-1.0
throwing+3.4
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Samuel Basallo
FRV-3.2
framing-5.5
blocking+0.8
throwing+2.0
MIL · Dustin May
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs CIN · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
107(+6)
104
Location+
103
121(+18)
119
Pitching+
105
124(+20)
123
botStf
56
58(+1)
57
botCmd
53
62(+9)
59
botOvr
56
62(+5)
62
SIERA
4.36
3.22(-1.14)
3.65
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.73
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BAL · Cade Povich
Last outing 2026-08-31 vs COL · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
100
93(-8)
95
Location+
90
79(-11)
91
Pitching+
91
68(-23)
86
botStf
49
44(-5)
46
botCmd
51
38(-13)
46
botOvr
50
40(-11)
45
SIERA
5.16
4.94(-0.21)
4.63
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-04 → 2026-08-31. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.52
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.44]
0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.06)
BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.42]
0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.07)
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.89
28.6
6.6
0.97
28/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.85
25.7
8.7
0.99
6/21/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.22
30.2
11.2
1.23
2/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.23
22.1
8.1
0.98
0/21/4
stable
Shane Drohan
SWING
MR
3.78
23.6
8.1
3.80
1/3/3
ramping up
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
3.91
21.7
9.9
2.46
5/10/5
ramping down
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.71
19.6
8.4
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
4.02
26.8
15.0
1.29
0/5/5
stable
BAL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Grant Wolfram
SETUP
MR
2.68
27.2
7.0
0.80
1/13/3
stable
Yennier Cano
SETUP
SU
2.75
21.6
5.7
0.74
3/13/6
stable
Anthony Nunez
SETUP
MR
3.57
26.4
10.7
1.12
3/7/7
stable
Andrew Kittredge
SETUP
CL
3.84
18.3
5.3
0.87
10/9/11
stable
Rico Garcia
SETUP
CL
3.96
25.6
8.3
0.93
9/18/16
stable
Josh Walker
MR
MR
3.13
23.0
7.1
1.20
1/4/3
ramping down
Alex Hoppe
MR
MR
3.43
24.0
10.4
1.14
1/5/13
stable
Cam Sanders
MR
MR
3.53
28.2
15.3
1.00
3/1/5
stable
Luis De León
unknown
MR
4.32
18.5
7.4
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
11
6 MIL · 5 BAL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
MIL
6 R
10H · 1HR · 6BB · 10K · 21LOB
OBPe 0.348 · SLGe 0.359 · K% 21.7
Their pitching
10.0 IP · 5 ER · 13 K · relief 7.7 IP · 7 arms
BAL
5 R
12H · 1HR · 3BB · 13K · 23LOB
OBPe 0.348 · SLGe 0.450 · K% 28.3
Their pitching
10.0 IP · 5 ER · 10 K · relief 6.3 IP · 8 arms
MIL · standout lines
big nights
Jackson Chourio (LF) · 2-5 | HR, BB, KHR
tough nights
Garrett Mitchell (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
BAL · standout lines
big nights
Pete Alonso (1B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 KHR
Gunnar Henderson (SS) · 3-5 | K, R3 H
Coby Mayo (3B) · 3-4 | 3 2B, BB, R3 H · 6 TB
tough nights
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (DH) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K