DET @ CWS

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 824547past slate · free
refreshed 168h 35m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rate Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
65°F
humidity 81%
wind
6 mph
in from LF
precip
5%
overcast
park
CWS
open · HP→CF 38°
CFHP1B3BIN
wind impact on total
-0.11 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricAndrew SearsLHP · DETDavid SandlinRHP · CWS
xERA 20263.093.74
xwOBA 20260.2730.299
wOBA−xwOBA 20260.0890.007
xERA 2025——
xwOBA 2025——
Outs/TB 25-261.522.02
FIP 25-264.175.03
kwERA 25-263.923.78
K% 25-2617.8%23.0%
BB% 25-265.5%9.5%
IP 25+26 combined16.730.3
ERA actual 20265.405.64
ERA (L4)5.403.71
WHIP (L4)1.381.00
K% (L4)17.8%22.1%
BB% (L4)5.5%7.4%
IP/gm (L4)4.175.67
L4 window08/23→09/12 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified06/26→09/13 (3 outs) · 3/3 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)102 (−1)97 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)4.82 (−0.17)3.63 (−0.83)
Arsenal RV/100-0.570.43

away arsenal — DET

RV/100 -0.57
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.285
  • Slider—-2.10xwOBA 0.324
  • Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.213
  • Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.205

home arsenal — CWS

RV/100 0.43
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.345
  • Curveball—+1.10xwOBA 0.242
  • Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.434
  • Sinker—+2.20xwOBA 0.188
  • Changeup—+2.30xwOBA 0.193

away · DET vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.934
Σ match
2.938
Σ FRV
-8.7
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1SSKevin McGonigle0.3570.379-0.8
22BGleyber Torres0.3250.313-1.1
3DHColt Keith0.3370.349-1.7
4LFRiley Greene0.3720.396-5.9
51BSpencer Torkelson0.3140.307-6.5
6RFZach McKinstry0.2840.275+11.1
7CFMax Clark0.3100.300+2.6
8CEduardo Valencia0.3380.323+1.8
93BHao-Yu Lee0.2970.297-8.1

home · CWS vs LHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.736
Σ match
2.453
Σ FRV
+19.8
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
13BMiguel Vargas0.3780.327-4.1
2DHTommy Pham0.2130.277-0.1
3LFRandal Grichuk0.3340.283-2.2
41BMunetaka Murakami0.3420.307-2.1
52BChase Meidroth0.2950.271+10.8
6CKyle Teel0.3200.260-1.4
7CFBrenton Doyle0.2360.207-1.5
8SSColson Montgomery0.3020.249+10.3
9RFTristan Peters0.3160.271+10.3

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Eduardo Valencia
  • FRV+1.8
  • framing+1.3
  • blocking+0.6
  • throwing-0.1

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Kyle Teel
  • FRV-1.4
  • framing-1.8
  • blocking-0.7
  • throwing+1.1

DET · Andrew Sears

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs COL · 4.1 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+10396(-7)102
Location+9696(-0)98
Pitching+10091(-8)100
botStf4946(-3)49
botCmd5349(-4)55
botOvr5049(-1)51
SIERA4.994.15(-0.84)4.82

Last 3 outings: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.92

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CWS · David Sandlin

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs STL · 5.2 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+9999(+0)97
Location+9599(+4)97
Pitching+9596(+1)94
botStf5147(-4)50
botCmd4951(+3)49
botOvr4952(+2)49
SIERA4.462.47(-1.99)3.63

Last 3 outings: 2026-06-26 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.45

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.35–0.50]
0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Jacob Waguespack (4.52)
CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.48]
0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Noah Schultz (4.27)

DET

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Kenley JansenCLOSERCL4.6828.113.50.8920/1/22stable
Tyler KinleySETUPSU5.1421.511.90.871/14/9stable
Ty MaddenBULKLR3.4624.67.82.500/1/3ramping down
Tyler HoltonOPENERSU3.9718.65.71.062/14/8stable
Drew SommersMRMR2.5634.28.40.630/13/1stable
Brant HurterMRMR3.4217.610.11.210/1/4ramping up
Jacob WaguespackMRMR4.8417.29.81.300/5/4stable
Beau BrieskeMRMR5.1621.98.21.170/1/6stable

CWS

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Sean NewcombSETUPMR3.0922.29.11.514/11/6ramping up
Grant TaylorOPENERCL2.8231.79.21.339/10/11stable
Bryan HudsonOPENERCL3.0422.36.40.988/10/8stable
Chris MurphyOPENERMR4.4423.411.01.051/1/6stable
Jordan HicksMRMR3.7129.315.10.911/9/6stable
Trevor RichardsMRMR4.1821.87.51.461/1/16stable
Hagen SmithunknownSU2.2937.413.2—0/1/0—
Noah SchultzSPMR4.8119.910.44.560/0/0ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
19
11 DET · 8 CWS
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

DET

11 R

16H · 2HR · 5BB · 10K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.478 · SLGe 0.675 · K% 21.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 8.3 IP · 6 arms

CWS

8 R

7H · 1HR · 4BB · 10K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.300 · SLGe 0.371 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 11 ER · 10 K · relief 5.0 IP · 7 arms

DET · standout lines

big nights
  • Kevin McGonigle (3B) · 2-5 | 3B, BB, 4 RBI4 TB · 4 RBI
  • Riley Greene (LF) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 2 KHR
  • Hao-Yu Lee (2B) · 4-5 | HR, 2B, 3 RBIHR · 4 H · 8 TB

CWS · standout lines

big nights
  • Miguel Vargas (3B) · 2-5 | HR, 2B, KHR
tough nights
  • Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks