Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 824463past slate · free
refreshed 168h 38m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Great American Ball Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
79°F
humidity 72%
wind
10 mph
in from CF
precip
8%
clear
park
CIN
open · HP→CF 24°
wind impact on total
-0.29 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.29 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Clay HolmesRHP · CHC
Chase BurnsRHP · CIN
xERA 2026
3.96
3.18
xwOBA 2026
0.307
0.277
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.041
0.008
xERA 2025
4.33
3.46
xwOBA 2025
0.322
0.290
Outs/TB 25-26
2.44
2.20
FIP 25-26
3.91
3.05
kwERA 25-26
4.29
2.75
K% 25-26
18.5%
30.8%
BB% 25-26
9.2%
8.7%
IP 25+26 combined
257.3
194.7
ERA actual 2026
2.85
2.80
ERA (L4)
3.91
5.28
WHIP (L4)
1.26
1.50
K% (L4)
21.4%
32.8%
BB% (L4)
11.2%
9.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
3.83
L4 window
08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/24→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
88 (−9)
113 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.19 (+0.22)
3.12 (−0.49)
Arsenal RV/100
1.12
0.62
away arsenal — CHC
RV/100 1.12
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.367
Sweeper—+1.30xwOBA 0.234
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.207
Cutter—-1.10xwOBA 0.363
Curveball—+2.40xwOBA 0.182
home arsenal — CIN
RV/100 0.62
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.331
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.198
Changeup—-5.00xwOBA 0.407
away · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.954
Σ match
2.658
Σ FRV
+67.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.378
0.343
+27.2
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.339
0.320
+7.8
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.330
0.280
+2.5
4
3B
Alex Bregman
0.321
0.282
+6.0
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.317
0.276
+5.4
6
2B
Nico Hoerner
0.322
0.283
+8.9
7
DH
Michael Conforto
0.328
0.300
-1.8
8
C
Carson Kelly
0.313
0.287
+0.6
9
SS
Dansby Swanson
0.306
0.289
+11.3
home · CIN vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.674
Σ match
2.779
Σ FRV
-7.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Carlos Jorge
0.208
0.272
+0.5
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.375
0.351
+4.9
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.349
0.358
-3.9
4
DH
Tyler Stephenson
0.332
0.362
-7.4
5
LF
JJ Bleday
0.339
0.353
-1.8
6
3B
Eugenio Suárez
0.298
0.286
-5.9
7
RF
Héctor Rodríguez
0.256
0.284
-0.2
8
C
Jose Trevino
0.217
0.213
+3.3
9
2B
Matt McLain
0.300
0.301
+3.0
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carson Kelly
FRV+0.6
framing+1.2
blocking+1.7
throwing-2.3
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Jose Trevino
FRV+3.3
framing+1.8
blocking+1.2
throwing+0.4
CHC · Clay Holmes
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs PIT · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
92(-5)
88
Location+
100
90(-10)
101
Pitching+
97
80(-17)
91
botStf
51
47(-4)
48
botCmd
51
48(-2)
50
botOvr
54
48(-6)
50
SIERA
3.97
4.79(+0.82)
4.19
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.13
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CIN · Chase Burns
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs MIL · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
112
112(-1)
113
Location+
102
78(-24)
99
Pitching+
115
95(-19)
114
botStf
60
60(-1)
60
botCmd
53
43(-10)
53
botOvr
59
48(-11)
58
SIERA
3.61
4.68(+1.07)
3.12
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.09
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.40–0.50]
0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Javier Assad (4.30)
CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.51]
0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.90)
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
4.39
23.9
9.2
0.88
3/1/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.88
31.1
13.3
1.15
6/13/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
CL
4.17
25.1
8.9
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.89
29.1
9.0
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
5.06
16.3
7.2
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
4.03
21.0
11.1
1.12
2/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.54
18.9
7.0
4.67
2/0/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.86
17.4
8.2
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
Edward Cabrera
SP
MR
5.30
20.6
10.0
5.17
0/0/0
ramping down
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.32
25.8
6.1
0.91
23/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.66
27.4
16.3
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.79
23.8
12.9
0.95
2/20/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.93
18.7
9.1
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.05
18.8
14.7
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.50
31.3
12.9
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.83
24.4
7.4
1.00
1/9/6
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.