Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 824383free Saturday
refreshed 194h 9m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Progressive Field
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
70°F
humidity 55%
wind
7 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
overcast
park
CLE
open · HP→CF 25°
wind impact on total
-0.21 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.21 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_
opener / bulk pattern
CLE: Daniel Espino opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Mason BarnettRHP · ATH
Daniel EspinoRHP · CLE
xERA 2026
5.30
2.77
xwOBA 2026
0.350
0.259
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.038
0.035
xERA 2025
3.90
—
xwOBA 2025
0.307
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.51
2.06
FIP 25-26
6.23
2.77
kwERA 25-26
4.53
1.48
K% 25-26
19.4%
40.4%
BB% 25-26
12.1%
7.7%
IP 25+26 combined
63.0
12.3
ERA actual 2026
7.08
2.92
ERA (L4)
11.30
2.08
WHIP (L4)
2.23
1.15
K% (L4)
14.9%
33.3%
BB% (L4)
14.9%
0.0%
IP/gm (L4)
3.58
1.08
L4 window
07/25→08/17 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
09/07→09/14 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
90 (−7)
107 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
6.75 (+1.50)
2.41 (−0.39)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.70
0.49
away arsenal — ATH
RV/100 -1.70
4-Seam Fastball—-2.00xwOBA 0.387
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.314
Sweeper—-3.20xwOBA 0.327
Curveball—-3.70xwOBA 0.340
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.191
home arsenal · BULK Daniel Espino — CLE
RV/100 0.49
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.282
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.248
away · ATH vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.782
Σ match
2.511
Σ FRV
-21.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Henry Bolte
0.318
0.286
+3.2
2
DH
Shea Langeliers
0.362
0.308
-3.6
3
RF
Lawrence Butler
0.323
0.304
-10.1
4
LF
Zack Gelof
0.312
0.273
+0.5
5
1B
Jeff McNeil
0.302
0.270
-2.0
6
3B
Tommy White
0.292
0.295
-4.8
7
C
Jonah Heim
0.287
0.244
-6.2
8
2B
Michael Stefanic
0.344
0.307
-1.0
9
SS
Alika Williams
0.242
0.224
+2.8
home · CLE vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.854
Σ match
3.164
Σ FRV
+12.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Steven Kwan
0.324
0.349
+7.0
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.328
0.373
+1.6
3
RF
Chase DeLauter
0.344
0.387
+1.7
4
DH
Jo Adell
0.328
0.354
-9.3
5
2B
Travis Bazzana
0.303
0.338
-3.0
6
1B
Nathaniel Lowe
0.337
0.358
-3.6
7
C
Patrick Bailey
0.307
0.352
+5.7
8
CF
Petey Halpin
0.290
0.318
+2.1
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.293
0.334
+10.7
defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)
Jonah Heim
FRV-6.2
framing-1.2
blocking-2.3
throwing-1.6
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Patrick Bailey
FRV+5.7
framing+4.7
blocking-1.7
throwing+2.7
ATH · Mason Barnett
Last outing 2026-08-17 vs KC · 2.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
90(-7)
90
Location+
103
88(-15)
96
Pitching+
99
77(-22)
89
botStf
49
47(-1)
49
botCmd
55
40(-15)
48
botOvr
54
40(-14)
48
SIERA
5.26
7.54(+2.28)
6.75
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-06 → 2026-08-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.50
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CLE · Daniel Espino
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs Chicago White Sox · 0.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
109
115(+6)
107
Location+
101
96(-6)
99
Pitching+
110
100(-10)
102
botStf
57
55(-2)
54
botCmd
54
48(-5)
51
botOvr
58
52(-7)
53
SIERA
2.81
1.59(-1.22)
2.41
Last 3 outings: 2026-09-09 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.45
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.51]
0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Yunior Tur (5.04)
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.49]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.06)
ATH
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Luis Medina
SETUP
SU
3.56
29.7
12.2
1.38
0/12/10
stable
Hogan Harris
SETUP
CL
4.11
28.4
13.4
0.93
15/13/13
stable
Drew Rom
MR
MR
3.25
26.7
11.7
1.13
0/3/1
stable
Geoff Hartlieb
MR
MR
3.69
16.0
10.0
2.13
0/2/3
ramping down
Seth Johnson
MR
LR
3.93
27.1
13.2
1.13
0/0/4
stable
Elvis Alvarado
MR
CL
4.61
27.9
11.1
1.08
6/9/11
stable
Chris Roycroft
MR
MR
6.41
14.5
9.7
1.28
1/1/6
ramping up
Yunior Tur
MR
MR
8.99
18.2
15.2
2.00
0/0/0
insufficient data
Scott Blewett
unknown
MR
2.84
20.1
8.2
—
0/2/0
—
CLE
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Cade Smith
CLOSER
CL
2.32
35.3
7.9
1.05
37/0/37
stable
Erik Sabrowski
SETUP
SU
2.91
36.6
15.2
0.78
1/25/2
stable
Matt Festa
SETUP
MR
3.32
25.0
6.9
0.97
1/7/13
stable
Hunter Gaddis
SETUP
SU
3.59
22.5
8.9
0.86
1/29/2
stable
Tim Herrin
SETUP
MR
4.14
22.8
11.6
0.79
0/15/5
stable
Daniel Espino
MR
MR
2.77
40.4
7.7
1.00
0/0/1
stable
Craig Yoho
MR
MR
4.63
25.3
10.8
1.33
0/3/5
stable
Connor Brogdon
unknown
MR
6.03
21.4
4.3
—
1/4/0
—
Slade Cecconi
SP
LR
4.61
18.7
7.5
5.21
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.