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today's slate

SEA @ COL

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 824303past slate · free

refreshed 168h 34m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

77°F

humidity 35%

wind

8 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

30%

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Bryan WooRHP · SEA	Gabriel HughesRHP · COL
xERA 2026	3.53	3.77
xwOBA 2026	0.291	0.300
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.015	0.035
xERA 2025	3.07	—
xwOBA 2025	0.274	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.27	1.80
FIP 25-26	3.39	4.03
kwERA 25-26	2.89	4.17
K% 25-26	26.0%	19.0%
BB% 25-26	5.1%	8.7%
IP 25+26 combined	349.0	59.3
ERA actual 2026	3.88	6.37
ERA (L4)	2.62	5.94
WHIP (L4)	0.83	1.68
K% (L4)	27.7%	19.2%
BB% (L4)	6.4%	10.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	4.17
L4 window	08/26→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/27→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.87	-0.11

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.87

4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.317
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.322
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.313
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.203
Changeup—+3.90xwOBA 0.191
Curveball—-4.70xwOBA 0.178

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -0.11

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.300
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.395
Curveball—-1.80xwOBA 0.231
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.326
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.364
Slider—+1.10xwOBA 0.134

away · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.882

Σ match

2.840

Σ FRV

-27.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.323	0.334	-8.5
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.346	0.333	-7.2
3	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.353	0.353	-0.0
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.313	0.298	-4.2
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.335	0.330	-0.6
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.313	0.311	+2.2
7	2B	Cole Young	0.314	0.304	-4.2
8	RF	Lazaro Montes	0.346	0.327	-0.1
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.239	0.250	-4.4

home · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.767

Σ match

2.668

Σ FRV

+1.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jake McCarthy	0.326	0.315	-0.8
2	DH	Connor Norby	0.306	0.292	-2.4
3	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.337	0.322	+4.8
4	C	Hunter Goodman	0.321	0.318	-2.0
5	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.311	0.294	+0.2
6	3B	Kyle Karros	0.340	0.329	+0.0
7	RF	Mickey Moniak	0.282	0.274	+0.3
8	2B	Adael Amador	0.264	0.267	+0.5
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.280	0.258	+0.7

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-4.2
framing-3.5
blocking+2.5
throwing-3.1

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-2.0
framing+0.3
blocking-0.8
throwing-1.5

SEA · Bryan Woo

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs ATH · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 111 · Pitching+ 108 · botStf 50 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 62 · SIERA 2.64

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 107 · Location+ 110 · Pitching+ 110 · botStf 53 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 3.04

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Gabriel Hughes

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs DET · 2.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 89 · Location+ 111 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 49 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 2.12

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 79 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 88 · botStf 49 · botCmd 47 · botOvr 48 · SIERA 4.27

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.48]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.60)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.49R / inningband [0.45–0.53]

0.115 R/PA · 0.162 R/out · worst: Zach Agnos (4.69)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.13	37.2	9.8	0.93	27/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.00	18.0	6.6	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.14	22.6	8.5	0.82	1/21/5	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.67	22.9	7.9	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.68	12.7	6.1	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	SU	4.81	24.6	12.7	0.89	12/7/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.49	19.6	7.2	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.06	25.9	8.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.09	23.7	3.4	—	0/0/0	—

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.51	25.4	13.0	0.79	15/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.26	21.6	13.5	0.83	2/13/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	SU	4.37	20.5	13.2	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.62	17.9	6.0	0.86	1/13/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	MR	5.39	19.5	11.3	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.47	14.6	8.7	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	2.93	24.1	14.8	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	4.59	23.2	7.3	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 SEA · 4 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

5 R

9H · 2HR · 2BB · 9K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.559 · K% 23.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 9 K · relief 3.7 IP · 6 arms

COL

4 R

15H · 0HR · 1BB · 9K · 26LOB

OBPe 0.372 · SLGe 0.476 · K% 20.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 9 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

J.P. Crawford (SS) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Randy Arozarena (LF) · 3-4 | 2B, HBP, R3 H · 4 TB
Lazaro Montes (RF) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Cal Raleigh (C) · 0-4 | 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K
Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

COL · standout lines

big nights

Jake McCarthy (LF) · 3-5 | 3B, K, 2 RBI3 H · 5 TB
Connor Norby (DH) · 3-4 | BB, RBI, R3 H
Cole Carrigg (CF) · 3-5 | K, RBI, 2 SB3 H

tough nights

Adael Amador (2B) · 0-40-for-4