Baseball Daily

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today's slate

ATL @ HOU

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 824138free Saturday

refreshed 194h 6m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 58%

wind

7 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Tyler MahleRHP · ATL	Peter LambertRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	4.04	3.69
xwOBA 2026	0.310	0.297
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.002	-0.003
xERA 2025	4.24	—
xwOBA 2025	0.319	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.25	2.38
FIP 25-26	3.72	3.80
kwERA 25-26	3.82	3.75
K% 25-26	21.0%	22.9%
BB% 25-26	7.9%	9.1%
IP 25+26 combined	224.7	145.7
ERA actual 2026	3.91	3.71
ERA (L4)	1.09	3.86
WHIP (L4)	0.97	1.33
K% (L4)	19.6%	20.8%
BB% (L4)	3.1%	7.9%
IP/gm (L4)	6.17	5.83
L4 window	08/23→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/26→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.18	0.20

away arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.18

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.303
Split-Finger—+0.50xwOBA 0.296
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.319
Slider—-4.10xwOBA 0.397

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.20

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.335
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.243
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.279
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.345
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.286
Sweeper—+0.40xwOBA 0.264
Slurve—+1.50xwOBA 0.342

away · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.868

Σ match

2.736

Σ FRV

+14.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.364	0.351	+0.3
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.364	0.329	-5.3
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.352	0.340	+10.6
4	CF	Michael Harris II	0.339	0.330	+11.0
5	SS	Mauricio Dubón	0.305	0.286	+3.3
6	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.282	0.276	-2.9
7	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0.309	0.291	-0.9
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.297	0.281	-0.8
9	C	Sean Murphy	0.256	0.252	-1.3

home · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.747

Σ match

2.866

Σ FRV

-3.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.328	0.367	-2.5
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.444	0.449	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.319	0.324	+1.9
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.271	0.277	-10.2
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.286	0.288	+3.7
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.300	0.299	+6.3
7	RF	Taylor Trammell	0.294	0.322	-1.7
8	LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.271	0.286	-1.9
9	C	Christian Vázquez	0.234	0.254	+3.3

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-1.3
framing-0.9
blocking+0.8
throwing-1.2

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Christian Vázquez

FRV+3.3
framing+5.7
blocking-1.5
throwing-0.9

ATL · Tyler Mahle

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs PHI · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 121 · Pitching+ 114 · botStf 50 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 53 · SIERA 4.85

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 89 · Location+ 123 · Pitching+ 111 · botStf 46 · botCmd 63 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 1.51

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Peter Lambert

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs TB · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 97 · Pitching+ 90 · botStf 47 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 4.37

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 92 · Location+ 90 · Pitching+ 83 · botStf 46 · botCmd 48 · botOvr 43 · SIERA 5.86

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.29–0.41]

0.083 R/PA · 0.117 R/out · worst: Owen Murphy (3.97)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.38–0.47]

0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.29)

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.41	25.2	7.5	1.04	33/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.11	30.0	6.4	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.44	31.5	7.2	1.20	3/17/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.79	26.4	7.9	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.63	20.4	6.9	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	3.09	21.8	9.0	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Owen Murphy	MR	MR	5.53	19.0	7.1	2.22	0/0/2	insufficient data
Ray Kerr	unknown	LR	3.23	19.6	2.0	—	0/1/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.61	34.8	7.0	0.91	26/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.48	30.6	15.7	0.92	8/16/21	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	4.03	21.8	6.8	1.07	5/10/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	4.16	24.1	10.1	1.68	1/11/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.68	17.5	8.0	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Miguel Ullola	MR	MR	5.17	29.4	8.8	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.86	22.7	13.4	0.67	0/10/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.42	28.0	15.5	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 ATL · 2 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATL

6 R

11H · 3HR · 2BB · 10K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.564 · K% 24.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

HOU

2 R

5H · 0HR · 2BB · 12K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.188 · K% 35.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 10 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 1-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Matt Olson (1B) · 3-5 | HR, 2 RBI, 2 RHR · 3 H
Michael Harris II (CF) · 3-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR · 3 H

tough nights

Mike Yastrzemski (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Austin Riley (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Sean Murphy (C) · 0-40-for-4

HOU · standout lines

tough nights

Jeremy Peña (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Daulton Varsho (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Christian Walker (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K