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today's slate

MIN @ LAA

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 823977past slate · free

refreshed 166h 4m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 9:38 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 65%

wind

5 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.15 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.15 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Connor PrielippLHP · MIN	Grayson RodriguezRHP · LAA
xERA 2026	4.10	5.52
xwOBA 2026	0.312	0.356
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.014	0.009
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.91	1.56
FIP 25-26	3.87	4.88
kwERA 25-26	3.51	4.15
K% 25-26	24.0%	20.1%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	113.3	87.0
ERA actual 2026	5.24	6.10
ERA (L4)	8.31	5.14
WHIP (L4)	1.57	1.67
K% (L4)	20.0%	18.9%
BB% (L4)	7.4%	8.4%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	5.25
L4 window	08/15→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/26→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.38	-1.17

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.38

Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.284
4-Seam Fastball—-1.50xwOBA 0.411
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.173
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.338
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.331

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -1.17

4-Seam Fastball—-1.40xwOBA 0.387
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.278
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.367
Slider—-3.00xwOBA 0.367

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.786

Σ match

3.067

Σ FRV

-21.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.317	0.345	-10.7
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.275	0.307	-1.5
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.336	0.375	-3.3
4	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.350	0.377	-4.7
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.333	0.388	-1.0
6	LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	0.424	0.380	+0.8
7	1B	Royce Lewis	0.308	0.309	-1.7
8	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.273	0.320	+0.1
9	SS	Ben Ross	0.170	0.265	+0.0

home · LAA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.613

Σ match

2.624

Σ FRV

-11.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Zach Neto	0.311	0.319	-2.3
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.379	0.360	-3.5
3	LF	Jose Siri	0.300	0.308	+2.3
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.306	0.303	-6.1
5	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.265	0.251	+0.3
6	SS	Oswald Peraza	0.275	0.273	+0.8
7	C	Travis d'Arnaud	0.244	0.263	-3.0
8	2B	Christian Moore	0.222	0.234	-1.4
9	RF	Wade Meckler	0.311	0.313	+1.9

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-4.7
framing-1.1
blocking+0.0
throwing-3.7

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Travis d'Arnaud

FRV-3.0
framing-2.5
blocking-0.2
throwing-0.3

MIN · Connor Prielipp

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs CLE · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-21 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-26: Stuff+ 98 · Location+ 107 · Pitching+ 104 · botStf 51 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 61 · SIERA 3.07

2026-08-21: Stuff+ 106 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 55 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.48

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Grayson Rodriguez

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs WSH · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-07: Stuff+ 100 · Location+ 83 · Pitching+ 82 · botStf 54 · botCmd 48 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 6.74

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 100 · Pitching+ 103 · botStf 55 · botCmd 53 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 3.58

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.48]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.51)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.25)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.48	21.5	13.0	1.12	22/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.32	35.5	9.6	0.94	5/21/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.78	21.5	12.6	0.94	1/12/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.32	18.8	11.3	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.16	21.1	8.2	1.31	4/22/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.80	26.5	8.8	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.99	23.3	4.7	1.00	1/9/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.30	23.8	10.4	1.46	2/1/6	stable

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Bachman	SETUP	MR	4.75	23.2	13.6	1.17	1/17/4	ramping down
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.57	28.2	6.4	0.56	0/9/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.86	27.0	10.6	1.11	1/8/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	3.93	20.2	7.4	1.61	3/8/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.64	25.2	11.1	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.49	19.4	3.0	—	0/3/0	—
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	3.58	30.5	15.3	—	5/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.82	23.3	13.7	—	0/5/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.18	26.7	9.3	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 MIN · 0 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

3 R

9H · 1HR · 0BB · 6K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.353 · K% 16.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

LAA

0 R

4H · 0HR · 3BB · 10K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.129 · K% 29.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 2.3 IP · 3 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Walker Jenkins (CF) · 3-4 | HR, RBI, RHR · 3 H

tough nights

Kody Clemens (2B) · 0-4 | R0-for-4
Emmanuel Rodriguez (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Ben Ross (SS) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

LAA · standout lines

tough nights

Mike Trout (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Denzer Guzman (3B) · 0-40-for-4
Oswald Peraza (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4