SF @ LAD

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 823898past slate · free
refreshed 163h 51m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
70°F
humidity 70%
wind
7 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
LAD
open · HP→CF 28°
CFHP1B3BOUT
wind impact on total
+0.11 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricCesar PerdomoLHP · SFTyler GlasnowRHP · LAD
xERA 20264.363.11
xwOBA 20260.3210.274
wOBA−xwOBA 20260.008-0.022
xERA 2025—3.33
xwOBA 2025—0.285
Outs/TB 25-261.832.75
FIP 25-264.183.42
kwERA 25-264.023.04
K% 25-2618.0%30.2%
BB% 25-266.6%10.5%
IP 25+26 combined14.7152.0
ERA actual 20263.683.50
ERA (L4)3.684.91
WHIP (L4)1.361.23
K% (L4)18.0%30.1%
BB% (L4)6.6%8.6%
IP/gm (L4)4.895.50
L4 window09/01→09/12 (3 outs) · 3/3 dates verified08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)86 (−1)97 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)4.02 (+0.65)3.84 (+0.87)
Arsenal RV/1000.651.14

away arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.65
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.417
  • Changeup—+4.60xwOBA 0.252
  • Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.336

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.14
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.359
  • Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.164
  • Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.329
  • Slider—+2.50xwOBA 0.246

away · SF vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.511
Σ match
2.486
Σ FRV
-2.5
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1CFDrew Gilbert0.3300.297+3.7
2LFTurner Hill0.3280.301-0.5
32BJonah Cox0.2730.263+1.8
4RFJung Hoo Lee0.3150.280-6.7
53BShay Whitcomb0.2680.270+0.8
6CDrew Cavanaugh0.3110.286-2.7
71BBrett Harris0.2930.291+0.6
8DHScott Bandura0.1360.250-1.2
9SSChristian Koss0.2570.248+1.7

home · LAD vs LHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.033
Σ match
3.306
Σ FRV
-5.0
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1SSMookie Betts0.3360.355+6.1
2CWill Smith0.3770.421-1.0
3LFTeoscar Hernández0.3340.397-6.0
41BFreddie Freeman0.3680.396+1.4
52BMiguel Rojas0.3110.346+2.2
6RFKyle Tucker0.3320.370-7.1
73BEnrique Hernández0.2820.316-1.3
8CFAlex Call0.2760.330+0.7
9DHJosue De Paula0.4170.373+0.0

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh
  • FRV-2.7
  • framing-3.6
  • blocking+0.8
  • throwing+0.1

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith
  • FRV-1.0
  • framing-1.8
  • blocking+0.4
  • throwing+0.4

SF · Cesar Perdomo

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs SD · 4.2 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+8884(-4)86
Location+105111(+5)107
Pitching+96102(+7)98
botStf4849(+0)49
botCmd4962(+13)53
botOvr4655(+9)49
SIERA3.385.31(+1.94)4.02

Last 3 outings: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.87

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Tyler Glasnow

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs MIA · 4.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+10294(-8)97
Location+9979(-20)98
Pitching+10580(-25)101
botStf5758(+1)57
botCmd5238(-14)48
botOvr5346(-8)52
SIERA2.974.52(+1.55)3.84

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 5.51

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.48R / inningband [0.38–0.58]
0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Philip Abner (5.56)
LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.47]
0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.05)

SF

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Joel KuhnelSETUPCL5.5613.08.61.018/6/16stable
Dylan SmithMRMR3.6725.912.30.884/7/5stable
Jason FoleyMRMR3.7413.19.11.000/2/0insufficient data
Reiver SanmartinMRMR4.4017.27.51.670/4/1insufficient data
Philip AbnerMRMR5.1810.712.01.870/1/1stable
Carson SeymourMRMR6.0215.212.82.171/8/0insufficient data
Trent HarrisunknownMR1.5932.59.1—1/5/0—
Matt WilkinsonunknownMR5.1214.84.9—0/0/0—

LAD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Tanner ScottCLOSERCL2.1732.15.90.9422/12/21stable
Edwin DíazCLOSERCL6.0224.112.70.867/0/6stable
Alex VesiaSETUPSU3.2929.913.80.763/20/6stable
Blake TreinenSETUPMR3.5525.69.10.791/6/5stable
Jack DreyerMRMR3.5528.19.11.012/11/9stable
Brock StewartMRMR4.1023.19.91.061/7/2stable
Evan PhillipsMRMR4.6428.06.51.001/7/3stable
Seth HalvorsenMOP_UPMR6.3015.312.40.900/2/4stable
Justin WrobleskiSPLR4.2120.35.56.020/0/1ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
10
2 SF · 8 LAD
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

SF

2 R

5H · 1HR · 2BB · 14K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 41.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 8 ER · 6 K · relief 3.3 IP · 4 arms

LAD

8 R

11H · 5HR · 5BB · 6K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.410 · SLGe 0.794 · K% 15.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 14 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

SF · standout lines

big nights
  • Jung Hoo Lee (RF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
tough nights
  • Shay Whitcomb (3B) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
  • Christian Koss (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

LAD · standout lines

big nights
  • Mookie Betts (SS) · 3-4 | 2 HR, BB, 3 RBI2-HR night · 3 H · 9 TB
  • Will Smith (C) · 1-4 | HR, BB, RBIHR
  • Max Muncy (3B) · 1-2 | HR, RBI, RHR
  • Kyle Tucker (RF) · 2-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR
tough nights
  • Freddie Freeman (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
  • Enrique Hernández (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks