Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 823572past slate · free
refreshed 168h 35m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citi Field
gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
76°F
humidity 54%
wind
6 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
clear
park
NYM
open · HP→CF 21°
wind impact on total
-0.18 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_
opener / bulk pattern
PHI: Tim Mayza opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Tim MayzaLHP · PHI
Zac ThorntonLHP · NYM
xERA 2026
3.21
4.61
xwOBA 2026
0.278
0.329
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.005
-0.016
xERA 2025
3.07
—
xwOBA 2025
0.274
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.24
1.93
FIP 25-26
3.34
4.45
kwERA 25-26
3.31
3.80
K% 25-26
23.8%
18.8%
BB% 25-26
6.4%
5.5%
IP 25+26 combined
81.3
73.3
ERA actual 2026
3.06
3.44
ERA (L4)
1.23
4.30
WHIP (L4)
0.68
1.17
K% (L4)
30.8%
20.4%
BB% (L4)
0.0%
2.2%
IP/gm (L4)
1.83
5.75
L4 window
06/22→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
91 (−5)
100 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.90 (−0.32)
4.11 (−0.14)
Arsenal RV/100
1.12
0.11
away arsenal · BULK Tim Mayza — PHI
RV/100 1.12
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.274
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.318
4-Seam Fastball—+2.60xwOBA 0.207
home arsenal — NYM
RV/100 0.11
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.356
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.300
Sweeper—-0.30xwOBA 0.283
Slider—-3.40xwOBA 0.402
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.369
Curveball—-1.00xwOBA 0.241
Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.287
away · PHI vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.939
Σ match
3.086
Σ FRV
-7.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.364
0.395
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.291
0.295
-9.6
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.385
0.410
-11.2
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.307
0.336
+10.9
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.327
0.335
-6.5
6
LF
Edmundo Sosa
0.328
0.345
+1.7
7
3B
Bryson Stott
0.326
0.337
+5.8
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.323
0.329
-0.0
9
CF
Derek Hill
0.288
0.304
+2.6
home · NYM vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.948
Σ match
2.700
Σ FRV
+1.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.330
0.319
+1.4
2
LF
Juan Soto
0.413
0.375
-5.5
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.325
0.287
-1.8
4
RF
Carson Benge
0.337
0.323
+6.7
5
DH
Mark Vientos
0.313
0.291
-7.0
6
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.320
0.281
+7.0
7
2B
Marcus Semien
0.304
0.278
-8.6
8
1B
Brett Baty
0.311
0.292
+0.3
9
C
Luis Torrens
0.295
0.256
+9.4
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV-0.0
framing-0.9
blocking-1.2
throwing+2.1
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Luis Torrens
FRV+9.4
framing+5.6
blocking+1.6
throwing+2.2
PHI · Tim Mayza
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs NYM · 0.1 IP
Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
—
—
91
Location+
—
—
125
Pitching+
—
—
113
botStf
—
—
48
botCmd
—
—
65
botOvr
—
—
62
SIERA
—
—
2.90
Last 3 starts: 2026-06-27 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYM · Zac Thornton
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs NYY · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
102(+4)
100
Location+
95
117(+22)
105
Pitching+
93
113(+20)
102
botStf
48
49(+1)
50
botCmd
51
64(+13)
56
botOvr
52
63(+11)
55
SIERA
4.26
5.23(+0.97)
4.11
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.52
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.