Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 823331past slate · free
refreshed 168h 40m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
73°F
humidity 77%
wind
3 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
partly cloudy
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
+0.04 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Randy DobnakRHP · KC
Paul SkenesRHP · PIT
xERA 2026
4.48
3.25
xwOBA 2026
0.325
0.280
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.025
0.015
xERA 2025
5.73
2.65
xwOBA 2025
0.364
0.255
Outs/TB 25-26
2.28
2.44
FIP 25-26
4.11
2.76
kwERA 25-26
4.52
2.71
K% 25-26
15.5%
28.7%
BB% 25-26
8.1%
6.3%
IP 25+26 combined
74.7
349.7
ERA actual 2026
2.73
3.78
ERA (L4)
4.94
2.74
WHIP (L4)
1.01
1.04
K% (L4)
19.4%
15.2%
BB% (L4)
3.2%
5.4%
IP/gm (L4)
5.92
5.75
L4 window
08/26→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
79 (−3)
97 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.94 (−0.69)
4.80 (+1.20)
Arsenal RV/100
0.63
0.46
away arsenal — KC
RV/100 0.63
Sinker—+2.00xwOBA 0.371
Sweeper—-0.70xwOBA 0.349
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.251
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.254
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.297
home arsenal — PIT
RV/100 0.46
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.280
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.238
Changeup—-1.80xwOBA 0.254
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.316
Split-Finger—+0.40xwOBA 0.339
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.251
away · KC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.823
Σ match
2.525
Σ FRV
+26.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Carter Jensen
0.314
0.273
+3.2
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.378
0.337
+15.9
3
1B
Vinnie Pasquantino
0.328
0.286
+0.7
4
3B
Maikel Garcia
0.315
0.279
+5.5
5
2B
Michael Massey
0.308
0.259
+6.7
6
DH
Salvador Perez
0.311
0.293
-9.2
7
LF
John Rave
0.320
0.301
+1.5
8
RF
Nick Loftin
0.291
0.265
-1.3
9
CF
Kyle Isbel
0.258
0.233
+3.4
home · PIT vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.909
Σ match
3.048
Σ FRV
-8.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.302
0.312
-4.0
2
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.325
0.324
+11.6
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.355
0.378
-3.6
4
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.352
0.364
+1.7
5
3B
Nick Gonzales
0.326
0.337
-10.0
6
DH
Ryan O'Hearn
0.318
0.349
-3.0
7
RF
Ronny Simon
0.330
0.333
+0.2
8
1B
Spencer Horwitz
0.309
0.322
-3.9
9
C
Henry Davis
0.292
0.329
+2.7
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carter Jensen
FRV+3.2
framing+3.0
blocking-2.1
throwing+2.3
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Henry Davis
FRV+2.7
framing-0.1
blocking+0.8
throwing+1.9
KC · Randy Dobnak
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs BOS · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
82
73(-9)
79
Location+
106
111(+6)
106
Pitching+
88
95(+6)
89
botStf
41
42(+1)
41
botCmd
52
55(+3)
52
botOvr
48
51(+3)
47
SIERA
4.63
3.71(-0.92)
3.94
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.64
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Paul Skenes
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs CHC · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
87(-12)
97
Location+
107
114(+7)
107
Pitching+
105
107(+2)
102
botStf
52
49(-3)
50
botCmd
56
57(+1)
54
botOvr
56
55(-1)
55
SIERA
3.61
4.45(+0.84)
4.80
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.83
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.50R / inningband [0.45–0.54]
0.117 R/PA · 0.166 R/out · worst: Lucas Erceg (5.23)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.