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today's slate

MIA @ SD

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 823252past slate · free
refreshed 165h 57m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Petco Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
71°F
humidity 76%
wind
6 mph
in from RF
precip
0%
mostly clear
park
SD
open · HP→CF 0°
CFHP1B3BIN
wind impact on total
-0.11 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Petco's marine-cool air is the suppressor; wind from west onshore most days_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricTyler PhillipsRHP · MIANick PivettaRHP · SD
xERA 20264.702.86
xwOBA 20260.3320.263
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.015-0.022
xERA 20253.663.96
xwOBA 20250.2980.309
Outs/TB 25-262.122.53
FIP 25-264.473.29
kwERA 25-264.332.99
K% 25-2618.0%26.9%
BB% 25-269.1%6.8%
IP 25+26 combined196.7206.7
ERA actual 20263.553.60
ERA (L4)2.952.00
WHIP (L4)1.090.78
K% (L4)23.3%20.6%
BB% (L4)12.3%0.0%
IP/gm (L4)4.584.50
L4 window08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified09/07→09/13 (2 st) · 1/2 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)——
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)——
Arsenal RV/100-0.101.59

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 -0.10
  • Sinker—-1.50xwOBA 0.393
  • Sweeper—+0.90xwOBA 0.278
  • Split-Finger—+1.30xwOBA 0.270
  • Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.343
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-3.80xwOBA 0.383

home arsenal — SD

RV/100 1.59
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+2.50xwOBA 0.273
  • Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.280
  • Cutter—+2.30xwOBA 0.284
  • Sweeper—-1.20xwOBA 0.213

away · MIA vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.843
Σ match
2.515
Σ FRV
+17.7
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
11BKyle Stowers0.3240.274-2.9
2LFHeriberto Hernández0.3500.305+0.5
3SSOtto Lopez0.3270.294+10.3
4RFGriffin Conine0.3610.339-1.4
53BJavier Sanoja0.2920.253+2.4
6CFJakob Marsee0.3110.279+4.8
72BXavier Edwards0.3120.286-1.5
8CJoe Mack0.2870.255+10.2
9DHAgustín Ramírez0.2790.231-4.7

home · SD vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.806
Σ match
2.924
Σ FRV
+33.6
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
12BFernando Tatis Jr.0.3770.370+5.0
2RFDustin Harris0.3360.340+0.4
3DHManny Machado0.3330.333+7.3
41BTy France0.3330.344+9.6
5CFJackson Merrill0.3490.365+9.5
6SSXander Bogaerts0.3230.320+4.2
73BJake Cronenworth0.2710.281-1.5
8LFSamad Taylor0.3060.314-0.4
9CEthan Salas0.1780.257-0.5

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack
  • FRV+10.2
  • framing+5.3
  • blocking+0.0
  • throwing+4.9

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Ethan Salas
  • FRV-0.5
  • framing-0.6
  • blocking+0.2
  • throwing-0.1

MIA · Tyler Phillips

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs LAD · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 103 · Location+ 109 · Pitching+ 104 · botStf 53 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 4.50

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 89 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 94 · botStf 49 · botCmd 46 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 4.44

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SD · Nick Pivetta

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs SF · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 2 starts: 2026-09-07 → 2026-09-13. 1/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-07: Stuff+ 89 · Location+ 111 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 48 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 4.90

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.54]
0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.40)
SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]
0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Randy Vásquez (4.41)

MIA

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Calvin FaucherSETUPCL2.9524.612.70.983/17/7stable
Michael PetersenSETUPSU3.2029.710.81.061/25/4stable
Dax FultonBULKMR2.9723.513.72.500/0/3ramping down
Cade GibsonMRMR4.1919.010.01.280/4/7stable
Victor VodnikMRMR4.2615.812.61.084/6/12stable
Josh EknessMRMR5.0415.515.50.891/2/2stable
Tyler ZuberMRSU5.0525.06.70.871/10/5stable
Bradley BlalockunknownLR4.2623.17.7—0/0/0—
Jack RalstonunknownMR5.3025.09.6—0/3/0—

SD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Mason MillerCLOSERCL0.9648.49.31.0437/0/34stable
Adrian MorejonSETUPSU2.3430.07.21.163/26/6stable
Kyle HartSETUPMR3.5022.08.51.400/8/5stable
Bradgley RodriguezOPENERSU2.8526.46.41.092/15/5stable
Wandy PeraltaOPENERMR3.9215.87.61.170/4/14stable
David MorganMRMR4.0123.712.91.220/3/5stable
Yuki MatsuiMRMR4.1926.713.81.351/9/5ramping down
Randy VásquezSPLR4.3614.96.64.830/2/0ramping down
Griffin CanningSPMR4.7122.510.44.240/1/0ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
10
2 MIA · 8 SD
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

MIA

2 R

10H · 1HR · 1BB · 7K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.417 · K% 18.9

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 8 ER · 10 K · relief 4.3 IP · 6 arms

SD

8 R

12H · 2HR · 4BB · 10K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.410 · SLGe 0.543 · K% 25.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights
  • Agustín Ramírez (DH) · 3-4 | HR, RBI, RHR · 3 H
tough nights
  • Kyle Stowers (1B) · 0-50-for-5
  • Griffin Conine (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

SD · standout lines

big nights
  • Ty France (1B) · 2-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR
  • Jackson Merrill (CF) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
tough nights
  • Manny Machado (DH) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
  • Ethan Salas (C) · 0-40-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks