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today's slate

WSH @ STL

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 823005past slate · free

refreshed 168h 36m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Busch Stadium

gametime 8:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

93°F

humidity 37%

wind

4 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

STL

open · HP→CF 4°

wind impact on total

-0.04 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cade CavalliRHP · WSH	Kyle LeahyRHP · STL
xERA 2026	3.71	4.77
xwOBA 2026	0.298	0.334
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.003	-0.012
xERA 2025	4.13	4.42
xwOBA 2025	0.315	0.325
Outs/TB 25-26	2.11	2.08
FIP 25-26	3.60	3.32
kwERA 25-26	3.12	3.57
K% 25-26	26.0%	22.3%
BB% 25-26	7.0%	7.1%
IP 25+26 combined	213.3	223.0
ERA actual 2026	3.12	3.33
ERA (L4)	2.45	4.26
WHIP (L4)	0.82	1.34
K% (L4)	36.8%	31.5%
BB% (L4)	6.9%	5.6%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	3.17
L4 window	08/24→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/23→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.38	0.18

away arsenal — WSH

RV/100 0.38

4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.329
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.242
Sweeper—+1.90xwOBA 0.227
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.341
Changeup—-1.50xwOBA 0.363
Cutter—+1.40xwOBA 0.396

home arsenal — STL

RV/100 0.18

4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.428
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.294
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.326
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.306
Sweeper—-0.40xwOBA 0.306
Sinker—+1.90xwOBA 0.319

away · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.950

Σ match

3.174

Σ FRV

-8.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	James Wood	0.412	0.452	-7.9
2	LF	Daylen Lile	0.327	0.358	+2.3
3	RF	Dylan Crews	0.312	0.332	+1.2
4	SS	CJ Abrams	0.330	0.362	-12.5
5	3B	Brady House	0.337	0.352	-2.3
6	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.292	0.318	+3.5
7	1B	Yohandy Morales	0.336	0.335	+0.1
8	C	Harry Ford	0.290	0.321	-1.9
9	CF	Jacob Young	0.314	0.343	+8.6

home · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.985

Σ match

2.835

Σ FRV

+34.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	0.350	0.337	+21.5
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.332	0.303	-4.5
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.376	0.367	+6.0
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.344	0.336	-8.0
5	C	Leo Bernal	0.378	0.342	+0.7
6	3B	Thomas Saggese	0.319	0.298	+0.0
7	LF	Bryan Torres	0.298	0.295	+2.0
8	SS	Masyn Winn	0.299	0.284	+16.4
9	CF	Nathan Church	0.289	0.274	+0.8

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Harry Ford

FRV-1.9
framing-0.6
blocking-1.0
throwing-0.4

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Leo Bernal

FRV+0.7
framing+0.6
blocking+0.2
throwing+0.7

WSH · Cade Cavalli

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 99 · Location+ 121 · Pitching+ 120 · botStf 55 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 1.09

2026-08-29: Stuff+ 98 · Location+ 99 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 57 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 3.06

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

STL · Kyle Leahy

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs CWS · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 93 · Location+ 122 · Pitching+ 111 · botStf 52 · botCmd 63 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 1.48

2026-08-29: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 111 · Pitching+ 111 · botStf 56 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 4.34

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.34–0.59]

0.109 R/PA · 0.155 R/out · worst: Jared Simpson (7.20)

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.38–0.52]

0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Justin Bruihl (4.49)

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.40	21.0	9.2	2.15	1/7/4	stable
Richard Lovelady	OPENER	MR	5.15	18.8	13.6	0.92	4/9/11	ramping down
Will Dion	MR	MR	3.96	28.0	8.0	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Riley Cornelio	MR	MR	4.21	23.9	17.9	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Yovanny Cruz	MR	SU	4.51	20.4	14.8	1.44	0/2/1	insufficient data
Erik Tolman	unknown	CL	2.47	23.9	10.9	—	3/1/0	—
Jack Sinclair	unknown	MR	4.03	22.7	13.6	—	1/0/0	—
Jared Simpson	unknown	MR	6.09	20.0	35.0	—	0/0/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	8.64	23.4	23.4	—	0/0/0	—

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	4.02	23.0	10.8	0.99	37/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.93	15.9	8.2	1.11	0/11/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.51	24.9	11.7	0.89	2/26/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	MR	4.89	22.3	12.0	0.98	4/21/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	MR	5.65	25.4	15.3	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo	MR	SU	3.83	19.0	10.8	1.18	1/7/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.21	29.2	8.0	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cooper Hjerpe	unknown	LR	3.09	39.1	17.4	—	0/0/0	—
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	3.81	29.7	10.8	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 WSH · 1 STL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

WSH

9 R

7H · 1HR · 6BB · 6K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.325 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 15.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

STL

1 R

7H · 0HR · 1BB · 9K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.242 · K% 25.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 6 K · relief 6.0 IP · 3 arms

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Dylan Crews (RF) · 2-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Harry Ford (C) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

STL · standout lines

big nights

Leo Bernal (C) · 3-4 | K3 H

tough nights

Bryan Torres (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K