Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 822923past slate · free
refreshed 168h 39m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
85°F
humidity 55%
wind
7 mph
in from LF
precip
23%
mostly clear
park
TB
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.16 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Steinbrenner Field is fully open spring training park — first wind-sensitive home for the Rays since Tropicana_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Ranger SuarezLHP · BOS
Ian SeymourLHP · TB
xERA 2026
3.69
3.48
xwOBA 2026
0.297
0.289
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.009
0.021
xERA 2025
3.14
3.93
xwOBA 2025
0.277
0.308
Outs/TB 25-26
2.21
1.98
FIP 25-26
3.14
3.75
kwERA 25-26
3.40
2.83
K% 25-26
23.0%
28.5%
BB% 25-26
6.4%
7.1%
IP 25+26 combined
295.0
179.3
ERA actual 2026
3.33
4.27
ERA (L4)
2.96
4.87
WHIP (L4)
1.23
1.18
K% (L4)
16.7%
35.3%
BB% (L4)
6.9%
3.5%
IP/gm (L4)
6.08
5.08
L4 window
08/24→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/20→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (+1)
98 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.24 (+0.19)
2.91 (−1.21)
Arsenal RV/100
0.83
0.27
away arsenal — BOS
RV/100 0.83
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.335
4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.315
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.309
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.209
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.278
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.302
home arsenal — TB
RV/100 0.27
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.245
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.300
Sweeper—-0.30xwOBA 0.285
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.367
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.287
away · BOS vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.755
Σ match
2.570
Σ FRV
+7.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Roman Anthony
0.346
0.319
-0.1
2
1B
Nick Sogard
0.317
0.297
+2.5
3
DH
Jahmai Jones
0.325
0.313
-1.6
4
RF
Wilyer Abreu
0.352
0.330
+4.7
5
SS
Trevor Story
0.253
0.230
-1.5
6
3B
Caleb Durbin
0.294
0.263
+5.5
7
2B
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
0.311
0.283
+4.2
8
CF
Nate Eaton
0.273
0.281
+2.4
9
C
Connor Wong
0.284
0.255
-8.4
home · TB vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.780
Σ match
2.631
Σ FRV
+9.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.347
0.310
—
2
1B
Jonathan Aranda
0.347
0.325
-0.2
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.363
0.353
-7.7
4
2B
Ryan Vilade
0.333
0.315
-2.4
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.265
0.246
+3.8
6
CF
Jonny DeLuca
0.264
0.256
+10.2
7
C
Nick Fortes
0.276
0.261
-0.9
8
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.335
0.321
+9.2
9
SS
Taylor Walls
0.250
0.243
-2.8
defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)
Connor Wong
FRV-8.4
framing-7.4
blocking+0.6
throwing-1.6
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Nick Fortes
FRV-0.9
framing-1.2
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.1
BOS · Ranger Suarez
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs KC · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
94
104(+10)
96
Location+
106
121(+15)
108
Pitching+
100
119(+19)
101
botStf
45
48(+3)
46
botCmd
56
59(+4)
54
botOvr
53
57(+4)
52
SIERA
4.05
2.46(-1.58)
4.24
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.47
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TB · Ian Seymour
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs HOU · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
97(-5)
98
Location+
101
115(+15)
108
Pitching+
102
109(+7)
103
botStf
51
48(-3)
46
botCmd
55
66(+11)
56
botOvr
53
60(+7)
50
SIERA
4.11
1.67(-2.45)
2.91
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.93
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.32–0.46]
0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.25)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.