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today's slate

TOR @ TEX

Friday · September 18, 2026·full·gamePk 822847past slate · free
refreshed 168h 36m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
94°F
humidity 32%
wind
8 mph
out to LF
precip
0%
clear
park
TEX
retractable · HP→CF 7°
CFHP1B3BOUT
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricDylan CeaseRHP · TORKumar RockerRHP · TEX
xERA 20262.794.61
xwOBA 20260.2600.329
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.0110.006
xERA 20253.465.73
xwOBA 20250.2900.364
Outs/TB 25-262.571.71
FIP 25-263.014.54
kwERA 25-262.733.95
K% 25-2632.5%21.0%
BB% 25-2610.3%8.9%
IP 25+26 combined334.3203.0
ERA actual 20262.384.54
ERA (L4)2.453.57
WHIP (L4)1.091.53
K% (L4)30.3%28.8%
BB% (L4)9.0%12.5%
IP/gm (L4)5.504.42
L4 window08/28→09/13 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified08/19→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)——
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)——
Arsenal RV/1001.36-0.22

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 1.36
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.302
  • Slider—+2.90xwOBA 0.208
  • Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.186
  • Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.310
  • Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.326
  • Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.237

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 -0.22
  • Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.223
  • Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.382
  • Cutter—-1.00xwOBA 0.438
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.337
  • Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.491

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.717
Σ match
2.884
Σ FRV
+22.5
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1CFBrett Bateman0.3060.335+2.8
2RFNathan Lukes0.2840.295+8.0
31BVladimir Guerrero Jr.0.3360.342+6.3
4DHGeorge Springer0.3080.335-0.3
5CAlejandro Kirk0.3120.338+9.6
63BKazuma Okamoto0.3300.340-2.9
72BJosh Smith0.2840.309-2.6
8SSErnie Clement0.2600.281-2.8
9LFMyles Straw0.2970.308+4.3

home · TEX vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.784
Σ match
2.309
Σ FRV
+20.3
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
13BEzequiel Duran0.3040.250+13.5
2SSCorey Seager0.3510.279-0.9
3DHJosh Jung0.3490.292-4.4
4RFBrandon Nimmo0.3430.281-5.4
5LFWyatt Langford0.3190.270+3.3
61BJake Burger0.3150.266+3.3
72BNicky Lopez0.2580.214+1.1
8CElias Díaz0.2670.213+1.6
9CFEvan Carter0.2780.244+8.1

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk
  • FRV+9.6
  • framing+7.2
  • blocking+3.5
  • throwing-1.0

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz
  • FRV+1.6
  • framing+0.7
  • blocking+0.3
  • throwing+0.7

TOR · Dylan Cease

Last outing 2026-09-13 vs BAL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-13. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-07: Stuff+ 96 · Location+ 98 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 52 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.71

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 100 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 103 · botStf 53 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.78

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Kumar Rocker

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs AZ · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-24 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-30: Stuff+ 86 · Location+ 96 · Pitching+ 83 · botStf 49 · botCmd 51 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 4.57

2026-08-24: Stuff+ 86 · Location+ 77 · Pitching+ 66 · botStf 47 · botCmd 41 · botOvr 40 · SIERA 3.46

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.23–0.63]
0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Tyler Rogers (4.71)
TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.43R / inningband [0.39–0.48]
0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Robert Garcia (4.68)

TOR

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Louis VarlandCLOSERCL1.8031.77.31.1134/5/31stable
Paul SewaldCLOSERMR5.3324.85.80.9124/2/33stable
Tyler RogersSETUPSU3.2213.67.90.974/32/6stable
Mason FluhartyOPENERMR3.5725.710.30.761/17/5stable
Braydon FisherOPENERMR4.2724.313.31.051/13/7stable
Spencer MilesSWINGSU2.7223.56.52.372/4/6ramping up
Joe MantiplyMRMR3.6719.84.71.040/1/4ramping down
Brendon LittleMOP_UPMR5.0833.918.60.950/3/2ramping up
Brendan CellucciunknownMR-0.5160.00.0—0/0/0—
Spencer ArrighettiSPMR5.3421.612.95.440/0/0ramping down

TEX

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Jacob LatzCLOSERCL2.7529.88.51.2830/3/26stable
Jakob JunisSETUPSU3.7716.86.41.126/18/9stable
Chase SilsethSETUPMR3.8526.913.40.850/17/7stable
Tyler AlexanderOPENERMR3.0519.86.90.954/13/11stable
Robert GarciaMRSU3.2522.016.00.890/4/1stable
Robby AhlstromMRMR5.1720.79.10.820/7/3stable
Trevor WilliamsunknownMR3.9827.19.4—0/1/0—
Jordan MontgomeryunknownLR4.5318.75.3—0/0/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
8
1 TOR · 7 TEX
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

TOR

1 R

5H · 0HR · 2BB · 7K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.188 · K% 20.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 5.3 IP · 6 arms

TEX

7 R

8H · 0HR · 10BB · 9K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.419 · SLGe 0.355 · K% 20.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 K · relief 4.7 IP · 3 arms

TOR · standout lines

tough nights
  • Brett Bateman (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
  • George Springer (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

TEX · standout lines

tough nights
  • Elias Díaz (C) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
  • Evan Carter (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI, R0-for-4 · 2 K
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks