DET @ CWS

Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 824548past slate · free
refreshed 192h 1m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rate Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
69°F
humidity 95%
wind
8 mph
in from RF
precip
8%
partly cloudy
park
CWS
open · HP→CF 38°
CFHP1B3BIN
wind impact on total
-0.21 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.21 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricFramber ValdezLHP · DETErick FeddeRHP · CWS
xERA 20264.424.67
xwOBA 20260.3230.331
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.006-0.003
xERA 20253.775.37
xwOBA 20250.3020.354
Outs/TB 25-262.161.78
FIP 25-263.735.15
kwERA 25-263.974.80
K% 25-2620.4%14.6%
BB% 25-268.4%9.6%
IP 25+26 combined355.7274.7
ERA actual 20264.013.97
ERA (L4)2.162.79
WHIP (L4)1.161.03
K% (L4)10.0%18.2%
BB% (L4)6.0%6.5%
IP/gm (L4)6.254.83
L4 window08/24→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified07/26→09/04 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)106 (+3)89 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)4.11 (−0.38)4.45 (−0.59)
Arsenal RV/1000.14-0.17

away arsenal — DET

RV/100 0.14
  • Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.375
  • Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.268
  • Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.323
  • Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.151
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.259

home arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.17
  • Sweeper—+1.20xwOBA 0.288
  • Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.357
  • Cutter—-0.90xwOBA 0.376
  • Changeup—-2.80xwOBA 0.358

away · DET vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.887
Σ match
3.087
Σ FRV
+10.7
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
13BKevin McGonigle0.3570.365-0.3
2DHGleyber Torres0.3250.348-1.1
3CDillon Dingler0.3380.380+12.5
4LFRiley Greene0.3720.402-5.9
51BSpencer Torkelson0.3120.326-6.7
6RFZach McKinstry0.2850.334+11.0
7CFMax Clark0.3110.331+2.7
8SSJohn Peck0.3320.344+1.1
92BJavier Báez0.2550.257-2.6

home · CWS vs LHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.659
Σ match
2.850
Σ FRV
+2.2
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
12BChase Meidroth0.2970.313+11.4
2DHTommy Pham0.2100.273-0.1
33BMiguel Vargas0.3790.395-4.2
4LFRandal Grichuk0.3360.341-1.9
51BMunetaka Murakami0.3400.371-1.9
6CFBrenton Doyle0.2360.264-1.7
7CJake Rogers0.2690.313-1.5
8SSLuisangel Acuña0.2650.281+0.6
9RFBraden Montgomery0.3270.298+1.6

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler
  • FRV+12.5
  • framing+7.0
  • blocking+3.0
  • throwing+2.6

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Jake Rogers
  • FRV-1.5
  • framing-0.9
  • blocking-1.3
  • throwing+0.6

DET · Framber Valdez

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs COL · 6.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+103106(+3)106
Location+9689(-8)102
Pitching+10193(-7)105
botStf4949(-0)48
botCmd5349(-3)53
botOvr5147(-5)52
SIERA4.494.59(+0.10)4.11

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 5.33

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CWS · Erick Fedde

Last outing 2026-09-10 vs PIT · 5.1 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+8987(-2)89
Location+108103(-5)112
Pitching+10092(-8)103
botStf5054(+4)50
botCmd5657(+1)56
botOvr5352(-1)53
SIERA5.046.94(+1.91)4.45

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-31 → 2026-09-04. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.40

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.54]
0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Kyle Finnegan (4.82)
CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.35–0.46]
0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Chris Murphy (3.91)

DET

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Kenley JansenCLOSERCL4.6928.113.50.8920/1/22stable
Tyler KinleySETUPSU5.1421.511.90.871/14/9stable
Kyle FinneganSETUPMR5.4217.412.61.052/14/3stable
Tyler HoltonOPENERSU3.9718.65.71.062/14/8stable
Drew SommersMRMR2.5634.28.40.630/13/1stable
Brant HurterMRMR3.4217.610.11.210/1/4ramping up
Jacob WaguespackMRMR4.9816.410.11.300/5/4stable
Beau BrieskeMRLR5.1621.98.21.170/1/6stable

CWS

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Sean NewcombSETUPMR3.0922.29.11.514/11/6ramping up
Grant TaylorOPENERCL2.7632.38.91.338/10/11stable
Bryan HudsonOPENERCL3.0822.26.50.988/10/8stable
Chris MurphyOPENERMR4.4423.411.01.051/1/6stable
Jordan HicksMRMR3.7428.914.90.911/8/6stable
Trevor RichardsMRMR4.1821.87.51.461/1/16stable
Hagen SmithunknownSU2.2937.413.2—0/1/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
4
1 DET · 3 CWS
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

DET

1 R

8H · 0HR · 5BB · 10K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.368 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

CWS

3 R

5H · 1HR · 4BB · 11K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.265 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 32.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 4.3 IP · 4 arms

DET · standout lines

tough nights
  • Javier Báez (2B) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K

CWS · standout lines

big nights
  • Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 2-4 | HR, 3B, 2 KHR · 7 TB
tough nights
  • Jake Rogers (C) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks