Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 824464past slate · free
refreshed 199h 57m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Great American Ball Park
gametime 12:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
93°F
humidity 47%
wind
10 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
1%
clear
park
CIN
open · HP→CF 24°
wind impact on total
+0.08 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Justin WrobleskiLHP · LAD
Brady SingerRHP · CIN
xERA 2026
4.70
5.41
xwOBA 2026
0.332
0.353
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.029
0.011
xERA 2025
3.41
4.27
xwOBA 2025
0.288
0.320
Outs/TB 25-26
1.97
1.79
FIP 25-26
3.83
4.64
kwERA 25-26
3.40
3.92
K% 25-26
22.5%
20.7%
BB% 25-26
5.8%
8.3%
IP 25+26 combined
200.0
320.3
ERA actual 2026
3.78
5.38
ERA (L4)
9.72
9.95
WHIP (L4)
1.98
2.16
K% (L4)
22.6%
18.0%
BB% (L4)
9.5%
13.0%
IP/gm (L4)
4.17
4.75
L4 window
08/03→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (+4)
89 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.86 (−0.35)
5.58 (+0.97)
Arsenal RV/100
0.31
-1.09
away arsenal — LAD
RV/100 0.31
4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.308
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.325
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.387
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.329
Curveball—-1.30xwOBA 0.371
Sweeper—-3.80xwOBA 0.407
home arsenal — CIN
RV/100 -1.09
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.364
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.330
Sweeper—-2.30xwOBA 0.298
Cutter—-3.60xwOBA 0.468
4-Seam Fastball—-7.00xwOBA 0.474
away · LAD vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.000
Σ match
3.336
Σ FRV
-5.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Tommy Edman
0.306
0.391
+0.9
2
1B
Freddie Freeman
0.365
0.404
+1.4
3
RF
Kyle Tucker
0.330
0.368
-7.3
4
LF
Teoscar Hernández
0.335
0.374
-6.1
5
3B
Max Muncy
0.345
0.406
+1.5
6
DH
Josue De Paula
0.402
0.370
+0.0
7
C
Hunter Feduccia
0.319
0.343
+0.1
8
2B
Alex Freeland
0.294
0.329
+1.8
9
SS
Miguel Rojas
0.304
0.351
+2.2
home · CIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.764
Σ match
2.903
Σ FRV
+0.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Dane Myers
0.313
0.315
-1.0
2
DH
Elly De La Cruz
0.378
0.421
+4.8
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.346
0.353
-3.9
4
C
Tyler Stephenson
0.330
0.352
-7.5
5
2B
Juan Brito
0.292
0.321
-1.6
6
SS
Matt McLain
0.302
0.318
+2.9
7
RF
Héctor Rodríguez
0.259
0.243
-0.3
8
3B
Ke'Bryan Hayes
0.295
0.314
+4.5
9
LF
TJ Friedl
0.249
0.267
+3.0
defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)
Hunter Feduccia
FRV+0.1
framing+3.6
blocking-1.2
throwing-2.3
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Tyler Stephenson
FRV-7.5
framing-9.0
blocking+3.3
throwing-1.8
LAD · Justin Wrobleski
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs Miami Marlins · 2.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
96
112(+15)
100
Location+
112
107(-5)
111
Pitching+
107
116(+9)
110
botStf
51
60(+9)
54
botCmd
59
52(-7)
59
botOvr
59
55(-3)
60
SIERA
4.21
5.59(+1.38)
3.86
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-09-06. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.81
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CIN · Brady Singer
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs MIL · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
88(-3)
89
Location+
96
94(-2)
93
Pitching+
88
79(-9)
82
botStf
47
46(-1)
47
botCmd
54
58(+4)
54
botOvr
51
52(+1)
50
SIERA
4.61
6.21(+1.60)
5.58
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.40
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.75)
LAD
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Tanner Scott
CLOSER
CL
2.17
32.1
5.9
0.94
22/12/21
stable
Blake Treinen
SETUP
MR
3.24
24.8
9.4
0.79
1/6/5
stable
Alex Vesia
SETUP
SU
3.29
29.9
13.8
0.76
3/20/6
stable
Landon Knack
BULK
MR
9.48
17.1
5.7
2.50
1/0/2
insufficient data
Jack Dreyer
MR
MR
3.54
28.1
9.1
1.01
2/11/9
stable
Brock Stewart
MR
MR
4.10
23.1
9.9
1.06
1/7/2
stable
Evan Phillips
MR
MR
4.64
28.0
6.5
1.00
1/7/3
stable
Seth Halvorsen
MOP_UP
MR
6.50
15.2
12.9
0.90
0/2/4
stable
Justin Wrobleski
SP
LR
4.28
20.1
5.6
6.02
0/0/1
ramping down
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.33
25.8
6.1
0.91
23/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.66
27.4
16.3
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.79
23.8
12.9
0.95
2/20/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.97
19.0
9.2
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Tony Santillan
SETUP
MR
7.00
19.4
14.0
0.91
5/11/11
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.66
31.2
13.5
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.83
24.4
7.4
1.00
1/9/6
stable
Julian Garcia
MR
MR
4.59
22.9
10.6
1.62
2/3/2
stable
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.