Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 824305past slate · free
refreshed 197h 27m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Coors Field
gametime 3:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
81°F
humidity 43%
wind
2 mph
out to CF
precip
10%
overcast
park
COL
open · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
+0.05 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Michael KingRHP · SD
Tanner GordonRHP · COL
xERA 2026
4.42
4.58
xwOBA 2026
0.323
0.328
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.032
0.049
xERA 2025
4.24
5.88
xwOBA 2025
0.319
0.368
Outs/TB 25-26
2.30
1.35
FIP 25-26
4.28
4.70
kwERA 25-26
3.85
3.71
K% 25-26
22.0%
18.7%
BB% 25-26
9.0%
4.6%
IP 25+26 combined
248.3
172.7
ERA actual 2026
3.03
5.55
ERA (L4)
1.04
4.79
WHIP (L4)
1.00
1.45
K% (L4)
19.8%
18.9%
BB% (L4)
7.9%
3.3%
IP/gm (L4)
6.50
5.17
L4 window
08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/26→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
90 (−6)
86 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.79 (+0.28)
4.19 (+0.14)
Arsenal RV/100
0.70
-1.02
away arsenal — SD
RV/100 0.70
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.284
4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.341
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.296
Slider—+2.70xwOBA 0.252
home arsenal — COL
RV/100 -1.02
4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.345
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.314
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.310
Curveball—-3.40xwOBA 0.267
Cutter—-0.30xwOBA 0.324
away · SD vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.957
Σ match
3.036
Σ FRV
+30.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Fernando Tatis Jr.
0.376
0.391
+4.9
2
CF
Dustin Harris
0.336
0.338
+0.4
3
3B
Manny Machado
0.334
0.350
+7.1
4
1B
Ty France
0.333
0.336
+9.2
5
DH
Jackson Merrill
0.349
0.349
+9.4
6
SS
Xander Bogaerts
0.320
0.329
+4.1
7
C
Luis Campusano
0.333
0.341
-2.2
8
2B
Jake Cronenworth
0.269
0.280
-1.5
9
LF
Samad Taylor
0.307
0.322
-0.4
home · COL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.809
Σ match
2.956
Σ FRV
-8.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Jake McCarthy
0.326
0.337
-0.7
2
2B
Connor Norby
0.307
0.333
-2.5
3
SS
Cole Carrigg
0.313
0.344
+0.3
4
1B
TJ Rumfield
0.336
0.357
+4.9
5
3B
Kyle Karros
0.342
0.347
+0.1
6
LF
Mickey Moniak
0.280
0.292
+0.5
7
DH
Troy Johnston
0.325
0.344
-3.2
8
C
Brett Sullivan
0.283
0.297
-5.4
9
RF
Zac Veen
0.297
0.306
-2.6
defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)
Luis Campusano
FRV-2.2
framing-4.4
blocking-0.4
throwing+2.6
defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)
Brett Sullivan
FRV-5.4
framing-4.3
blocking-0.1
throwing-0.9
SD · Michael King
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs SF · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
95
87(-8)
90
Location+
100
118(+17)
102
Pitching+
97
107(+10)
94
botStf
51
49(-2)
50
botCmd
53
59(+6)
50
botOvr
51
54(+2)
47
SIERA
4.51
3.94(-0.57)
4.79
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.13
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
COL · Tanner Gordon
Last outing 2026-09-12 vs DET · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
87
88(+2)
86
Location+
110
89(-21)
101
Pitching+
94
73(-21)
84
botStf
42
41(-1)
40
botCmd
60
49(-10)
52
botOvr
52
42(-10)
45
SIERA
4.04
3.91(-0.14)
4.19
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.05
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]
0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Randy Vásquez (4.41)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.