Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 824141past slate · free
refreshed 192h 56m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Daikin Park
gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
82°F
humidity 88%
wind
3 mph
out to RF
precip
11%
overcast
park
HOU
retractable · HP→CF 345°
wind impact on total
+0.01 R/Gnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
opener / bulk pattern
HOU: Miguel Ullola opens → bulk: AJ Blubaugh· predicted bulk based on 1/6 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Seth LugoRHP · KC
Miguel UllolaRHP · opener · HOU
AJ BlubaughRHP · bulk · HOU
xERA 2026
5.06
3.16
4.07
xwOBA 2026
0.343
0.276
0.311
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.009
-0.015
-0.008
xERA 2025
5.16
—
3.19
xwOBA 2025
0.348
—
0.279
Outs/TB 25-26
1.74
2.00
2.24
FIP 25-26
4.59
4.22
4.22
kwERA 25-26
4.10
1.80
3.55
K% 25-26
19.0%
33.3%
25.2%
BB% 25-26
8.2%
3.3%
9.7%
IP 25+26 combined
309.3
8.0
123.0
ERA actual 2026
4.99
3.38
3.26
ERA (L4)
7.23
0.00
9.00
WHIP (L4)
1.98
0.33
2.33
K% (L4)
16.7%
30.0%
12.5%
BB% (L4)
7.8%
0.0%
18.8%
IP/gm (L4)
4.67
1.00
0.75
L4 window
08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/18→09/11 (3 outs) · 3/3 dates verified
09/08→09/15 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
90 (+0)
112 (+4)
105 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.25 (+0.50)
3.97 (+0.87)
6.65 (+2.28)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.84
1.30
0.56
away arsenal — KC
RV/100 -0.84
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.396
Curveball—-1.50xwOBA 0.261
4-Seam Fastball—-2.30xwOBA 0.383
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.346
Sweeper—-2.50xwOBA 0.358
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.308
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.316
Slurve—-4.20xwOBA 0.336
home arsenal · BULK AJ Blubaugh — HOU
RV/100 0.56
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.333
Sweeper—+1.70xwOBA 0.270
Changeup—-0.80xwOBA 0.281
away · KC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.858
Σ match
2.794
Σ FRV
+19.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Carter Jensen
0.314
0.285
+2.8
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.379
0.376
+16.4
3
DH
Jac Caglianone
0.353
0.353
-8.1
4
3B
Maikel Garcia
0.317
0.304
+5.5
5
2B
Michael Massey
0.309
0.275
+6.5
6
1B
Salvador Perez
0.310
0.323
-9.2
7
RF
John Rave
0.318
0.332
+1.3
8
CF
Kyle Isbel
0.260
0.243
+3.4
9
LF
Isaac Collins
0.298
0.302
+0.9
home · HOU vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.829
Σ match
3.113
Σ FRV
-15.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Jeremy Peña
0.327
0.360
-2.7
2
DH
Yordan Alvarez
0.443
0.496
-2.7
3
3B
Isaac Paredes
0.319
0.350
+1.8
4
2B
Jose Altuve
0.271
0.298
-9.9
5
C
Yainer Diaz
0.304
0.325
-4.4
6
CF
Daulton Varsho
0.285
0.306
+3.8
7
LF
Taylor Trammell
0.289
0.328
-1.8
8
RF
Cam Smith
0.319
0.344
+2.4
9
1B
LaMonte Wade Jr.
0.272
0.306
-1.9
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carter Jensen
FRV+2.8
framing+2.7
blocking-2.2
throwing+2.3
defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)
Yainer Diaz
FRV-4.4
framing-3.8
blocking-0.5
throwing-0.2
KC · Seth Lugo
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs BOS · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
90
87(-3)
90
Location+
104
109(+5)
100
Pitching+
94
94(-1)
87
botStf
45
43(-2)
44
botCmd
56
55(-0)
53
botOvr
52
50(-2)
49
SIERA
4.74
3.18(-1.56)
5.25
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.76
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
HOU · AJ Blubaugh
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs KC · 1.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
105
104(-0)
105
Location+
94
99(+5)
71
Pitching+
98
109(+11)
85
botStf
56
61(+5)
61
botCmd
51
58(+6)
41
botOvr
55
62(+7)
48
SIERA
4.37
1.81(-2.56)
6.65
Last 3 outings: 2026-09-09 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.73
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.50R / inningband [0.45–0.54]
0.117 R/PA · 0.166 R/out · worst: Lucas Erceg (5.23)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.