Baseball Daily

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today's slate

MIN @ LAA

Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 823978past slate · free

refreshed 191h 59m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 9:38 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

72°F

humidity 64%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.20 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.20 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Taj BradleyRHP · MIN	Walbert UreñaRHP · LAA
xERA 2026	3.98	3.40
xwOBA 2026	0.308	0.286
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	-0.007
xERA 2025	4.10	—
xwOBA 2025	0.314	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.07	2.73
FIP 25-26	4.15	3.67
kwERA 25-26	3.66	4.08
K% 25-26	24.4%	22.6%
BB% 25-26	9.8%	11.6%
IP 25+26 combined	308.0	137.3
ERA actual 2026	3.81	2.88
ERA (L4)	3.28	3.28
WHIP (L4)	1.05	1.22
K% (L4)	32.7%	21.8%
BB% (L4)	10.2%	7.9%
IP/gm (L4)	6.17	6.17
L4 window	08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/25→09/12 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.14	0.59

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 0.14

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.382
Cutter—+0.80xwOBA 0.241
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.239
Curveball—-2.40xwOBA 0.233

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.59

Changeup—+1.90xwOBA 0.222
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.355
4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.317
Sweeper—+0.60xwOBA 0.234

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.773

Σ match

2.599

Σ FRV

-17.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.319	0.299	-10.9
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.275	0.260	-1.2
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.336	0.305	-3.3
4	DH	Josh Bell	0.333	0.294	-1.0
5	LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	0.480	0.363	+0.5
6	1B	Royce Lewis	0.311	0.301	-2.0
7	C	Victor Caratini	0.315	0.269	+0.6
8	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.244	0.255	+0.0
9	SS	Ben Ross	0.160	0.254	—

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.673

Σ match

2.778

Σ FRV

+12.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.311	0.329	-1.2
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.378	0.372	-3.6
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.313	0.330	+1.8
4	1B	Moisés Ballesteros	0.300	0.304	-2.6
5	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.264	0.266	+0.9
6	RF	Josh Lowe	0.288	0.296	+5.5
7	2B	Oswald Peraza	0.274	0.283	+0.8
8	CF	Jose Siri	0.305	0.339	+2.4
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.240	0.258	+8.3

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Victor Caratini

FRV+0.6
framing+2.6
blocking+1.0
throwing-3.9

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+8.3
framing+5.8
blocking-0.1
throwing+2.6

MIN · Taj Bradley

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs CLE · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-11. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 111 · Location+ 100 · Pitching+ 106 · botStf 54 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 3.75

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 83 · Pitching+ 89 · botStf 53 · botCmd 50 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 3.26

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Walbert Ureña

Last outing 2026-09-12 vs WSH · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-12. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 110 · Location+ 97 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 53 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.39

2026-08-31: Stuff+ 99 · Location+ 114 · Pitching+ 109 · botStf 50 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 1.98

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.48]

0.094 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.51)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.35–0.47]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.37)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.44	21.7	12.8	1.12	22/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.31	35.4	9.3	0.94	5/21/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.79	21.6	12.7	0.94	1/12/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.32	18.8	11.3	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.22	20.6	8.3	1.31	4/22/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.80	26.5	8.8	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	4.11	22.5	4.7	1.00	1/9/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.31	23.8	10.4	1.46	2/1/6	stable

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Bachman	SETUP	MR	4.76	23.2	13.6	1.17	1/17/4	ramping down
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.50	28.0	5.3	0.56	0/8/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.86	27.0	10.6	1.11	1/8/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	3.93	20.2	7.4	1.61	3/8/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.64	25.2	11.1	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	3.09	27.8	16.7	—	5/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.45	19.7	1.6	—	0/3/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.97	22.9	14.3	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.18	26.7	9.3	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 MIN · 5 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

4 R

10H · 1HR · 2BB · 15K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.368 · K% 35.7

Their pitching

9.3 IP · 4 ER · 14 K · relief 2.3 IP · 6 arms

LAA

5 R

8H · 0HR · 3BB · 14K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.282 · SLGe 0.250 · K% 35.9

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 15 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Walker Jenkins (CF) · 3-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR · 3 H

tough nights

Emmanuel Rodriguez (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Royce Lewis (1B) · 0-5 | 4 K0-for-5 · 4 K

LAA · standout lines

tough nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K, R0-for-4 · 3 K
Jose Siri (CF) · 0-4 | 3 K, R0-for-4 · 3 K
Tyler Heineman (C) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K