Thursday · September 17, 2026·full·gamePk 823573past slate · free
refreshed 192h 47m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citi Field
gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
76°F
humidity 79%
wind
7 mph
out to LF
precip
6%
overcast
park
NYM
open · HP→CF 21°
wind impact on total
+0.18 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Aaron NolaRHP · PHI
Nolan McLeanRHP · NYM
xERA 2026
4.07
3.71
xwOBA 2026
0.311
0.298
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.036
-0.007
xERA 2025
4.13
3.56
xwOBA 2025
0.315
0.294
Outs/TB 25-26
1.60
2.53
FIP 25-26
4.74
3.51
kwERA 25-26
3.44
3.23
K% 25-26
23.9%
27.3%
BB% 25-26
7.6%
9.3%
IP 25+26 combined
255.7
214.7
ERA actual 2026
4.69
3.24
ERA (L4)
2.22
2.62
WHIP (L4)
1.11
1.29
K% (L4)
19.6%
21.8%
BB% (L4)
9.3%
11.9%
IP/gm (L4)
6.08
6.00
L4 window
08/25→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/23→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (−2)
111 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.93 (+0.92)
4.64 (+0.79)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.62
0.49
away arsenal — PHI
RV/100 -0.62
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.227
4-Seam Fastball—-2.20xwOBA 0.389
Sinker—-2.40xwOBA 0.377
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.304
Cutter—-2.50xwOBA 0.344
home arsenal — NYM
RV/100 0.49
Sinker—+2.80xwOBA 0.274
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.393
Curveball—+0.50xwOBA 0.172
Sweeper—-3.00xwOBA 0.396
Cutter—-1.90xwOBA 0.374
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.308
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.207
away · PHI vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.805
Σ match
2.842
Σ FRV
-17.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.365
0.379
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.291
0.296
-9.4
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.385
0.390
-11.2
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.306
0.301
+10.4
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.328
0.317
-6.7
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.327
0.325
+5.4
7
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.302
0.308
-5.5
8
CF
Justin Crawford
0.289
0.282
-1.7
9
C
Garrett Stubbs
0.212
0.244
+1.6
home · NYM vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.005
Σ match
3.043
Σ FRV
+11.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.329
0.338
+1.3
2
DH
Juan Soto
0.412
0.425
-5.5
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.326
0.322
-2.2
4
RF
Carson Benge
0.338
0.337
+7.9
5
1B
Jared Young
0.322
0.332
+0.5
6
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.322
0.318
+6.3
7
C
Francisco Alvarez
0.322
0.320
+1.6
8
2B
Brett Baty
0.310
0.331
+0.2
9
LF
Nick Morabito
0.324
0.319
+1.3
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
Garrett Stubbs
FRV+1.6
framing-0.0
blocking-0.0
throwing+2.1
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Francisco Alvarez
FRV+1.6
framing+2.6
blocking-2.0
throwing+1.0
PHI · Aaron Nola
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs ATL · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
104
99(-5)
102
Location+
104
111(+8)
106
Pitching+
107
106(-1)
106
botStf
51
48(-4)
50
botCmd
57
63(+6)
58
botOvr
56
58(+2)
56
SIERA
4.00
6.01(+2.00)
4.93
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.40
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYM · Nolan McLean
Last outing 2026-09-11 vs NYY · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
109(+2)
111
Location+
95
102(+7)
86
Pitching+
105
114(+10)
101
botStf
59
61(+2)
61
botCmd
50
50(-0)
49
botOvr
55
53(-1)
52
SIERA
3.86
3.93(+0.07)
4.64
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.17
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.